Nexstar Media Group
NXST
$188.63
-4.02%
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. is the largest television station owner-operator in the United States, operating over 200 stations across 116 markets and reaching an estimated 220 million people, with a core business in broadcasting, cable news, and network ownership. The company's distinct competitive identity is built on its massive local broadcast footprint, ownership of national assets like the CW network (75%) and NewsNation cable channel, and a significant stake in the Food Network, positioning it as a dominant consolidator in the traditional media landscape. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the pending regulatory approval of its merger with Tegna, which would significantly expand its reach to 80% of the U.S. population, alongside debates over the resilience of its advertising and distribution revenue streams in a challenging media environment and the strategic value of its national cable and network investments.…
NXST
Nexstar Media Group
$188.63
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy NXST Today?
Rating & Thesis: Hold. NXST is a financially leveraged bet on traditional media consolidation and cash flow stability, but near-term fundamental deterioration and sector headwinds outweigh its valuation appeal. Analyst sentiment, while qualitatively bullish from a few firms, lacks a quantified consensus target to anchor a strong buy case.
Supporting Evidence: The stock trades at a trailing PS of 1.25, near the bottom of its historical range, suggesting limited multiple compression risk. However, revenue growth is negative (-13.32% YoY in Q4), profitability has collapsed (Q4 net loss of $166M), and financial leverage is high (D/E of 3.32). The saving grace is substantial TTM free cash flow of $743 million, which supports the current operations and dividend.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are a prolonged advertising slump further hurting margins and a regulatory setback for the Tegna merger. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the PS ratio falls below 1.0 on sustained FCF, or if QoQ revenue and margin trends show clear stabilization. It would downgrade to Sell if TTM FCF declines materially below $500M or if net debt increases significantly. The stock is fairly valued relative to its challenged near-term prospects but undervalued relative to its long-term asset base and cash-generating capability.
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NXST 12-Month Price Forecast
The investment case for NXST is bifurcated: strong asset value and cash flow versus deteriorating core operations. The neutral stance reflects the high probability (55%) of a muddle-through base case where the stock treads water. The substantial cash flow is the linchpin; its sustainability is the key monitorable. The stance would upgrade to bullish on confirmation of merger approval coupled with a quarter of sequential revenue and margin improvement. It would turn bearish if TTM FCF trends decisively below $600M, indicating the core business can no longer support its financial structure.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nexstar Media Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $245.22 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$245.22
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$151 - $245
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a mid-cap stock with less institutional scrutiny which can lead to higher volatility. The consensus sentiment is unavailable as specific buy/hold/sell ratings and an average price target are not provided in the dataset, preventing a calculation of implied upside or downside from the current price of $200.78. The target price range is also not specified, but the recent institutional ratings show a pattern of reiterated 'Buy' or 'Outperform' ratings from firms like Deutsche Bank, Barrington Research, and Guggenheim as recently as March 2026, alongside a 'Neutral' from Citigroup, suggesting a generally bullish tilt among those who cover it, though the lack of a quantified target range signals uncertainty around the stock's near-term path, particularly regarding the Tegna merger and advertising recovery.
Bulls vs Bears: NXST Investment Factors
The evidence currently favors the bear case due to concrete, deteriorating fundamentals—specifically the Q4 net loss of $166 million and 13.32% revenue decline—outweighing longer-term strategic assets. The bull case rests on valuation near historical lows (PS of 1.25) and strong cash flow ($743M TTM FCF), but these are defensive attributes rather than growth catalysts. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company's dominant scale and cash flow can sustain it through a secular decline in traditional broadcast economics, or if the profitability collapse is a permanent impairment. Resolution of the Tegna merger and stabilization of advertising trends will be the critical determinants.
Bullish
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Despite recent earnings volatility, the company generated $743 million in TTM free cash flow, providing a robust financial cushion. This cash flow supports the dividend, debt service, and strategic flexibility, including the pending Tegna merger.
- Attractive Valuation Near Historical Lows: Trading at a trailing PS ratio of 1.25, NXST is near the bottom of its historical PS range, which has reached above 5.0. This suggests the market has priced in significant pessimism, creating a potential value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize.
