Hims & Hers Health
HIMS
$21.36
+0.99%
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. operates a direct-to-consumer telehealth platform that connects patients with healthcare providers for treatment in areas such as sexual health, hair loss, skincare, mental health, and weight loss. The company has established itself as a disruptive player in the healthcare sector by offering a convenient, subscription-based model for prescription medications and over-the-counter products, bypassing traditional insurance. The current investor narrative is dominated by a high-stakes strategic pivot, marked by a recent legal settlement and partnership with Novo Nordisk for weight-loss drugs, which has ignited debate over the stock's volatility and its long-term growth prospects amidst significant acquisition activity and competitive pressures in the telehealth space.…
HIMS
Hims & Hers Health
$21.36
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy HIMS Today?
Rating & Thesis: HIMS is rated a Hold. The core thesis is that while the forward valuation (13.7x P/E) is compelling given 28.4% revenue growth, severe technical damage, decelerating fundamentals, and high execution risk from its strategic pivot warrant a cautious stance until evidence of a successful turnaround emerges. This aligns with the mixed but generally neutral analyst sentiment, which includes recent upgrades to 'Neutral' alongside 'Hold' ratings.
Supporting Evidence: The Hold rating is supported by four key data points. First, the forward P/E of 13.7x is reasonable for a profitable growth company. Second, revenue growth, while decelerating, remains robust at 28.4% YoY. Third, the company is free cash flow positive ($72.9M TTM) and profitable. Fourth, the stock is deeply oversold, trading near 27.6% of its 52-week range, which limits near-term downside but does not guarantee a rebound.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are the failure of the Novo Nordisk partnership to materially accelerate growth, and further margin compression from competitive or cost pressures. This Hold would upgrade to a Buy if the stock stabilizes above key technical support ($15-$16) and Q1 2026 earnings show a re-acceleration of revenue growth above 30% YoY while maintaining net margins. It would downgrade to a Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 20% YoY or if the stock breaks decisively below its 52-week low of $13.74. The stock is currently fairly valued relative to its forward earnings potential but carries a high risk premium.
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HIMS 12-Month Price Forecast
The 12-month outlook for HIMS is a coin flip between stabilization and further deterioration. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock grinding higher towards the low $20s as growth stabilizes, but significant upside requires flawless execution of its new strategy—a low-probability event given the company's recent operational volatility. The high beta of 2.315 guarantees a rocky path regardless of outcome. The stance would upgrade to bullish on confirmation of re-accelerating revenue growth above 30% and expanding margins. It would turn bearish on a breakdown below the $13.74 support level, which would signal a new phase of capitulation.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hims & Hers Health's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $27.77 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$27.77
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $28
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for HIMS appears limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates for future EPS and revenue, indicating this is a stock with less institutional research scrutiny which can lead to higher volatility. The consensus leans toward a neutral to cautiously optimistic outlook, as evidenced by recent rating actions including upgrades from Citigroup and B of A Securities to 'Neutral' and a new 'Buy' from Needham in March 2026, juxtaposed with several reiterated 'Hold' or 'Market Perform' ratings. The wide range of estimated revenue for the coming year, from a low of $4.07 billion to a high of $5.28 billion, signals high uncertainty and divergent views on the company's growth prospects, particularly following its major acquisition and Novo Nordisk partnership.
Bulls vs Bears: HIMS Investment Factors
The investment debate for HIMS is a classic battle between compelling valuation and deteriorating momentum. The bull case is anchored by a reasonable forward P/E of 13.7x, a resolved legal overhang with a new strategic partnership, and robust underlying revenue growth. The bear case is driven by severe technical damage, decelerating growth and margins, and high financial leverage that amplifies all risks. Currently, the bearish evidence holds stronger sway, given the stock's persistent downtrend, extreme volatility, and clear operational deceleration. The single most important tension is whether the Novo Nordisk partnership and international expansion can re-accelerate growth to justify the forward earnings multiple before margin pressures and competitive threats erode the business model further.
Bullish
- Forward P/E of 13.7x Prices in Growth: The forward P/E ratio of 13.7x is a sharp discount to the trailing P/E of 56.9x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth. This valuation is reasonable for a company with 28.4% YoY revenue growth and positive free cash flow of $72.9 million TTM.
