Eli Lilly and Company
LLY
$988.09
-1.67%
Eli Lilly and Company is a global pharmaceutical leader focused on developing and commercializing medicines in key therapeutic areas including cardiometabolic health, immunology, neuroscience, and oncology. The company is a dominant market leader, particularly renowned for its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have positioned it at the forefront of the rapidly expanding obesity and diabetes treatment markets. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on Lilly's execution within the massive GLP-1 opportunity, its ability to expand manufacturing capacity to meet unprecedented demand, and the recent FDA approval of its oral weight-loss drug Foundayo, which is viewed as a significant growth catalyst that broadens the total addressable market rather than a threat to its existing injectable franchises.…
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$988.09
Related headlines
LLY 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Eli Lilly and Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1284.52 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$1284.52
11 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
11
covering this stock
Price Range
$790 - $1285
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Eli Lilly is robust, with 11 analysts providing estimates, and the institutional sentiment leans heavily bullish, as evidenced by recent actions from major firms like JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank maintaining Overweight/Buy ratings. The consensus recommendation is Buy, with an average target price implied by the estimated EPS of $63.40 and a forward P/E of 22.62x, which suggests a price target near $1434, representing approximately +43% upside from the current price of $1004.92, indicating strong bullish conviction. The target range is wide, with estimated EPS spanning from $56.86 to $68.30, reflecting uncertainty around the exact pace of sales growth, manufacturing scale-up, and competitive dynamics; the high end of the range assumes successful market expansion and sustained premium pricing, while the low end likely factors in potential setbacks or increased competition. The recent pattern of analyst actions shows stability, with no major downgrades in the provided data, reinforcing the positive long-term thesis despite the stock's recent volatility.
LLY Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend for Eli Lilly has been a volatile consolidation within a downtrend from its highs, as evidenced by a 1-year price change of +37.04% but a 6-month decline of -1.99%. The stock is currently trading at $1004.92, which is approximately 61% of its 52-week range ($623.78 to $1133.95), indicating it has retreated significantly from its peak and is now in a middle-ground position that reflects a balance between growth optimism and near-term valuation concerns. Recent short-term momentum shows a sharp divergence, with a strong 1-month gain of 11.04% contrasting with a 3-month loss of -3.37%, suggesting a potential recovery attempt or oversold bounce from the March lows near $878, though this nascent uptrend has yet to confirm a reversal of the intermediate-term weakness. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $623.78, while immediate overhead resistance resides near the 52-week high of $1133.95; a sustained breakout above the recent trading range would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, whereas a breakdown below the March lows could indicate deeper correction. With a beta of 0.481, the stock has demonstrated significantly lower volatility than the broader market (SPY) over the past year, which is unusual for a growth story but may reflect its massive market cap and perceived defensive characteristics within healthcare.
Beta
0.48
0.48x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-30.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$624-$1134
Price range past year
Annual Return
+30.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | LLY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +6.6% | +4.0% |
| 3m | -4.6% | +8.2% |
| 6m | -5.9% | +11.5% |
| 1y | +30.5% | +24.3% |
| ytd | -8.5% | +8.3% |
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LLY Fundamental Analysis
Lilly's revenue trajectory is exceptionally strong, with Q4 2025 revenue of $19.29 billion representing a staggering 42.6% year-over-year growth, and sequential quarterly revenue has climbed consistently from $12.73 billion in Q1 to the Q4 peak, indicating accelerating commercial execution primarily driven by its GLP-1 franchises. The company is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $6.64 billion and a robust gross margin of 85.05%, and profitability has expanded dramatically year-over-year as economies of scale from its blockbuster products flow through, with net income margin improving from 32.6% in Q4 2024 to 34.4% in Q4 2025. The balance sheet and cash flow position is solid but leveraged for growth, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.60 indicating significant debt usage, offset by strong profitability metrics like an ROE of 77.78% and substantial annualized free cash flow of $8.97 billion, which provides ample internal funding for its massive capital expenditure plans to expand manufacturing capacity.
Quarterly Revenue
$19.3B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.42%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.85%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$9.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is LLY Overvalued?
Given a positive net income of $6.64 billion, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 46.76x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 22.62x, indicating the market is pricing in a substantial acceleration in earnings growth over the next year, largely driven by the continued ramp of Mounjaro and Zepbound. Compared to industry averages, Lilly's trailing P/E of 46.76x and Price/Sales of 14.81x command a significant premium, justified by its superior growth profile (42.6% YoY revenue growth) and leading market position in the transformative GLP-1 sector, though this premium also embeds high expectations for flawless execution. Historically, the stock's current trailing P/E of 46.76x is below its own extreme highs seen in recent quarters (e.g., 67.20x in Q1 2025) but remains elevated compared to its longer-term historical range, suggesting the market is still pricing in optimistic long-term growth, leaving the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth expectations moderate.
PE
46.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -2221x~206x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
35.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