- Dominant Market Position & Merger Upside: As the largest U.S. TV station owner, pending Tegna merger approval would expand its reach to 80% of the U.S. population. This consolidation offers significant scale benefits and potential cost synergies in a fragmented market.
- Analyst Sentiment Remains Bullish: Recent institutional ratings from Deutsche Bank, Barrington Research, and Guggenheim reiterate 'Buy' or 'Outperform' stances as of March 2026. This suggests professional confidence in the long-term thesis despite near-term headwinds.
Bearish
- Severe Profitability Deterioration: Q4 2025 saw a net loss of $166 million, a sharp reversal from a $108 million profit in Q1 2025. Gross margin compressed to 41.19% from 55.35% over the same period, indicating severe operational pressure.
- Negative Revenue Growth Trajectory: Q4 2025 revenue declined 13.32% year-over-year to $1.289 billion, with sequential quarterly revenue stagnating. This reflects a challenging advertising and distribution environment for traditional broadcast media.
- High Financial Leverage: The debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32 indicates significant financial leverage. While current liquidity is adequate (current ratio of 2.07), this debt burden increases risk if earnings and cash flow continue to deteriorate.
- Technical Downtrend & Underperformance: The stock is down 12.33% over the past month and 7.18% over three months, severely underperforming the SPY (+7.36% over one month). This negative momentum suggests a loss of investor confidence and potential further downside.
NXST Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its recent highs, having declined 12.33% over the past month and 7.18% over the past three months, which starkly contrasts with its strong 36.12% gain over the past year. Currently trading at $200.78, the price sits approximately 47% above its 52-week low of $141.66 but 21% below its 52-week high of $254.30, indicating it has retreated significantly from peak levels and is now in a corrective phase within a longer-term uptrend. Recent momentum is decisively negative, with the 1-month decline of 12.33% and 3-month decline of 7.18% signaling a sharp reversal from the prior uptrend; this divergence suggests a significant loss of bullish momentum, potentially driven by fundamental concerns or sector-wide headwinds, as evidenced by its severe underperformance relative to the SPY, which gained 7.36% over the past month. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $141.66, while immediate resistance is at the recent high near $254.30; a sustained break below the recent March low of $179.30 would signal a deeper correction, whereas reclaiming the $230-$240 zone is needed to restore bullish sentiment. With a beta of 0.915, the stock exhibits slightly lower volatility than the broader market, but the recent 29.5% maximum drawdown highlights significant downside risk during this corrective phase.
Beta
0.96
0.96x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$164-$254
Price range past year
Annual Return
+8.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NXST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -6.1% | +3.3% |
| 3m | -20.8% | +6.9% |
| 6m | +1.5% | +12.4% |
| 1y | +8.2% | +23.4% |
| ytd | -9.7% | +7.6% |
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NXST Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has turned negative, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.289 billion representing a 13.32% year-over-year decline, and the sequential trend from Q1 through Q4 2025 shows revenue stagnating in the $1.2-$1.3 billion range, indicating a challenging advertising and distribution environment. The company's profitability has deteriorated sharply, swinging from a net income of $108 million in Q1 2025 to a significant net loss of $166 million in Q4 2025, while gross margin compressed to 41.19% in Q4 from a healthier 55.35% in Q1, reflecting substantial margin pressure and likely one-time charges. The balance sheet carries a high degree of financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32, though it maintains adequate liquidity with a current ratio of 2.07; critically, the company continues to generate substantial free cash flow, with TTM FCF of $743 million, providing it with the capacity to service debt, pay its dividend (payout ratio of 1.55), and navigate the current earnings downturn.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.3B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.13%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.41%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$743000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NXST Overvalued?