- Strategic Novo Nordisk Partnership Resolves Legal Risk: The recent settlement and partnership with Novo Nordisk for weight-loss drugs removes a major legal overhang and opens a high-growth market segment. This strategic pivot, highlighted by a 43% single-day stock surge on March 9, 2026, provides a clear new growth catalyst.
- Robust Revenue Growth Despite Deceleration: Q4 2025 revenue of $617.8 million grew 28.4% year-over-year, maintaining a strong pace even as growth sequentially decelerated from 73.0% in Q2. The company continues to scale effectively, with analyst revenue estimates for the coming year averaging $4.63 billion.
- Profitable with Strong Free Cash Flow: The company is GAAP profitable with Q4 net income of $20.6 million and generates substantial free cash flow ($72.9 million TTM). A high gross margin of 71.94% provides a solid foundation for future operating leverage as the business scales.
Bearish
- Severe Growth Deceleration and Margin Pressure: Revenue growth has decelerated sharply from 73.0% YoY in Q2 2025 to 28.4% in Q4 2025. Concurrently, net margin compressed from 7.80% to 3.33% over the same period, raising concerns about the sustainability of its growth story and path to higher profitability.
- Extreme Volatility and Persistent Downtrend: The stock has a beta of 2.315, indicating it is over 130% more volatile than the market, and has suffered a 78.06% maximum drawdown. It remains in a powerful downtrend, down 38.7% over the past three months, signaling persistent selling pressure and a lack of investor confidence.
- High Financial Leverage Amplifies Risk: A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.34 indicates significant financial leverage. While current free cash flow can service this debt, any operational misstep or growth slowdown could strain the balance sheet and amplify downside risk in a market downturn.
- Competitive & Regulatory Threats in Core Markets: Recent news highlights a wave of low-cost generic semaglutide from India, which could pressure the economics of the weight-loss drug market central to HIMS's new partnership. The telehealth sector also faces ongoing regulatory scrutiny and intense competition.
HIMS Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 27.53% over the past year and a staggering 63.99% over the last six months. With a current price of $19.43, it is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, positioned at approximately 27.6% of the distance from its 52-week low of $13.74 to its high of $70.43, indicating the stock is deeply oversold and potentially presenting a value opportunity, though it remains a 'falling knife' scenario. Recent momentum shows severe weakness, with the stock down 24.92% over the past month and 38.69% over the past three months, a sharp acceleration of the longer-term downtrend that signals persistent selling pressure and a lack of near-term catalysts to arrest the decline. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $13.74, while resistance looms far above near the 52-week high of $70.43; a breakdown below $13.74 would signal a new phase of capitulation, while any recovery would face immense overhead supply. The stock's extreme volatility is quantified by a beta of 2.315, meaning it is over 130% more volatile than the broader market, a critical factor for risk management given its dramatic 78.06% maximum drawdown.
Beta
2.31
2.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-78.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$14-$70
Price range past year
Annual Return
-24.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HIMS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -13.8% | +4.9% |
| 3m | -31.8% | +0.6% |
| 6m | -63.9% | +5.1% |
| 1y | -24.5% | +28.8% |
| ytd | -36.1% | +1.8% |
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HIMS Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth remains robust but shows signs of sequential deceleration; Q4 2025 revenue reached $617.8 million, representing a strong 28.4% year-over-year increase, yet this marks a slowdown from the 49.1% YoY growth seen in Q3 2025 ($599.0 million) and the 73.0% YoY growth in Q2 2025 ($544.8 million). The company is profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $20.6 million and a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $72.9 million, but profitability metrics have weakened quarter-over-quarter, as evidenced by a net margin of 3.33% in Q4, down from 7.80% in Q2 2025, while gross margin remains healthy at 71.94%. The balance sheet shows a leveraged position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.34, indicating significant financial leverage, though liquidity is adequate with a current ratio of 1.90; the positive free cash flow generation of $72.9 million (TTM) and a return on equity of 23.73% suggest the company can service its debt and fund operations internally, but the high leverage amplifies risk in a downturn.
