Liberty Media Corporation Series C Liberty Formula One Common Stock
FWONK
$86.20
-1.89%
Liberty Media Corporation, through its Series C Liberty Formula One tracking stock (FWONK), is a media and entertainment holding company with a primary focus on the global motorsport industry, specifically owning and operating the Formula 1 World Championship and MotoGP. It is the definitive market leader in premium global motorsport, controlling the commercial rights, media distribution, and live event operations for these premier racing series. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain its post-pandemic growth trajectory, particularly through expanding media rights deals, increasing sponsorship, and growing its live event footprint, while also navigating the cyclicality inherent in its business and the integration of its MotoGP acquisition.…
FWONK
Liberty Media Corporation Series C Liberty Formula One Common Stock
$86.20
FWONK 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Liberty Media Corporation Series C Liberty Formula One Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $112.06 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$112.06
9 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
9
covering this stock
Price Range
$69 - $112
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 9 analysts, and the consensus sentiment appears mixed with recent actions showing both upgrades and downgrades. The average revenue estimate for the coming period is $6.36 billion, with a high estimate of $6.75 billion and a low of $6.06 billion, indicating a relatively tight range of expectations around the top line. While a specific consensus price target is not provided in the data, the institutional ratings show a recent shift: Wells Fargo upgraded from Underweight to Equal Weight in February 2026, and Bernstein upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform in January 2026, signaling a potential improvement in analyst sentiment following the stock's decline. The target price range implied by analyst actions is not quantified here, but the presence of both 'Overweight' and 'Equal Weight' ratings suggests a moderate bullish to neutral bias, with the recent upgrades potentially indicating a belief that the downside is limited or that fundamentals are stabilizing.
Bulls vs Bears: FWONK Investment Factors
The investment debate for FWONK centers on a clash between strong underlying business fundamentals and a punishing market valuation reset. The bull case is supported by robust revenue growth, strong free cash flow generation, a solid balance sheet, and the company's unique market-leading assets. The bear case is driven by a severe technical downtrend, a premium valuation vulnerable to compression, and extreme quarterly earnings volatility that undermines predictability. Currently, the bear side has stronger near-term evidence, as the stock's price action and high short interest reflect deep skepticism about its ability to sustain growth and justify its multiples. The single most important tension is whether the company's high-margin, media-rights-driven growth narrative can overcome the market's perception of its business as cyclical and operationally volatile. The resolution of this tension—specifically, whether upcoming quarters demonstrate margin stability and consistent profitability—will dictate the stock's direction.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth & FCF: Q4 2025 revenue grew 38.5% YoY to $1.616B, demonstrating robust post-pandemic recovery. The company generates substantial free cash flow, with TTM FCF of $741M, providing a solid foundation for growth investments and shareholder returns.
- Solid Balance Sheet & Liquidity: A manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66 and a current ratio of 1.46 indicate a healthy financial position with low leverage and adequate short-term liquidity. This provides resilience against economic downturns and flexibility for strategic moves like the MotoGP integration.
- Improving Analyst Sentiment: Recent analyst upgrades from Wells Fargo (Underweight to Equal Weight) and Bernstein (Market Perform to Outperform) in early 2026 suggest a belief that the stock's sharp decline has created value or that fundamentals are stabilizing, potentially signaling a sentiment bottom.
- Defensive Volatility Profile: A beta of 0.739 indicates the stock is about 26% less volatile than the broader market, offering a defensive characteristic during market downturns. This was evidenced by its -1.07% 1-month return versus SPY's -4.28% decline.
Bearish
- Premium Valuation vs. Peers: A trailing P/E of 40.3x and forward P/E of 41.9x represent a significant premium to typical Entertainment sector averages (20x-25x). This high multiple leaves the stock vulnerable to valuation compression if growth expectations falter.
- Severe Technical Downtrend: The stock is down 16.19% over 6 months and trades near 80% of its 52-week range, just above the $75.26 low. This pronounced downtrend reflects persistent negative momentum and bearish sentiment, with a high short ratio of 3.17 indicating significant speculative bearish bets.
- Extreme Earnings & Margin Volatility: Profitability is highly inconsistent, with Q4 2025 gross margin collapsing to 6.68% from 38.4% in Q3, highlighting severe cost volatility tied to event timing. This lumpiness makes forecasting difficult and increases earnings risk.
- Weak Relative Performance: The stock has dramatically underperformed the market, with a 1-year relative strength of -24.6% versus the SPY. This underperformance, despite strong revenue growth, suggests the market is discounting the company's prospects due to cyclicality or integration risks.
