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Intercontinental Exchange

ICE

$156.95

-0.95%

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) is a vertically integrated operator of major financial exchanges, most notably the New York Stock Exchange, and provides a wide range of ancillary data and technology services. The company is a dominant market infrastructure player, operating a leading derivatives exchange and holding a critical position in global commodity futures, particularly with its ICE Brent crude contract. The current investor narrative centers on the company's resilience and growth trajectory across its three core segments—Exchanges, Fixed Income & Data Services, and Mortgage Technology—amidst a volatile macroeconomic environment, with recent attention focused on the performance of its data services and mortgage technology businesses as key drivers of recurring revenue.…

Should I buy ICE
Bobby Quantitative Model
Apr 27, 2026

ICE

Intercontinental Exchange

$156.95

-0.95%
Apr 27, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) is a vertically integrated operator of major financial exchanges, most notably the New York Stock Exchange, and provides a wide range of ancillary data and technology services. The company is a dominant market infrastructure player, operating a leading derivatives exchange and holding a critical position in global commodity futures, particularly with its ICE Brent crude contract. The current investor narrative centers on the company's resilience and growth trajectory across its three core segments—Exchanges, Fixed Income & Data Services, and Mortgage Technology—amidst a volatile macroeconomic environment, with recent attention focused on the performance of its data services and mortgage technology businesses as key drivers of recurring revenue.
Should I buy ICE

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ICE 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $156.95
Average Target $156.95
High Target $180.49249999999998
Low Target $133.4075

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Intercontinental Exchange's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $204.03 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$204.03

7 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$126 - $204

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

Analyst coverage for ICE is limited but consistent, with data indicating 7 analysts providing estimates. The consensus sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, with recent institutional ratings from firms like Barclays and UBS maintaining 'Overweight' and 'Buy' stances, while Morgan Stanley holds an 'Equal Weight' rating. The average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, but analyst estimates point to an average EPS forecast of $12.50 on average revenue of $13.97 billion, which can be used to infer valuation expectations. The target price range is implied by the variance in estimates, with a low EPS of $11.89 and a high of $12.89, representing a relatively tight spread of about 8%, which signals stronger analyst conviction and lower uncertainty regarding the company's near-term earnings trajectory compared to a wider dispersion.

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ICE Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -2.78% and a more severe 3-month decline of -8.37%, significantly underperforming the broader market which is up 30.59% over the same year. Currently trading at $158.45, the price sits at approximately 24% of its 52-week range, calculated from a low of $143.17 to a high of $189.35, indicating it is much closer to its yearly lows than its highs, which suggests a potential value opportunity but also reflects persistent selling pressure and negative sentiment. Recent momentum shows a modest 1-month gain of 1.03%, which is a stark underperformance compared to the SPY's 8.7% gain over the same period, as evidenced by a relative strength of -7.67; this divergence suggests the stock is experiencing a weak, lagging recovery attempt within a longer-term bearish context, failing to capture broader market upside. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $143.17, while resistance looms at the 52-week high of $189.35; a sustained break below support could signal a continuation of the downtrend, whereas a move above resistance would require a significant fundamental catalyst. The stock's beta of 1.043 indicates volatility roughly in line with the market, but its recent price action, including a maximum drawdown of -22.74%, highlights specific company or sector-related risks that investors must consider for position sizing.

Beta

1.04

1.04x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-22.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$143-$189

Price range past year

Annual Return

-3.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodICE ReturnS&P 500
1m+2.8%+12.8%
3m-9.4%+2.8%
6m+4.2%+4.0%
1y-3.8%+29.9%
ytd-1.9%+4.9%

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ICE Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $3.14 billion representing a 3.63% year-over-year increase; however, examining the quarterly sequence from Q1 to Q4 2025 shows revenue fluctuating between $3.00 billion and $3.26 billion, indicating stable but not accelerating top-line expansion. The company is highly profitable, posting a Q4 2025 net income of $840 million and a robust net margin of 26.14%, with gross margins impressively high at 61.88% and operating margins at 38.74%, reflecting the asset-light, high-margin nature of its exchange and data businesses. Profitability metrics are strong, with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 11.43% and a Return on Assets (ROA) of 2.26%, demonstrating efficient use of capital. The balance sheet is healthy with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, and the company generates substantial cash, evidenced by a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $4.29 billion; this strong FCF, coupled with a current ratio of 1.02, indicates ample liquidity and the capacity to fund operations, dividends, and share buybacks without reliance on excessive external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.1B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.03%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.79%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$4.3B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Exchanges Segment
Fixed Income And Data Services Segment
Mortgage Technology Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is ICE Overvalued?

Given a positive net income of $840 million in the latest quarter, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 28.0x and a forward PE of 18.2x; the significant discount of the forward multiple implies the market expects earnings growth, likely pricing in analyst EPS estimates averaging $12.50 for the coming period. Compared to sector averages, ICE's trailing PE of 28.0x and Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 7.32x are not directly comparable without provided industry averages, but the high gross and net margins suggest a premium business model that may command a valuation premium relative to less profitable financial services firms. Historically, the stock's own trailing PE has ranged significantly, with data showing figures from 19.8x in mid-2023 to 35.1x in late 2024; the current 28.0x multiple sits near the midpoint of this recent historical range, suggesting the market is pricing in a balanced outlook that is neither excessively optimistic nor pessimistic relative to its own history.

PE

28.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -66x~49x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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