Fox Corporation
FOXA
$65.87
+1.57%
Fox Corporation is a media and entertainment company operating through two primary segments: Cable Network Programming, which includes Fox News and Fox Business, and Television, encompassing the Fox broadcast network, local TV stations, and the ad-supported streaming platform Tubi. The company is a dominant player in live news and sports broadcasting, having strategically divested most of its entertainment content assets to Disney in 2019 to focus on its core linear and emerging digital properties. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate the secular decline of the traditional pay-TV bundle while scaling its ad-supported streaming service, Tubi, and managing the financial and political dynamics surrounding its flagship Fox News network.…
FOXA
Fox Corporation
$65.87
FOXA 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fox Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $85.63 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$85.63
6 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
6
covering this stock
Price Range
$53 - $86
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 9 analysts, indicating moderate institutional interest. The consensus sentiment leans neutral to slightly bullish, with recent institutional ratings showing a mix of 'Buy', 'Equal Weight', and 'Hold' recommendations, though a notable downgrade from Wells Fargo from 'Overweight' to 'Equal Weight' in early February 2026 signaled increased caution. The average target price and implied upside are not explicitly provided in the data, but the range of analyst actions and the lack of a strong bullish consensus suggest the upside potential is likely muted in the near term. The target price range and specific assumptions behind the high and low targets are not available in the provided dataset, but the diversity of recent ratings—from Seaport Global's upgrade to 'Buy' to multiple firms maintaining 'Equal Weight'—points to a wide range of fundamental outcomes and high uncertainty regarding the pace of the linear-to-digital transition and advertising recovery.
Bulls vs Bears: FOXA Investment Factors
The evidence currently tilts bearish, driven by the stock's severe technical underperformance, stagnant revenue growth, and high earnings volatility in the face of secular industry decline. The bull case rests almost entirely on deep-value valuation metrics and a strong balance sheet, which may not be sufficient catalysts for a rerating. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the valuation discount (P/E of 10.5x) adequately compensates for the risk of permanent erosion in the core linear TV business, or if it represents a value trap as earnings continue to be pressured. The resolution hinges on Tubi's ability to scale meaningfully and offset linear declines faster than the market expects.
Bullish
- Valuation at Multi-Year Lows: The stock's trailing P/E of 10.52x sits toward the lower end of its historical range, which has spanned from 5.5x to over 34x. This low multiple, coupled with an EV/EBITDA of 6.73x, suggests the market has priced in significant pessimism regarding the linear TV decline, offering a potential margin of safety.
- Strong Balance Sheet & Low Beta: A healthy current ratio of 2.91 and a manageable debt-to-equity of 0.62 indicate a conservative capital structure. A beta of 0.526 suggests the stock is less volatile than the market, which could provide defensive characteristics in a downturn, though it hasn't prevented recent underperformance.
- Dominant Position in Live News/Sports: Fox's core assets—Fox News and live sports broadcasting—remain highly valuable and relatively immune to subscription churn. These are key drivers of the Television segment, which generated $2.94B in the latest quarter, larger than the Cable Network segment.
- Positive TTM Free Cash Flow: Despite a weak quarterly operating cash flow of -$669M, the trailing twelve-month free cash flow stands at $2.54B. This provides the company with financial flexibility to support its dividend (yield of 1.16%) and potential share repurchases.
Bearish
- Secular Decline in Core Business: Revenue growth is stagnant at 2.05% YoY, reflecting the structural headwinds from the decline of the traditional pay-TV bundle. The company's heavy reliance on linear advertising and affiliate fees makes it vulnerable to ongoing subscriber losses.
- Extreme Earnings Volatility & Weak Margins: Profitability is highly inconsistent, with net income swinging from $717M in Q4 2025 to $229M in the latest quarter. The gross margin of 22.91% and net margin of 4.42% are low, pressured by high sports rights costs, leading to poor earnings quality.
- Sharp Technical Downtrend & Underperformance: The stock is down 12.08% YTD versus the S&P 500's +8.4% gain, showing severe underperformance. It trades only 25% above its 52-week low of $52.96 and is in a clear downtrend from its recent high of $76.39, indicating persistent selling pressure.
- Negative Quarterly Operating Cash Flow: The latest quarter reported operating cash flow of -$669 million, a significant deterioration. This raises concerns about the sustainability of cash generation amid high programming costs and potential working capital swings.
