Revolution Medicines, Inc. Common Stock
RVMD
$136.30
+41.35%
Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage precision oncology company focused on developing novel targeted therapies for RAS-addicted cancers, a notoriously difficult-to-treat class of tumors. The company is a leading disruptor in the field, leveraging its proprietary chemical biology platform to create small-molecule inhibitors that bind directly to active RAS variants, a target previously considered 'undruggable.' The current investor narrative is driven by the company's progression of its RAS(ON) inhibitor pipeline, with significant attention on clinical data readouts and the competitive landscape following Merck's recent multi-billion dollar acquisition of a peer, Terns Pharmaceuticals, which has intensified focus on the valuation and strategic positioning of assets in this high-stakes oncology segment.…
RVMD
Revolution Medicines, Inc. Common Stock
$136.30
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RVMD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Revolution Medicines, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $177.19 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$177.19
6 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
6
covering this stock
Price Range
$109 - $177
Analyst target range
Insufficient analyst coverage data is available in the provided dataset to determine a consensus price target, Buy/Hold/Sell distribution, or target range. The data shows 6 analysts providing estimates, but no explicit price targets or recommendations are listed. This is not uncommon for clinical-stage biotechs, where coverage can be limited and focused on specific catalysts rather than continuous price targets. The absence of a clear consensus target signals that the stock's valuation is highly speculative and driven by binary clinical outcomes and competitive dynamics, leading to potentially higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The available institutional ratings data shows a uniformly bullish sentiment among the firms that have published recent actions, with all ten entries from firms like Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, and RBC Capital being Buy, Overweight, or Outperform equivalents, with no downgrades or sell ratings. This strong buy-side bias from covering analysts underscores the high-conviction, high-risk narrative around the company's platform, but the lack of quantified price targets makes it difficult to gauge the expected magnitude of upside or the dispersion of opinions on fair value.
Bulls vs Bears: RVMD Investment Factors
The bull case for RVMD is powered by its leadership in a transformative oncology field, validated by recent peer M&A, and supported by a strong balance sheet and unanimous analyst optimism. The bear case highlights the extreme financial and clinical risks of a pre-revenue company burning over $900M annually, trading at a speculative multi-billion dollar valuation. Currently, the bear side presents stronger near-term evidence due to the accelerating cash burn, high short interest, and negative price momentum following a parabolic rally. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company's RAS(ON) platform can successfully translate its scientific promise into clinical and commercial outcomes before its substantial cash reserves are depleted, justifying its current premium valuation against a backdrop of intensifying competition.
Bullish
- Leading RAS(ON) Platform in High-Stakes Field: RVMD is a leader in targeting RAS-addicted cancers, a historically 'undruggable' target with massive commercial potential. The recent $6.7B Merck acquisition of peer Terns Pharmaceuticals validates the strategic value and M&A potential of assets in this space, directly supporting RVMD's $15.1B market cap valuation.
- Explosive Long-Term Price Momentum: The stock has delivered a staggering 186.4% return over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 29.5% gain. This powerful uptrend, despite a recent pullback, reflects high-conviction investor belief in the pipeline's future value and positions the stock well above its 52-week low of $33.25.
- Strong Balance Sheet with Minimal Debt: The company maintains a robust liquidity position with a current ratio of 7.14 and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.097. This financial fortress provides ample runway to fund aggressive R&D spending, evidenced by a $365.5M equity raise in Q4 2025, without the immediate pressure of debt obligations.
- Unanimous Analyst Buy-Side Sentiment: All ten recent institutional analyst actions are Buy/Overweight equivalents, indicating a high-conviction, bullish narrative from covering firms. This strong consensus, despite the lack of explicit price targets, underscores professional confidence in the company's strategic positioning and platform technology.
Bearish
- Pre-Revenue with Massive, Accelerating Cash Burn: The company has zero product revenue and a TTM free cash flow burn of -$913.7M. Losses are accelerating, with the Q4 2025 net loss of -$364.9M nearly doubling the -$194.6M loss from Q4 2024, indicating rapidly increasing R&D costs with no near-term commercial offset.
- Extreme Valuation with No Traditional Metrics: Valuation is purely speculative, as traditional metrics are meaningless (PS=0, PE=-13.4). The $15.1B market cap is a bet on future revenue estimated at $3.68B, implying the stock trades at over 4x forward sales expectations, a rich premium for a clinical-stage asset with binary outcomes.
- High Short Interest and Recent Negative Momentum: A short ratio of 6.36 indicates significant bearish bets against the stock. This skepticism is reflected in recent price action, with the stock down 3.2% over the past month while the S&P 500 rose 0.46%, signaling a loss of momentum and potential profit-taking after the massive rally.
- Pipeline Binary Risk and Competitive Intensity: The entire investment thesis hinges on clinical success in a fiercely competitive field. The Merck-Terns deal highlights both the prize and the competition. Any clinical setback or negative data readout could trigger a severe de-rating, as seen in the stock's 24.95% max drawdown from its peak.