FWONK Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -2.43% and a more severe 6-month decline of -16.19%. As of the latest close of $87.86, the price is trading at approximately 80% of its 52-week range ($75.26 to $109.36), indicating it is much closer to its yearly lows than its highs, which suggests a potential value opportunity but also reflects significant negative momentum and bearish sentiment. Recent momentum shows a slight deceleration in the sell-off, with a 1-month loss of -1.07% compared to a steeper 3-month drop of -10.38%; this relative stability over the past month, especially against a weak broader market (SPY down -4.28% over the same period), suggests the stock may be finding a base or entering a consolidation phase after its sharp decline. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $75.26, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $109.36; a sustained break below support would signal a continuation of the downtrend, whereas a move above resistance would require a significant bullish catalyst. The stock's beta of 0.739 indicates it is about 26% less volatile than the broader market, which, combined with a short ratio of 3.17, points to a defensive profile but also significant bearish speculative positioning.
Beta
0.74
0.74x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-24.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$75-$109
Price range past year
Annual Return
+7.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FWONK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.9% | -2.0% |
| 3m | -10.0% | -4.8% |
| 6m | -19.2% | -2.1% |
| 1y | +7.1% | +30.4% |
| ytd | -12.1% | -3.4% |
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FWONK Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been strong but volatile on a quarterly basis; the most recent Q4 2025 revenue was $1.616 billion, representing a robust 38.5% year-over-year growth, though this follows a Q3 where revenue was $1.078 billion. The multi-quarter trend shows significant seasonality and lumpiness, with Q2 2025 revenue at $1.341 billion and Q1 2025 at $447 million, indicating the business is heavily event-driven. The Formula 1 segment, which generated $1.203 billion in the latest period, is the clear primary growth driver. The company is profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $102 million, but profitability metrics are inconsistent; the trailing net margin is 12.4%, while the Q4 gross margin was a thin 6.68%, a sharp contraction from the 38.4% gross margin in Q3, highlighting significant cost volatility, likely tied to event timing and costs. The operating margin of 13.5% is more stable and indicates the core business can generate healthy profits from its operations. The balance sheet is solid with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66, and the company generated substantial trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $741 million, yielding a strong FCF margin. The current ratio of 1.46 indicates adequate short-term liquidity, and an ROE of 7.15% points to moderate but improving returns on shareholder equity, suggesting the company is generating enough cash to fund operations and growth internally.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.38%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.06%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$741000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FWONK Overvalued?
Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 40.3x and a forward P/E of 41.9x based on estimated EPS; the minimal gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests the market expects earnings growth to be largely in line with current levels, not accelerating dramatically. Compared to the Entertainment industry, a trailing P/E of 40.3x is at a significant premium to typical sector averages (often in the 20x-25x range), reflecting the market's valuation of Formula 1's unique, high-margin media rights and global platform. Historically, the stock's own P/E has been highly volatile, ranging from negative figures during loss-making periods to over 230x in early 2025; the current 40.3x is below the peak but above the lows seen in late 2024, suggesting the valuation has compressed from optimistic levels but still embeds expectations for steady growth and profitability.
PE
40.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -103x~231x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
22.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks stem primarily from extreme earnings volatility and cost structure unpredictability. The Q4 2025 gross margin of 6.68% was a severe contraction from 38.4% in Q3, illustrating how event timing and costs can dramatically impact profitability. While the company is profitable with a 12.4% net margin, this inconsistency increases the risk of earnings misses. Furthermore, revenue concentration in the Formula 1 segment ($1.203B in Q4) creates dependency on the success of a single sport, though the MotoGP acquisition aims to diversify this. The business remains heavily event-driven, leading to lumpy quarterly results that challenge investor confidence.
Market & Competitive Risks are dominated by valuation compression. Trading at a trailing P/E of 40.3x—a premium to sector norms—the stock is priced for sustained high growth. Any deceleration in media rights deal growth, sponsorship revenue, or live event attendance could trigger multiple contraction. The stock's low beta of 0.739 offers some defensive appeal but does not shield it from sector-wide derating of growth stocks. Competitive risks are moderated by F1's entrenched market leadership, but the broader competition for entertainment dollars and potential regulatory changes in key markets like Europe pose long-term threats.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a perfect storm of cyclical downturn and execution missteps. A global economic slowdown could pressure sponsorship and advertising revenues while increasing event costs. Concurrently, a failure to successfully integrate MotoGP or secure expected media rights renewals at premium rates could break the growth narrative. This could trigger analyst downgrades and a rush for exits by momentum investors. The realistic downside is significant, with the stock potentially re-testing its 52-week low of $75.26. From the current price of $87.86, this implies a potential loss of approximately -14%. A more severe bear case, factoring in multiple compression towards sector averages, could see losses approach -30% to -35%.