ImmunityBio, Inc. Common Stock
IBRX
$8.05
+3.74%
ImmunityBio, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing next-generation immunotherapies designed to activate a patient's immune system to provide durable protection against cancer and infectious diseases. The company is a clinical-stage biotech with a distinct identity centered on its proprietary Cancer BioShield platform, built around the IL-15 superagonist ANKTIVA (nogapendekin alfa inbakicept). The current investor narrative is dominated by the company's transition from a pure R&D entity to a commercial-stage player, driven by recent regulatory milestones including the first drug approval in Asia and EU approval for ANKTIVA in bladder cancer, which are critical steps for global expansion and revenue generation, though the stock remains a high-risk, volatile biotech bet.…
IBRX
ImmunityBio, Inc. Common Stock
$8.05
Related headlines
IBRX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ImmunityBio, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $10.47 and implied upside of +30.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$10.47
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$6 - $10
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage appears limited, with only one analyst providing estimates according to the data, which implies this is a stock with limited institutional following, typical for small/mid-cap or recently commercialized biotechs, leading to potentially higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The single analyst provides a wide estimated revenue range for the forward period from $2.38 billion to $5.06 billion, with an average of $3.74 billion, reflecting enormous uncertainty and high expectations around the commercial ramp of ANKTIVA; the wide target spread signals very low consensus and high fundamental uncertainty about the company's near-term commercial execution and market penetration.
Bulls vs Bears: IBRX Investment Factors
The bull case for IBRX is powered by transformative regulatory catalysts and the initiation of a high-margin commercial journey, with analyst projections implying monumental revenue growth. The bear case is anchored in severe financial risk, a valuation demanding flawless execution, and recent technical deterioration suggesting the explosive rally may be over. Currently, the bearish evidence carries more weight due to the precarious financials and exorbitant valuation multiples that leave no room for error. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company's nascent $38M quarterly revenue can scale toward the multi-billion dollar analyst targets quickly enough to justify its EV/Sales of 65.8x before burning through its cash reserves.
Bullish
- Explosive Price Momentum & Major Catalysts: The stock has surged 198.5% over the past year, driven by concrete regulatory milestones including EU approval and first Asian approval for its lead drug ANKTIVA. These events validate the platform and open significant new markets for revenue generation.
- Transition to Commercialization with High Margins: Revenue grew 4.07% YoY to $38.29M in Q4 2025, accelerating from a near-zero base, with the 'Product' segment contributing nearly all of it. The company boasts a robust gross margin of 88.91%, indicating strong pricing power for its newly launched therapy.
- Analyst Projects Massive Revenue Upside: The single analyst covering the stock projects forward revenue averaging $3.74 billion, representing a potential 9,600%+ increase from current levels. This reflects extreme optimism for the commercial ramp of ANKTIVA, providing a long-term growth narrative.
- Strong Short-Term Liquidity Position: Despite heavy cash burn, the company maintains a current ratio of 5.10, indicating ample liquidity to cover near-term obligations. This financial flexibility is critical for funding ongoing commercialization and R&D efforts without immediate solvency risk.
Bearish
- Extreme Financial Risk & Heavy Cash Burn: The company is deeply unprofitable with a Q4 net loss of $61.94M and negative free cash flow of -$308M over the TTM. A negative debt-to-equity ratio of -1.76 and negative ROA of -34.4% highlight severe financial distress and dependence on external financing.
- Sky-High Valuation on Future Expectations: The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 16.08x and an EV/Sales of 65.83x, pricing in astronomical future growth from a $38M quarterly revenue base. This leaves the stock vulnerable to massive multiple compression if commercial execution falters.
- Recent Loss of Momentum & High Volatility: After a powerful rally, the stock has gained only 2.44% in the past month, underperforming the S&P 500 by 3.16%, signaling profit-taking and waning momentum. The stock's 52-week range of $1.95 to $12.43 illustrates its extreme volatility and speculative nature.
- Limited Analyst Coverage & High Uncertainty: With only one analyst providing estimates, there is low institutional consensus and inefficient price discovery. The analyst's revenue target range is extraordinarily wide ($2.38B to $5.06B), underscoring the fundamental uncertainty about near-term commercial success.
IBRX Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a staggering 198.50% 1-year price change. As of the latest close at $7.97, the stock is trading at approximately 64% of its 52-week range ($1.95 to $12.43), indicating it has retreated significantly from its highs but remains well above its lows, suggesting a consolidation phase after a major rally. The short-term momentum shows a stark divergence from the long-term trend; the stock gained only 2.44% over the past month, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 5.6% gain, as indicated by a relative strength of -3.16, signaling a loss of momentum and potential profit-taking after the explosive January-February run. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $12.43 and low of $1.95; a breakout above resistance would signal a resumption of the bull trend, while a breakdown below the $6-$7 support zone could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 0.073 is exceptionally low and appears anomalous for a volatile biotech, suggesting the provided data may not fully capture its true market-correlated volatility, which is likely much higher given its price history and sector.
Beta
0.07
0.07x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$2-$12
Price range past year
Annual Return
+177.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | IBRX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.8% | +4.6% |
| 3m | -6.5% | +8.3% |
| 6m | +287.0% | +12.5% |
| 1y | +177.6% | +25.0% |
| ytd | +298.5% | +8.7% |
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IBRX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing but from an extremely low base, with the most recent quarterly revenue at $38.29 million, representing a 4.07% year-over-year growth. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating top-line growth from minimal levels in early 2024, driven by the initial commercialization of its lead product, with the 'Product' segment contributing $38.27 million of the total Q4 revenue. The company remains deeply unprofitable, with a net loss of $61.94 million in Q4 2025 and a gross margin of 88.91%; while the gross margin is high and improving sequentially (from 87.12% in Q3), operating losses remain substantial due to heavy R&D ($60.81 million in Q4) and SG&A expenses, indicating the business is still in a cash-burn investment phase. The balance sheet shows significant financial risk, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -1.76 and negative free cash flow over the trailing twelve months of -$308.01 million; however, a current ratio of 5.10 indicates strong short-term liquidity, and the company has relied heavily on external financing, as seen in cash flow statements showing substantial proceeds from common stock issuance to fund operations.
Quarterly Revenue
$38285000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+4.06%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.88%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-308007000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is IBRX Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 16.08x, while the forward-looking metric, EV-to-Sales, is significantly higher at 65.83x, indicating the market is pricing in substantial future revenue growth expectations beyond the current modest sales base. Peer comparison is challenging due to missing industry average data in the provided valuation set; however, a PS ratio of 16x for a clinical-stage biotech with initial commercialization is not uncommon, though the elevated EV/Sales suggests expectations are high. Historically, the stock's own valuation has compressed dramatically as revenue has begun to materialize; the PS ratio has fallen from over 51x at the end of Q4 2025 to the current 16x, indicating the market is gradually shifting from valuing pure pipeline potential to actual commercial execution, though it remains well above the near-zero revenue multiples seen in 2023-2024.
PE
-5.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -29x~-2x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-11.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are severe. ImmunityBio is burning cash at an alarming rate, with TTM free cash flow of -$308 million against quarterly revenue of just $38 million, indicating a runway dependent on continuous equity dilution. The company remains deeply unprofitable (net margin -310%) with substantial operating losses driven by R&D spend of $60.8M in Q4 alone. Revenue, while growing, is concentrated entirely on the initial launch of ANKTIVA, creating binary dependency on its commercial success. Any slowdown in adoption would immediately threaten the company's solvency given its negative equity base.
Market & Competitive Risks center on valuation compression and commercial execution. Trading at an EV/Sales of 65.8x, the stock prices in near-perfect execution of a global launch in competitive oncology markets. The provided beta of 0.073 is anomalous and misleading; as a clinical-stage biotech, IBRX's true volatility is high, making it sensitive to sector-wide sentiment shifts away from high-risk growth stocks. Recent news highlights progress (EU approval, Asian approval), but also underscores the stock's characterization as a 'high-risk, volatile biotech bet,' indicating the market's awareness of the speculative premium.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a failure of ANKTIVA to gain meaningful market share combined with an inability to raise additional capital. This could trigger a rapid downward spiral: missed sales targets lead to analyst abandonment, multiple compression from 16x PS toward the single digits typical of failing biotechs, and a liquidity crisis. The realistic downside is severe, referencing the 52-week low of $1.95, which represents a potential -75.5% decline from the current price of $7.97. A drawdown of this magnitude is plausible given the stock's history and the high short ratio of 9.31, which signals significant skeptical positioning.
