Freeport-McMoRan
FCX
$61.48
-12.62%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a leading global mining company primarily engaged in the production of copper, gold, and molybdenum, operating in the Basic Materials sector within the Copper industry. The company is a dominant player as one of the world's largest copper miners by volume, with a diversified portfolio of 10 mines including major stakes in Grasberg (Indonesia), Cerro Verde (Peru), and Morenci (Arizona). The current investor narrative is overwhelmingly focused on the company's leveraged exposure to the structural copper deficit driven by electrification and AI infrastructure demand, though recent insider selling activity and the stock's powerful rally have sparked debates about near-term valuation and potential overextension.…
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
$61.48
Related headlines
FCX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Freeport-McMoRan's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $79.92 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$79.92
6 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
6
covering this stock
Price Range
$49 - $80
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for FCX appears limited, with only 6 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, indicating this large-cap stock may have less concentrated institutional coverage than peers, which can contribute to higher volatility. The estimated EPS range for the forward period is wide, from $1.05 to $1.52, with an average of $1.26, and the revenue estimate range spans from $30.7 billion to $40.9 billion, averaging $35.3 billion; this wide dispersion in targets signals high uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's near-term financial performance, likely driven by volatile commodity price forecasts. Recent institutional rating actions show a generally bullish bias with multiple 'Buy' or 'Overweight' reiterations from firms like UBS, Scotiabank, and JP Morgan in early 2026, though a notable downgrade from Bernstein from 'Outperform' to 'Market Perform' in January 2026 suggests some analysts are growing cautious after the stock's massive rally.
FCX Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +113.4% and a 6-month gain of +70.5%. With a current price of $70.21, it is trading at approximately 99.3% of its 52-week high of $70.705, indicating the stock is at the very top of its annual range, which reflects extreme bullish momentum but also raises concerns about overextension and vulnerability to a pullback. Recent short-term momentum is exceptionally strong and accelerating, with the stock up +26.6% over the past month and +19.6% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the SPY's respective gains of +7.36% and +2.67%; this acceleration suggests the uptrend is entering a potentially parabolic phase, though the extreme relative strength versus the market also signals elevated risk. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $32.12, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $70.705; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the bull run, while a failure here may trigger a consolidation or correction, especially given the stock's high beta of 1.473, which indicates it is approximately 47% more volatile than the broader market, amplifying both upside and downside moves.
Beta
1.47
1.47x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$34-$71
Price range past year
Annual Return
+74.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FCX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.9% | +8.5% |
| 3m | +1.8% | +2.8% |
| 6m | +48.6% | +4.6% |
| 1y | +74.7% | +32.3% |
| ytd | +18.4% | +3.9% |
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FCX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been volatile, with the most recent Q4 2025 revenue of $5.633 billion representing a -4.2% year-over-year decline, continuing a trend of deceleration from stronger quarters earlier in the year (Q2 2025 revenue was $7.582 billion); segment data shows refined copper products ($1.16B) and copper cathode ($2.132B) were the largest contributors in the latest period, though the overall trend suggests revenue is highly sensitive to fluctuating copper prices rather than pure volume growth. The company remains profitable with Q4 2025 net income of $406 million, but profitability metrics have compressed, as the quarterly gross margin of 18.05% and net margin of 7.21% are down significantly from the Q2 2025 peaks of 34.11% and 10.18%, respectively, indicating margin pressure likely from rising costs or lower realized metal prices. The balance sheet is healthy with a strong current ratio of 2.29 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.61, while the company generates substantial cash, evidenced by trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $5.61 billion and an ROE of 11.66%, suggesting it can internally fund growth initiatives and shareholder returns without excessive reliance on external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$5.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.04%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.18%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$5.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FCX Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 33.25x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 17.45x, based on estimated EPS of $1.26; this large gap implies the market is pricing in a substantial recovery in earnings over the next year, aligning with bullish copper price forecasts. Compared to sector averages (data not available for direct comparison), the trailing P/E of 33.25x appears elevated for a cyclical miner, suggesting the stock trades at a premium justified only by exceptional growth expectations tied to the copper super-cycle narrative. Historically, the stock's own trailing P/E has ranged widely; the current 33.25x is above the recent Q4 2025 historical P/E of 45.13x but has risen sharply from levels near 20x seen in mid-2025, indicating the market is already pricing in significant future earnings improvement, leaving limited room for multiple expansion and increasing sensitivity to any earnings disappointment.
PE
33.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 9x~50x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