FOXA Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its recent highs, trading at $64.85, which is only 25% above its 52-week low of $52.96 and 15% below its 52-week high of $76.39. This positioning near the lower end of its annual range suggests the stock is in a value-seeking zone but remains vulnerable to further declines if the broader negative momentum persists. Recent momentum has been sharply negative, with the stock down 12.08% year-to-date, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.4%, indicating significant underperformance. However, the 1-month price change of +1.87% shows a tentative stabilization or minor rebound attempt, though this short-term strength has not yet reversed the longer-term bearish trajectory established by the 6-month price change of a mere +0.015%. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $52.96, while immediate resistance lies at the recent breakdown level near $70, with major resistance at the 52-week high of $76.39. The stock's beta of 0.526 indicates it is approximately 47% less volatile than the broader market, which historically provided defensive characteristics but has not shielded it from a significant drawdown of -28.89% from its peak.
Beta
0.53
0.53x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-28.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$53-$76
Price range past year
Annual Return
+17.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FOXA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.2% | +4.0% |
| 3m | +16.7% | +8.2% |
| 6m | +1.7% | +11.5% |
| 1y | +17.5% | +24.3% |
| ytd | -10.7% | +8.3% |
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FOXA Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is stagnant and exhibits high quarterly volatility typical of a media company dependent on advertising cycles and sports rights; the most recent quarterly revenue was $5.182 billion, representing a modest 2.05% year-over-year growth. Segment data reveals the Television segment, at $2.937 billion, is the larger contributor compared to the Cable Network Programming segment at $2.275 billion, indicating the broadcast business carries significant weight. Profitability is present but inconsistent, with net income of $229 million in the latest quarter and a gross margin of 22.91%, which is low for a media company and reflects high content costs, particularly for live sports. The operating margin of 11.42% and net margin of 4.42% show the company converts a small portion of revenue to bottom-line profit, and margin trends have been choppy quarter-to-quarter, pressured by programming expenses. The balance sheet is relatively healthy with a strong current ratio of 2.91 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62, indicating a conservative capital structure. However, cash flow generation has been weak recently, with operating cash flow at -$669 million for the quarter, though trailing twelve-month free cash flow remains positive at $2.536 billion, providing some financial flexibility for dividends and share repurchases.
Quarterly Revenue
$5.2B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.02%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.22%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FOXA Overvalued?
Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 10.52x, while the forward PE is 11.52x, indicating the market expects only a slight moderation in earnings or is pricing in minimal growth, as the forward multiple is only marginally higher. Compared to industry averages, Fox's valuation appears mixed; its EV/EBITDA of 6.73x and EV/Sales of 1.95x suggest a discount to many media peers, likely reflecting concerns over linear TV decline, while its Price/Sales ratio of 1.46x is also relatively low. The modest premium of the forward PE over the trailing PE (approximately 9.5%) does not signal strong growth expectations, aligning with the company's mature and challenged core business model. Historically, the stock's own trailing PE has fluctuated significantly, from a low near 5.5x to highs above 34x in recent quarters; the current level near 10.5x sits toward the lower end of this multi-year range, suggesting the market has priced in considerable pessimism, potentially offering a margin of safety if fundamentals stabilize.
PE
10.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -82x~35x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Fox faces significant financial risk from its high earnings volatility, with net income swinging from $827M to $229M over recent quarters, driven by the lumpy nature of sports rights amortization and advertising cycles. The company's low gross margin of 22.91% and net margin of 4.42% expose it to further compression if content costs rise or ad pricing weakens. While the balance sheet is solid (D/E of 0.62), the recent quarter's operating cash flow of -$669M is a red flag, indicating potential strain in converting profits to cash, which could threaten the dividend and share buybacks.
Market & Competitive Risks: The primary market risk is the accelerated secular decline of the linear TV ecosystem, upon which Fox's two segments are entirely dependent. Trading at a forward P/E of 11.52x, the stock is not demanding, but it faces valuation compression risk if earnings estimates are cut further. Competitive risks are intense, as Fox's live sports rights are perpetually up for bid against deep-pocketed tech and streaming rivals, while its news audience faces fragmentation and political cyclicality. The stock's low beta of 0.526 offers little protection against these company-specific headwinds, as evidenced by its -28.89% drawdown from the 52-week high.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a rapid acceleration of cord-cutting, leading to double-digit declines in affiliate fees, coupled with a cyclical advertising recession that crushes TV segment revenue. This could trigger multiple compression as the 'value' narrative evaporates, and the stock re-tests its 52-week low of $52.96. A realistic downside from the current price of $64.85 is approximately -18% to that level. If Tubi fails to gain meaningful traction and operating cash flow remains negative, the dividend could be at risk, exacerbating the sell-off. A sustained break below $53 could see the stock fall toward the $45-$50 range, representing a total downside of 25-30%.
