Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
GS
$863.04
+0.33%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is a leading global investment bank operating in the Financial - Capital Markets industry. It is a storied financial institution with a dominant position in global M&A advisory and has strategically expanded into more stable fee-based businesses like asset and wealth management.…
GS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
$863.04
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy GS Today?
Based on a synthesis of the provided data, the objective assessment for Goldman Sachs is a Hold. The stock shows strong profitability metrics (ROE, net margin) and appears reasonably valued on a forward P/E and PEG basis. However, these positives are counterbalanced by severe red flags in free cash flow and leverage, creating a balanced but uncertain risk-reward profile. The lack of a clear consensus from analyst ratings (a mix of Hold, Neutral, etc.) supports this middle-ground stance. Investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term view may find value, but significant near-term headwinds warrant caution.
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GS 12-Month Price Forecast
The analysis yields a neutral stance with medium confidence. The compelling valuation (PEG 0.61, Forward P/E 12.99) and strong profitability are fundamentally attractive. However, the alarming free cash flow and high leverage present substantial financial risks that cannot be ignored, creating a balanced but uncertain outlook for the next 12 months.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1121.95 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$1121.95
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$690 - $1122
Analyst target range
Data not available. The provided analyst data contains forward estimates for EPS and revenue but does not include consensus target prices or a ratings distribution from Wall Street analysts. The recent institutional ratings show a mix of 'Hold', 'Neutral', 'Market Perform', 'Sector Perform', and 'Overweight' actions from various firms, but a quantitative summary of analyst consensus is not present in the data.
Bulls vs Bears: GS Investment Factors
Goldman Sachs presents a classic investment bank dichotomy: strong profitability and market position offset by significant financial leverage and cyclical risks. The valuation appears reasonable on a P/E basis, but concerning cash flow and high debt levels temper the outlook. The strategic shift towards stable management fees is a long-term positive but does not fully mitigate near-term macro vulnerabilities.
Bullish
- Strong ROE and Profitability: ROE of 13.74% and net margin of 13.73% indicate efficient capital use and solid earnings power.
- Undervalued PEG Ratio: PEG ratio of 0.61 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth potential.
- Strategic Business Diversification: Expansion into stable fee-based asset and wealth management reduces reliance on volatile trading.
- Strong Relative Market Performance: Outperformed S&P 500 over 1, 3, 6, and 12-month periods, showing resilience.
Bearish
- Negative Free Cash Flow: Trailing FCF of -$47.22B is a major red flag for financial flexibility and sustainability.
- High Leverage and Low Liquidity: Debt-to-equity of 4.88 and current ratio of 0.83 indicate significant financial risk.
- Revenue Decline and Volatility: Q4 2025 revenue fell 6.56% YoY, highlighting cyclical sensitivity of core businesses.
- Elevated Valuation Multiples: EV/EBITDA of 29.96 is high, suggesting premium pricing relative to operating earnings.
GS Technical Analysis
The stock's overall trend over the past six months has been volatile but positive, rising approximately 8.55% from a close of $779.38 on October 2, 2025, to $845.99 on March 31, 2026. The price reached a peak near $984.70 during this period but has since pulled back significantly.
Short-term performance has been weak, with the stock down 1.58% over the past month and down 3.76% over the past three months. This underperformance is notable as the stock has shown relative strength against the broader market, with a 1-month relative strength of +3.67% versus the S&P 500's -5.25% decline.
The current price of $845.99 is positioned roughly in the middle of its 52-week range of $439.38 to $984.70, indicating it is not at an extreme high or low. The stock has recovered from a recent low near $782 in mid-March but remains well below its yearly high.
Beta
1.34
1.34x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$439-$985
Price range past year
Annual Return
+53.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | GS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.1% | -3.6% |
| 3m | -5.6% | -4.0% |
| 6m | +9.2% | -2.0% |
| 1y | +53.3% | +16.2% |
| ytd | -5.6% | -3.8% |
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GS Fundamental Analysis
Revenue and profitability have shown mixed trends. For Q4 2025, revenue was $30.13 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 6.56% from Q4 2024. However, net income for Q4 2025 was $4.62 billion, an increase from $4.11 billion in the prior-year quarter. The net margin for the trailing period is reported at 13.73%, indicating solid profitability.
