BHP Hits Record High as Copper Becomes New King

BHP Group reached a record high of approximately $74.27 on February 17, 2026, marking a fundamental shift in global economic drivers. For the first time in its 170-year history, BHP's copper division generated more underlying earnings than its iron ore division, with copper EBITDA reaching $7.95 billion versus iron ore's $7.5 billion.

The company reported a 22% jump in underlying profit to $6.2 billion, but the real story lies in the internal earnings mix. This crossover represents the structural end of the Iron Age driven by Chinese urbanization and the beginning of the Copper Age fueled by Western AI and electrification needs.

BHP's transformation effectively removes the 'China discount' traditionally applied to miners, re-rating the stock from a cyclical value play to a secular growth proxy. The company has successfully pivoted its portfolio toward future-facing commodities aligned with digital age requirements rather than industrial age demands.

The shift was accompanied by a 46% dividend increase to 73 cents per share, representing a 60% payout ratio that signals strong confidence in future cash flows. BHP also announced a $4.3 billion silver streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals to fund copper expansion without stressing its balance sheet.

The copper supercycle is being driven by two powerful forces: inelastic commercial demand from AI infrastructure and strategic government support. AI training data centers require an astonishing 47 tonnes of copper per megawatt compared to just 2 tonnes for traditional data centers, creating unprecedented demand.

This demand is price inelastic because hyperscale developers cannot delay multi-billion dollar projects due to copper price fluctuations. They must secure materials regardless of cost to stay competitive in the AI arms race, creating a stable floor for copper prices.

The U.S. government's Project Vault initiative provides additional price support by establishing a $12 billion Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve. This program acts as a government-backed put option, stockpiling up to 60 days' worth of essential metals and de-risking new mine development for producers like BHP.

BHP's operational excellence gives it a competitive edge in capitalizing on this trend. While competitors face production disruptions, BHP achieved record throughput at Escondida, the world's largest copper mine. The company's ability to fund growth while maintaining strong dividends makes it uniquely positioned.