RVMD Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained long-term uptrend but has experienced a significant correction from its recent peak. With a 1-year price change of +186.4%, the trend is overwhelmingly positive, yet the current price of $96.43 sits at approximately 51% of its 52-week range ($33.25 to $124.49), indicating a substantial pullback from the highs. This positioning suggests the stock is in a consolidation phase after a parabolic move, offering a potential entry point for momentum investors but also reflecting heightened volatility and profit-taking. Recent momentum has turned sharply negative, diverging from the powerful longer-term trend. The stock has declined 18.7% over the past 3 months and 3.2% over the past month, signaling a clear deceleration and a period of consolidation or correction following the explosive rally that peaked in January 2026. This divergence could signal a healthy pullback to digest gains, but the magnitude of the 3-month decline warrants caution regarding a potential trend change if key support levels fail. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $33.25, but more immediate support is likely around the recent lows in the $92-$94 range seen in late March 2026. Resistance is firmly established at the 52-week high of $124.49. A breakout above this level would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, while a sustained breakdown below $92 could open the door to a deeper correction. With a beta of 1.01, the stock's volatility is essentially in line with the broader market, but its price action has been driven by idiosyncratic clinical and competitive catalysts, making technical levels highly sensitive to news flow.
Beta
1.01
1.01x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$34-$137
Price range past year
Annual Return
+281.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RVMD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +43.7% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +13.6% | -1.1% |
| 6m | +175.0% | +3.1% |
| 1y | +281.6% | +28.5% |
| ytd | +72.5% | +0.6% |
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RVMD Fundamental Analysis
The company is a pre-revenue, clinical-stage biotech with no product sales, as evidenced by quarterly revenue of $0 for the last eight reported periods. The sole revenue segment, 'Collaboration Revenue,' contributed $7.0 million, but this is immaterial relative to its massive R&D burn. The fundamental investment case is entirely predicated on the future potential of its pipeline, not current commercial performance, with growth trajectory measured by clinical milestones rather than financial statements. The company is deeply unprofitable, as expected for its development stage, with a net loss of $364.9 million in Q4 2025 and an EPS of -$1.90. Gross margin and operating margin data are not meaningful (0 or negative) as the company has no cost of goods sold from product revenue. Losses have been widening sequentially, with the Q4 2025 net loss of $364.9 million significantly higher than the Q3 2025 loss of $305.2 million and the Q4 2024 loss of $194.6 million, reflecting a substantial ramp in research and development expenses as the company advances its clinical programs. The balance sheet remains strong but is being consumed by high operating burn. The company has a robust current ratio of 7.14 and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.097, indicating ample liquidity and minimal leverage. However, free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is deeply negative at -$913.7 million, and operating cash flow in Q4 2025 was -$274.2 million. The company is heavily dependent on external financing to fund its operations, as evidenced by $365.5 million in net cash from financing activities in Q4 2025, primarily from common stock issuance. Return on equity is deeply negative at -69.3%, which is typical for a company investing heavily in R&D with no earnings.
Quarterly Revenue
$0.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-913731000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RVMD Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income and EBITDA, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. However, with negligible revenue of $0, the trailing PS ratio is 0, and forward-looking estimates must be used. Analyst consensus estimates revenue of approximately $3.68 billion, implying the market is valuing the stock based on long-term commercial potential far in the future. The selected metric is therefore forward-looking expectations, as traditional multiples are not applicable for a pre-revenue biotech with a multi-billion dollar market cap. Peer comparison using standard valuation multiples is challenging as the company has no earnings or sales. Valuation is instead driven by comparables analysis of recent M&A transactions in the precision oncology space (e.g., Merck's acquisition of Terns) and the net present value of the pipeline. The stock's $15.1 billion market cap reflects a high-conviction bet on the clinical and commercial success of its RAS platform. Historically, the stock's valuation has expanded dramatically alongside clinical progress. The current market cap of $15.1 billion is a fraction of its peak earlier in 2026, suggesting the market has recalibrated expectations following the January 2026 spike. The price-to-book ratio has fluctuated significantly, from a low around 2.2 in late 2023 to a high of 9.3 at the end of 2025, and now sits at 9.28, indicating the market still assigns a substantial premium to its asset base (intellectual property and cash) relative to its history, though off the recent highs.
PE
-13.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -22x~-6x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-13.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are severe and center on the company's complete lack of revenue and prodigious cash burn. With quarterly revenue of $0 and a net loss that widened from -$194.6M in Q4 2024 to -$364.9M in Q4 2025, the operating burn rate is accelerating dramatically. The company depends entirely on external financing, as shown by the $365.5M raised from stock sales in Q4 2025, leading to shareholder dilution. Free cash flow of -$913.7M (TTM) indicates the $15.1B market cap is supported not by earnings but by future hopes, creating vulnerability to any disruption in capital markets.
Market & Competitive Risks are elevated due to the stock's speculative valuation and intense sector competition. Trading at a Price-to-Book ratio of 9.28, near its historical high, the stock is priced for perfection and susceptible to multiple compression if clinical progress stalls. The Merck-Terns acquisition news highlights both the strategic value and the fierce competition in the RAS inhibitor space, where any rival success could diminish RVMD's perceived first-mover advantage. With a beta of 1.01, the stock's volatility is market-aligned, but its price is driven by binary clinical catalysts, making it highly sensitive to trial data and competitive announcements.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a material clinical setback for its lead RAS(ON) inhibitor candidate, such as a failed pivotal trial or emergence of superior safety/efficacy data from a competitor. This could trigger a cascade of analyst downgrades, a freeze in capital markets, and a rapid re-rating of the pipeline's net present value. Realistic downside could see the stock retracing to its 52-week low of $33.25, representing a potential loss of approximately -65% from the current price of $96.43. A more immediate bear-case target could be the recent support breakdown level near $92, implying a -5% downside, but a full de-rating on clinical failure would be far more severe.