The company's financial health shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.88, which is typical for a large investment bank but indicates significant leverage. The current ratio is 0.83, suggesting potential liquidity constraints in covering short-term obligations with current assets. Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months is deeply negative at -$47.22 billion, which is a significant concern and warrants monitoring.
Operational efficiency, as measured by Return on Equity (ROE), is strong at 13.74%. The Return on Assets (ROA) is a modest 0.99%, which is reasonable for a capital-intensive financial institution. The company maintains a dividend yield of 1.92% with a payout ratio of 30.72%.
Quarterly Revenue
$30.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.06%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.51%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-47.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is GS Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric used is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is 16.00, and the forward P/E is 12.99, suggesting the market expects earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.61, based on trailing metrics, indicates the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate.
Other valuation metrics include a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 2.20 and a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 2.20. The Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is 29.96. Peer comparison data is not available in the provided inputs, so a relative valuation against industry averages cannot be performed.
PE
16.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 4x~23x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
30.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Goldman Sachs faces a multifaceted risk profile. Financially, the deeply negative free cash flow of -$47.22 billion over the TTM is a critical concern, potentially limiting strategic flexibility and dividend sustainability. The high debt-to-equity ratio (4.88) and a current ratio below 1 (0.83) compound liquidity and solvency risks, typical for investment banks but elevated here.
Operational and market risks are significant. Revenue declined year-over-year in Q4 2025, underscoring sensitivity to capital markets activity, M&A cycles, and trading volumes. The stock's high beta (1.34) indicates it will likely amplify broader market moves. Recent news highlights sector-specific contagion risk, as seen in the February 2026 sell-off triggered by panic in private credit markets, demonstrating how stress in one area can impact traditional banks.
Macroeconomic and regulatory risks persist. The company's performance is heavily tied to interest rates, geopolitical stability (as noted in recent oil price spikes), and Federal Reserve policy. Any delay in rate cuts or a recessionary environment could pressure investment banking fees and trading revenues. Furthermore, the high EV/EBITDA multiple suggests little margin for error if earnings disappoint.
FAQ
The key risks are financial and cyclical. The most severe is the massive negative free cash flow, which threatens financial flexibility. High leverage (Debt/Equity 4.88) and low liquidity (Current Ratio 0.83) amplify solvency risk. Operationally, GS is exposed to volatile capital markets, as seen in its recent revenue decline. Sector-wide shocks, like the recent private credit panic, can also trigger sharp sell-offs in the stock.
Based on the provided data, a 12-month price forecast is bifurcated. The base case (50% probability) sees a range of $800-$950, aligning with current valuation multiples and forward earnings estimates. The bull case (30%) targets $950-$1050 on strong capital markets recovery. The bear case (20%) warns of a drop to $650-$800 if macro conditions worsen and cash flow issues persist. The overall AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence.
GS sends mixed signals on valuation. It appears potentially undervalued based on its PEG ratio of 0.61, which compares price to earnings growth. Its forward P/E of 12.99 is also not excessive. Conversely, other metrics like the high EV/EBITDA of 29.96 and Price-to-Book of 2.20 suggest a premium. Overall, the core earnings-based valuation looks fair to slightly undervalued, but this is tempered by the company's significant financial leverage.
GS presents a mixed picture. It is trading at a reasonable forward P/E of 12.99 and has a strong Return on Equity of 13.74%, which are positive signs. However, critical weaknesses like deeply negative free cash flow (-$47.22B TTM) and high debt (D/E of 4.88) make it a higher-risk proposition. For most investors, it is not a clear-cut 'good buy' but rather a Hold for existing positions, requiring careful monitoring of its financial health.
GS is more suitable for a long-term investment horizon. Its short-term performance is highly volatile and tied to unpredictable market cycles and news flow, as evidenced by its recent 3-month decline of -3.76%. A long-term view allows time for its strategic expansion into stable asset and wealth management (30% of revenue) to bear fruit and for the company to potentially address its cash flow challenges. Short-term traders face significant uncertainty.