Given the company reported a net loss of $166 million for Q4 2025, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 1.25, while the forward PS ratio, based on estimated revenue of $5.395 billion, implies a similar multiple, suggesting the market is not pricing in significant sales growth or multiple expansion in the near term. Compared to industry averages, specific sector PS data is not available in the provided dataset, but the stock's EV/Sales multiple of 2.49 provides an alternative enterprise value-based measure for cross-comparison once peer data is obtained. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated significantly, from a low near 1.25 currently to highs above 5.0 in recent years; trading near the bottom of its historical PS band suggests the market is pricing in substantial fundamental deterioration or sector pessimism, presenting a potential value opportunity if the company's earnings and merger prospects improve.
PE
56.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -9x~50x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are elevated. The company's profitability has swung violently, from a $108M Q1 profit to a $166M Q4 loss, with gross margin compressing over 14 percentage points in that period. This earnings volatility, combined with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32, creates vulnerability if the advertising downturn persists. Furthermore, the dividend payout ratio of 1.55 is unsustainable without strong free cash flow generation, which, while currently robust at $743M TTM, could come under pressure.
Market & Competitive Risks are significant. NXST operates in the secularly challenged traditional media sector, facing ongoing audience fragmentation and digital advertising competition. The stock's valuation, while low historically, may face further compression if sector outflows continue. Its beta of 0.915 suggests slightly lower market volatility, but the recent 29.5% maximum drawdown highlights its susceptibility to company-specific and sector shocks. Regulatory risk surrounding the Tegna merger approval adds another layer of uncertainty.
The Worst-Case Scenario involves the Tegna merger being blocked or significantly delayed, coupled with a deeper-than-expected advertising recession that further erodes margins and cash flow. This could trigger a credit rating downgrade, forcing asset sales or a dividend cut. The realistic downside could see the stock retesting its 52-week low of $141.66, representing a potential loss of approximately -29.5% from the current price of $200.78, aligning with its recent maximum drawdown figure.
FAQ
The key risks, in order of severity, are: 1) Operational Risk: Continued erosion of advertising revenue and margins, as evidenced by the 13.32% YoY revenue decline and 14-ppt gross margin compression in 2025. 2) Financial Risk: High leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32, which could become burdensome if cash flow declines. 3) Regulatory/Event Risk: The Tegna merger may be blocked or delayed, removing a key growth catalyst. 4) Sector Risk: Secular decline of linear TV broadcasting, leading to permanent multiple compression.
The 12-month forecast presents three scenarios. The Base Case (55% probability) sees the stock trading between $185 and $215, assuming the Tegna merger proceeds with delays and fundamentals stabilize. The Bull Case (25% probability) targets $254 to $280 on successful merger approval and an advertising recovery. The Bear Case (20% probability) warns of a drop to $142-$170 if the merger fails and losses accelerate. The base case is most likely, implying a relatively flat return from the current ~$200 price, with high volatility depending on merger news and quarterly earnings.
NXST appears undervalued relative to its own history but fairly valued given its current fundamentals. The trailing PS ratio of 1.25 is near the bottom of its multi-year range, which has exceeded 5.0, suggesting deep value. However, this low multiple is justified by negative revenue growth (-13.32% YoY) and recent net losses. Compared to sector peers, its EV/Sales of 2.49 provides a cross-check, but without specific peer data, the verdict is mixed. The market is pricing in significant deterioration; the stock is cheap for a reason.
NXST is a speculative buy only for value investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term horizon. At a current PS ratio of 1.25, it trades near historical lows, offering potential upside if the Tegna merger is approved and advertising stabilizes. However, it carries substantial risk from its high debt (D/E of 3.32) and severe recent profitability collapse (Q4 net loss of $166M). It is not a good buy for growth-oriented or income-focused investors due to its secular headwinds and uncertain dividend sustainability (payout ratio of 1.55).
NXST is suitable only for long-term investment with a minimum horizon of 3-5 years. The stock's high beta (0.915) and recent 29.5% drawdown make it far too volatile for short-term trading. Its thesis relies on the multi-year integration of the Tegna merger and a potential cyclical recovery in its core business, which will not materialize quickly. The dividend, while yielding 2.74%, has an unsustainable payout ratio (1.55) and is not a reliable income stream in the short term. Patient capital is required to realize the value in its assets and cash flow.