Quarterly Revenue
$617818000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.28%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.71%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$72858000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is HIMS Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is elevated at 56.9x, while the forward P/E is substantially lower at 13.7x, indicating the market is pricing in significant earnings growth expectations for the coming year. Compared to sector averages, the stock's Price-to-Sales ratio of 3.11x and EV-to-Sales of 2.15x are not directly comparable without a provided industry benchmark, but the forward P/E of 13.7x suggests a valuation that anticipates normalized profitability. Historically, the stock's own valuation has compressed dramatically; its current trailing P/E of 56.9x is below its recent historical peak of 89.5x at the end of Q4 2025 but remains above levels seen during its earlier loss-making phases, suggesting the market is still assigning a premium for its growth trajectory, albeit a reduced one following the severe price decline.
PE
56.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -68x~375x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
52.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: HIMS faces significant risks from its high financial leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.34, which could constrain strategic flexibility and amplify losses if growth stalls. Profitability is under pressure, as net margin compressed from 7.80% in Q2 2025 to 3.33% in Q4 2025, even as revenue growth decelerated sharply from 73.0% to 28.4% YoY over the same period. The company's recent $1+ billion acquisition for international expansion introduces execution risk and integration challenges that could further pressure margins and cash flow, which currently stands at a positive $72.9 million TTM.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's extreme volatility (beta of 2.315) makes it highly sensitive to market sentiment and sector rotations, a major risk given its 78.06% max drawdown. Competitively, the core weight-loss drug market—central to its Novo Nordisk partnership—faces imminent disruption from low-cost generic semaglutide, as recent news highlights, which could compress margins and limit growth. Valuation compression remains a persistent threat; while the forward P/E of 13.7x appears reasonable, the stock's history of trading at much higher multiples (trailing P/E of 56.9x) suggests further de-rating is possible if growth disappoints.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a failure to execute on the Novo Nordisk partnership and international acquisition, leading to a growth stall below 20% YoY. Concurrently, generic competition in weight-loss drugs intensifies, crushing gross margins from their current 71.9%. This could trigger a liquidity crisis due to the high debt load, forcing dilutive equity financing. In this adverse scenario, the stock could re-test and break its 52-week low of $13.74, representing a potential loss of approximately -29% from the current price of $19.43, with further downside possible if sentiment completely evaporates.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Operational Risk: Sharp growth deceleration (from 73% to 28% YoY) and margin compression (net margin down from 7.8% to 3.33%). 2) Financial Risk: High debt-to-equity ratio of 2.34 amplifies downside. 3) Market Risk: Extreme stock volatility with a beta of 2.315 and a 78% max drawdown. 4) Competitive Risk: The nascent weight-loss drug partnership faces immediate threat from low-cost generic semaglutide, as per recent news.
The 12-month forecast presents three scenarios. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $22 and $30, assuming growth stabilizes around 25-28%. The bull case (25% probability) targets $40 to $55 on successful execution of the new strategy and re-accelerated growth. The bear case (25% probability) warns of a drop to $13-$18 if growth stalls further and the stock breaks key support. The most likely outcome is the base case, hinging on the company stabilizing its growth rate in the mid-20% range.
HIMS appears fairly valued based on forward earnings but carries a high risk premium. The trailing P/E of 56.9x is elevated, but the forward P/E of 13.7x prices in significant expected earnings growth to an estimated $1.86 per share. Compared to its own history, valuation has compressed dramatically from a P/E peak of 89.5x. The market is paying a reasonable price for future growth but is discounting that price heavily due to operational deceleration, high leverage (D/E of 2.34), and extreme volatility.
HIMS is a speculative buy only for risk-tolerant investors with a high conviction in its strategic pivot. The forward P/E of 13.7x is attractive for a company growing revenue at 28%, and the stock is deeply oversold. However, with a beta of 2.315, a 78% max drawdown, and decelerating growth, it carries substantial risk. It could be a good buy for investors who believe the Novo Nordisk partnership will successfully re-accelerate growth and are willing to withstand extreme volatility.
Given its high volatility (beta 2.315) and current state of strategic transition, HIMS is not suitable for short-term trading except for very experienced, risk-aware traders. For long-term investors, it requires a minimum 2-3 year horizon to allow its new partnerships and acquisitions to prove out. The lack of a dividend and earnings visibility further supports a longer-term, growth-oriented holding period, but investors must be prepared for a turbulent ride and have high risk tolerance.