Stifel Financial Corp.
SF
$0.00
+0.08%
Stifel Financial Corp. is a diversified financial services provider operating in the capital markets industry. It is a globally competitive firm with a core narrative built on its transformation through acquisitions into a significant wealth manager and investment bank.
SF
Stifel Financial Corp.
$0.00
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SF Today?
Based on a synthesis of the provided data, the objective assessment for Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) is a 'Buy'. This rating is supported by a strong analyst consensus (mean target of $94.04, 27% upside), attractive forward P/E of 10.0, and solid fundamental growth in revenue and profitability. The recent price decline presents a potential entry point relative to analyst targets, though investors should be prepared for near-term volatility inherent to the financial sector.
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SF 12-Month Price Forecast
The data presents a mixed picture: compelling valuation and growth fundamentals are weighed against clear negative price momentum. The base case for a recovery to analyst targets is plausible, but confidence is tempered by the stock's high beta and recent underperformance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Stifel Financial Corp.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.
Average Target
$0.00
1 analysts
Implied Upside
—
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$0 - $0
Analyst target range
Wall Street analyst consensus is positive, with an average target price of $94.04, representing a 27% upside from the current price of $73.92. The target range is between $86.67 and $103.33. Based on 8 analysts, the mean recommendation is 2.25, which corresponds to a 'Buy' rating.
Bulls vs Bears: SF Investment Factors
Stifel presents a compelling value proposition with strong fundamentals and analyst support, but faces significant near-term headwinds from market volatility and recent price weakness. The stock's current pullback may offer a buying opportunity for long-term investors, but short-term risks remain elevated.
Bullish
- Strong Analyst Consensus: Average target price of $94.04 implies 27% upside from current levels.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Forward P/E of 10.0 suggests market expects significant earnings growth.
- Solid Revenue & Profit Growth: Q4 revenue grew 11.2% YoY; net income increased to $264M.
- Healthy Financial Position: Strong free cash flow of $993M and moderate D/E of 37.7.
Bearish
- Recent Significant Price Weakness: Stock down 17.6% over the last month, underperforming the S&P 500.
- High Beta and Market Sensitivity: Beta of 1.13 makes the stock more volatile than the broader market.
- Elevated Trailing P/E Ratio: Trailing P/E of 18.9 is high for a financial services firm.
- Cyclical Industry Exposure: Capital markets business is sensitive to economic downturns and deal flow.
SF Technical Analysis
The stock's overall trend over the past six months has been negative, with the price declining 1.08% from $74.73 on October 2, 2025, to $73.92 on March 31, 2026. The price peaked near $89 in early January 2026 before a significant correction. Short-term performance shows significant weakness, with the stock down 11.45% over the last three months and 17.56% over the last month, underperforming the S&P 500 by -6.82% and 5.07% over those respective periods. The current price of $73.92 sits near the middle of its 52-week range of $48.85 to $89.83, representing a pullback of approximately 18% from its recent highs, indicating a consolidation phase after the earlier decline.
Beta
1.13
1.13x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$49-$90
Price range past year
Annual Return
+17.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -2.1% | -3.7% |
| 3m | -11.4% | -4.1% |
| 6m | -0.4% | -2.1% |
| 1y | +17.1% | +16.1% |
| ytd | -13.5% | -3.9% |
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SF Fundamental Analysis
Revenue for Q4 2025 was $1.75 billion, showing an 11.2% year-over-year growth from Q4 2024. Profitability improved significantly, with the net income margin expanding to 15.1% in Q4 2025 from 15.5% in the year-ago quarter, and quarterly net income rising from $244 million to $264 million. The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 37.66 and generates substantial cash flow, with free cash flow over the trailing twelve months reported at $993 million, indicating strong financial health. Operational efficiency metrics are solid, with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 11.73% and a Return on Assets (ROA) of 1.69%, reflecting effective use of shareholder capital and company assets.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.8B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.11%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.89%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$993333000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SF Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric used is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is 18.9, while the forward P/E is 10.0, suggesting the market expects significant earnings growth. The stock also trades at a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 2.08 and an Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) ratio of 1.77. Peer comparison data is not available in the provided inputs to contextualize these valuation multiples against industry averages.
PE
12.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~31x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
The primary risks for Stifel Financial are market-related and cyclical. As a capital markets firm with a beta of 1.13, its performance is highly correlated with broader market sentiment and economic activity. A downturn could significantly impact investment banking fees and trading revenue, which comprise roughly one-third of total revenue. The stock has already demonstrated high volatility, with a 27.97% max drawdown and recent underperformance versus the S&P 500. Financial risks appear contained, given the moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 37.7 and strong free cash flow generation. However, operational risks include potential margin compression if interest income declines or if the wealth management segment faces outflows. The lack of peer valuation data also makes it difficult to assess if its current multiples are justified or vulnerable to sector-wide re-rating.
FAQ
The key risks are market cyclicality and recent price momentum. As a capital markets firm, SF's revenue is sensitive to economic conditions and financial market activity. The stock has a beta of 1.13, meaning it typically moves more than the market, and has recently underperformed, falling 17.6% in the past month. Other risks include potential margin pressure, a slowdown in M&A or trading activity, and a broader sector re-rating that could compress its valuation multiples despite solid fundamentals.
The 12-month outlook is cautiously optimistic with a base case target range of $86 to $94, aligning with analyst projections. This forecast assumes the stock recovers from recent weakness as its solid revenue growth (11.2% YoY in Q4) and profitability (15.1% net margin) support the valuation. The bull case (30% probability) sees it reaching the high end of analyst targets ($103+), while the bear case (20% probability) could see it test lower support levels if market conditions worsen.
The valuation picture is mixed. SF appears undervalued based on forward-looking metrics, with a forward P/E of 10.0 suggesting strong expected earnings growth. However, its trailing P/E of 18.9 is relatively high for a financial firm. The primary case for undervaluation stems from the 27% gap between the current price ($73.92) and the analyst average target ($94.04). The Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.08 and EV/Sales of 1.77 provide additional context but lack peer comparison.
Based on the data, SF appears to be a good buy for investors seeking value in the financial sector, provided they have a medium-term horizon. The stock trades at a significant discount to the analyst average target price of $94.04 and has a low forward P/E of 10.0, suggesting the market has priced in excessive pessimism. However, its high beta of 1.13 means it is suitable primarily for those comfortable with above-average volatility.
SF is more suitable for a medium to long-term investment horizon. The short-term outlook is clouded by significant negative momentum and high volatility (beta 1.13). However, its strong fundamentals, diversified business model, and attractive forward valuation suggest potential for appreciation over a 12-24 month period as the company executes its strategy and potentially narrows the gap to analyst targets. Short-term traders face heightened risk from the stock's recent downtrend and sensitivity to market swings.