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Joby Aviation

JOBY

$8.49

-7.11%

Joby Aviation is a pre-revenue transportation company developing an all-electric, vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) air taxi designed for commercial passenger service. It is a first-mover and technology leader in the nascent Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) industry, aiming to revolutionize urban and regional transportation. The current investor narrative is dominated by its high-risk, high-reward profile, with intense focus on its progress toward FAA certification, its strategic partnerships with Uber and Nvidia for operational networks and autonomous flight, and the significant capital required to fund its path to commercialization amidst a backdrop of volatile sentiment.…

Should I buy JOBY
Bobby Quantitative Model
Apr 23, 2026

JOBY

Joby Aviation

$8.49

-7.11%
Apr 23, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Joby Aviation is a pre-revenue transportation company developing an all-electric, vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) air taxi designed for commercial passenger service. It is a first-mover and technology leader in the nascent Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) industry, aiming to revolutionize urban and regional transportation. The current investor narrative is dominated by its high-risk, high-reward profile, with intense focus on its progress toward FAA certification, its strategic partnerships with Uber and Nvidia for operational networks and autonomous flight, and the significant capital required to fund its path to commercialization amidst a backdrop of volatile sentiment.
Should I buy JOBY

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JOBY 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $8.49
Average Target $8.49
High Target $9.763499999999999
Low Target $7.2165

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Joby Aviation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $11.04 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$11.04

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$7 - $11

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

Analyst coverage is limited, with only 4 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is still a niche, speculative stock with limited institutional following. The institutional ratings show a mixed but recently improving picture, with Needham maintaining a Buy and HC Wainwright upgrading from Neutral to Buy in late February 2026, while JP Morgan maintains an Underweight. This limited coverage can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The average revenue estimate for the next period is approximately $2.0 billion, with a wide range from $1.33 billion to $2.53 billion. This wide dispersion highlights the extreme uncertainty and lack of consensus on the company's near-term commercial trajectory. The high target assumes successful certification and rapid fleet deployment, while the low target likely prices in further delays or execution challenges. The absence of a consensus price target in the data underscores the difficulty in applying traditional valuation frameworks to a pre-commercial company like Joby.

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JOBY Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced and sustained downtrend, having declined 41.12% over the past six months and 40.25% over the past three months. Currently trading at $9.22, the price sits at approximately 44% of its 52-week range ($5.61 to $20.95), indicating it is much closer to its annual lows than highs, which suggests either a deep value opportunity or a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals and sentiment. The 1-year price change of +56.54% is misleading as it is heavily influenced by a price spike from a much lower base earlier in the period, with the recent trajectory being decisively negative. Recent short-term momentum is bearish and aligns with the longer-term downtrend, with the stock down 3.35% over the past month, significantly underperforming the SPY's 7.36% gain, resulting in a stark relative strength reading of -10.71. This consistent negative momentum across all measured periods (1m, 3m, 6m, YTD) signals persistent selling pressure and a lack of near-term catalysts to arrest the decline. The stock's beta of 2.68 indicates it is 168% more volatile than the broader market, which amplifies both downside and upside moves and is a critical factor for risk management. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $5.61, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $20.95. A breakdown below the $5.61 support would signal a new phase of capitulation and likely target even lower prices. Conversely, a sustained move above the recent trading range near $10 would be necessary to suggest a potential reversal. The extreme beta of 2.68 means position sizing must account for the stock's propensity for wild swings, which are typical for a pre-revenue, speculative growth company.

Beta

2.68

2.68x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-61.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$6-$21

Price range past year

Annual Return

+37.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodJOBY ReturnS&P 500
1m-5.6%+8.5%
3m-39.1%+2.8%
6m-47.4%+4.6%
1y+37.8%+32.3%
ytd-40.9%+3.9%

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JOBY Fundamental Analysis

Revenue is nascent but showing explosive growth on a small base, with Q4 2025 revenue of $30.8 million representing a 559.65% year-over-year increase. The revenue segment data shows the Passenger segment contributed $21.2 million, while 'Product and Service, Other' contributed $9.7 million. However, this growth is from a near-zero base, and the absolute revenue figure remains minuscule relative to the company's $10.9 billion market capitalization, highlighting the speculative nature of the investment based on future potential rather than current operations. The company is deeply unprofitable, with a Q4 2025 net loss of $121.5 million and a gross margin of just 1.67%, which deteriorated from 55.44% in Q3. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow is a massive -$564.8 million, underscoring the immense capital burn required for R&D and scaling. The net margin for the latest quarter was -394.14%, and the operating margin was -670.57%, indicating costs are vastly outstripping the minimal revenue being generated, which is expected for a company in this pre-commercial stage. The balance sheet shows a strong current ratio of 24.09 and a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.043, indicating high liquidity and minimal leverage. However, this is offset by the severe cash burn, with operating cash flow of -$153.2 million in Q4 alone. The company is funding itself through equity issuance, as evidenced by $594.4 million in common stock issued in Q4. Return on equity is deeply negative at -65.96%, and return on assets is -30.00%, reflecting the inefficient use of capital at this pre-revenue stage. Financial health is currently stable due to a strong cash position from recent raises, but the runway is finite given the burn rate.

Quarterly Revenue

$30836000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+559.65%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.01%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-564752000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Passenger
Product and Service, Other

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Valuation Analysis: Is JOBY Overvalued?

Given the company's negative net income and EBITDA, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is an astronomical 204.14x, reflecting the market's extreme growth expectations for a company with minimal current revenue. A forward-looking metric is not calculable from the provided data, but the sheer size of the multiple indicates the stock is priced for perfection and distant future success. A peer comparison against industry averages is not meaningful as Joby operates in a unique, pre-commercial industry subset with no direct public comparables. The valuation is not driven by traditional sector multiples but by discounted cash flow models projecting massive future addressable markets. The current multiple implies investors are assigning a multi-billion dollar valuation to a company that generated just $30.8 million in revenue last quarter, a premium that can only be justified by assuming rapid, successful scaling and market domination. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has been volatile and stratospheric, reaching 382.97x as of Q4 2025. The current PS of 204.14x, while still extremely high, represents a significant contraction from recent historical peaks. This suggests some market skepticism has been priced in, moving from 'blue sky' optimism to a more cautious, yet still highly speculative, valuation. Trading well below its own recent historical valuation band could indicate either a buying opportunity if execution improves or a rational derating as timelines extend.

PE

-11.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -37x~711x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-12.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Related headlines

Bearish
Beta Technologies: The Overlooked eVTOL Stock Is Too Risky
Bearish
Archer Aviation's Production Stalls: A Reality Check for eVTOL
Bullish
Nvidia's $26B AI Gamble: A Bullish Bet on the Future
Bullish
Joby & Uber's Air Taxi Venture: 5 Key Investor Takeaways
Bullish
Joby Aviation Teams With Nvidia in eVTOL Race

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