Blue Owl Capital
OWL
$9.17
+8.52%
Blue Owl Capital Inc. is a leading global alternative asset manager overseeing $307.4 billion in total managed assets, with a focus on three core segments: private equity, private credit, and real estate/real assets. The company has established itself as a major player in the private markets, serving a client base of institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. The current investor narrative is dominated by acute stress in the private credit sector, with recent news highlighting fund redemptions, liquidity management actions, and a sharp sell-off in the stock as the market re-prices the risks associated with Blue Owl's significant exposure to this asset class.…
OWL
Blue Owl Capital
$9.17
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OWL 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Blue Owl Capital's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $11.92 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$11.92
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$7 - $12
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage appears limited with only 2 analysts providing estimates, suggesting this may be a mid-cap stock with constrained institutional following, which can lead to higher volatility. The consensus recommendation leans bullish based on recent institutional ratings, which show a mix of 'Outperform', 'Buy', and 'Market Outperform' actions from firms like BMO Capital, TD Cowen, and Oppenheimer in March 2026, though there have also been cautious moves like Barclays downgrading to 'Equal Weight' and Deutsche Bank to 'Hold'. The wide dispersion in recent analyst actions—from 'Strong Buy' to 'Hold'—and the lack of a published average target price or range in the provided data signals high uncertainty and low conviction regarding the company's near-term trajectory amid the private credit turmoil.
OWL Technical Analysis
The stock is in a severe and sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -52.12% and a 3-month decline of -47.68%. The current price of $8.23 is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range, at just 39% of the distance from the 52-week low of $7.95 to the high of $21.08, indicating the stock is deeply oversold and pricing in significant distress. Recent momentum remains sharply negative, with the stock down -8.76% over the past month, which aligns with and accelerates the longer-term downtrend, driven by persistent sector fears. The stock's beta of 1.205 indicates it is approximately 20% more volatile than the broader market, which has been evident in its dramatic underperformance relative to the SPY, which is up 29.52% over the past year. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $7.95, while resistance is far above at the 52-week high of $21.08; a breakdown below $7.95 would signal a complete loss of technical footing, while any meaningful recovery would require a sustained move above recent local highs near $11-12.
Beta
1.21
1.21x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-62.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$8-$21
Price range past year
Annual Return
-46.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OWL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.8% | +4.9% |
| 3m | -41.2% | +0.6% |
| 6m | -42.3% | +5.1% |
| 1y | -46.7% | +28.8% |
| ytd | -40.1% | +1.8% |
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OWL Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been robust on a year-over-year basis, with Q4 2025 revenue of $755.6 million representing a 19.68% increase from the prior year. However, sequential quarterly revenue has been volatile, declining from $727.99 million in Q3 to $755.6 million in Q4, and the net income margin remains thin at 6.31% for the latest quarter. Profitability is present but inconsistent, with Q4 2025 net income of $47.7 million and a gross margin of 62.0%, yet the trailing twelve-month EPS is a mere $0.0078, reflecting significant quarterly volatility in earnings. The balance sheet shows a high degree of financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.75, which elevates risk in a rising rate environment. Positively, the company generated substantial free cash flow of $1.20 billion on a TTM basis and maintains a current ratio of 0.28, though the low current ratio indicates limited short-term liquidity relative to obligations.
Quarterly Revenue
$755596000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.19%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.62%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is OWL Overvalued?
Given the extremely low trailing EPS of $0.0078, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio, as earnings are not a meaningful basis for valuation. The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 3.52 and a forward PE of 7.86, with the massive gap between the trailing PE of 128.08 and the forward PE implying the market expects a dramatic earnings recovery. Compared to sector averages, data is not available for a direct industry PS comparison, but the stock's valuation has compressed severely from its own historical levels. Historically, the PS ratio has collapsed from a peak above 20 in late 2024 to the current 3.52, placing it near the absolute bottom of its observable historical range and suggesting the market is pricing in either a deep value opportunity or fundamental impairment.
PE
128.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -941x~18407x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
28.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple