Wynn Resorts
WYNN
$105.61
-0.97%
Wynn Resorts Ltd operates as a developer and operator of high-end destination casino resorts, primarily in the luxury gaming and hospitality segments of the Consumer Cyclical industry. The company is a globally recognized leader in the premium integrated resort market, distinguished by its iconic properties in Las Vegas and Macau, which command significant pricing power and brand loyalty. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the post-pandemic recovery trajectory, particularly the normalization of operations in Macau and the sustained strength in its U.S. properties, while also anticipating future growth from its upcoming managed resort in the United Arab Emirates slated for 2027.…
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
$105.61
Investment Opinion: Should I buy WYNN Today?
Rating & Thesis: Hold. WYNN presents a compelling but fully priced recovery story where execution risk on margins and earnings growth is high relative to the reward implied by current valuation. While analyst sentiment is unanimously bullish, the stock's technical weakness and fundamental margin pressures warrant caution.
Supporting Evidence: The investment case rests on the anticipated earnings leap, with the forward P/E of 18.82x implying strong profit growth from the trailing net margin of 5.36%. Robust TTM free cash flow of $692.22 million supports financial stability. However, these positives are counterbalanced by severe gross margin compression (down ~1,172 bps YoY), stagnant recent revenue growth of 1.48%, and a stock price that has declined -7.32% over six months despite a bullish analyst cohort.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are the continuation of gross margin erosion and a failure to hit the forward EPS estimates that justify the valuation. This Hold rating would upgrade to a Buy if gross margins stabilize above 35% and the stock holds above key support at $110, confirming the earnings recovery is on track. It would downgrade to a Sell if QoQ revenue growth turns negative or the stock breaks below its March low of $96.59. Based on the current mix of optimistic forward estimates and challenging present fundamentals, the stock appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued, pricing in significant future perfection.
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WYNN 12-Month Price Forecast
The outlook is bifurcated between a promising forward earnings story and concerning current fundamentals. The base case is most likely, expecting Wynn to grind higher on earnings delivery, but the path is fraught with margin-related execution risk. The high forward P/E offers limited margin for error. The stance would upgrade to bullish on confirmation of margin stabilization and sequential revenue acceleration. It would turn bearish on a breakdown below the $96.59 support level, which would signal a failure of the recovery thesis.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Wynn Resorts's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $137.29 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$137.29
10 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
10
covering this stock
Price Range
$84 - $137
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 9 analysts, indicating solid institutional research interest. While the exact consensus recommendation (e.g., Buy/Hold/Sell) and average target price are not provided in the data, the institutional ratings show a unanimously bullish stance, with recent actions from firms like Morgan Stanley, UBS, Mizuho, Stifel, and Wells Fargo all maintaining 'Overweight', 'Buy', or 'Outperform' ratings. This pattern suggests a strong bullish consensus among covering analysts. The range of analyst estimates provides insight into their expectations; the average EPS estimate for the coming period is $7.01, with a low estimate of $5.93 and a high of $8.93. Similarly, the average revenue estimate is $8.04 billion, ranging from $7.96 billion to $8.12 billion. The high EPS target of $8.93 likely assumes a successful execution of the recovery in Macau, robust U.S. performance, and smooth progress on the UAE project. The low EPS target of $5.93 likely factors in potential macroeconomic headwinds, competitive pressures, or slower-than-expected recovery in key markets. The relatively tight range between the high and low revenue estimates signals stronger conviction on the top-line outlook, while the wider EPS range reflects greater uncertainty around the pace of margin recovery and profitability.
Bulls vs Bears: WYNN Investment Factors
The evidence presents a balanced but tense picture. The bull case is strongly supported by forward-looking analyst optimism, robust cash flow, and a clear recovery narrative, particularly for Macau. The bear case is grounded in deteriorating current profitability (gross margin compression) and a valuation that already prices in a near-perfect recovery. Currently, the bull side has stronger evidence due to the unanimous analyst consensus and the compelling forward P/E discount, but the margin compression is a significant red flag. The single most important tension is whether the company can achieve the projected ~$7.01 EPS to justify its current forward multiple, or if margin pressures will persist and derail the earnings recovery narrative.
Bullish
- Strong Forward Earnings Growth: The forward P/E of 18.82x is nearly half the trailing P/E of 38.12x, indicating analysts expect a significant earnings recovery. The average EPS estimate for the coming period is $7.01, which would represent a substantial increase from the Q4 2025 EPS of $0.97.
- Robust Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generates strong internal cash flow, with TTM free cash flow of $692.22 million. This provides financial flexibility for growth initiatives, debt management, and potential shareholder returns without relying on external financing.
- Unanimous Analyst Bullish Consensus: All 9 covering analysts maintain 'Overweight', 'Buy', or 'Outperform' ratings, signaling strong institutional conviction in the recovery thesis. This consensus is anchored by a clear growth narrative centered on Macau's normalization and the upcoming UAE project.
- Solid Liquidity and Operating Profitability: Wynn maintains a healthy current ratio of 1.63 and an operating margin of 15.51% in Q4 2025. Despite gross margin pressure, the company's core resort operations remain profitable, providing a stable earnings base.
Bearish
- Significant Gross Margin Compression: Gross margin has compressed sharply from 43.68% in Q4 2024 to 31.96% in Q4 2025, a decline of over 1,100 basis points. This indicates rising operational costs or a less profitable revenue mix, directly pressuring profitability.
- Premium Valuation with High Earnings Sensitivity: The trailing P/E of 38.12x is at the higher end of its recent historical range, leaving little room for multiple expansion. This premium valuation makes the stock highly sensitive to any earnings disappointment relative to the forward $7.01 EPS estimate.
- Weak Recent Price Momentum and Trend: The stock is down -7.32% over the last six months and -4.50% over three months, significantly underperforming the SPY. Trading at $109.19, it is well off its 52-week high of $134.72, confirming a loss of bullish momentum.
- Negative Shareholder Equity Distorts Metrics: A debt-to-equity ratio of -44.62 and negative ROE of -118.82% stem from negative shareholder equity, an accounting result of accumulated deficits. This complicates traditional financial health assessments and highlights past financial strain.
WYNN Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained downtrend from its recent highs, trading at $109.19, which is approximately 81% of its 52-week range between $73.80 and $134.72. Despite a strong 1-year price change of +46.03%, the stock has declined -7.32% over the last six months, indicating a significant loss of momentum after a powerful recovery phase. This positioning near the upper-mid range suggests the stock is consolidating after a major rally, with the potential for either a resumption of the uptrend or a deeper pullback depending on fundamental catalysts. Recent momentum shows a sharp divergence, with the stock gaining +7.45% over the past month but declining -4.50% over the last three months. This 1-month rebound, which slightly outperformed the SPY's +7.36% gain, suggests a potential near-term bottoming attempt or oversold bounce, conflicting with the more pronounced 3-month and 6-month downtrends. The positive relative strength of +0.09 over one month indicates the stock is beginning to match the market's recent strength, but the deeply negative relative strength of -7.17 over three months highlights its significant underperformance during that period. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $73.80 and major resistance at the 52-week high of $134.72. A breakout above the recent downtrend channel and the $110-$115 zone would signal a reversal, while a breakdown below the March 2026 lows near $96.59 would confirm the bearish trend's continuation. The stock's beta of 1.034 indicates its volatility is essentially in line with the broader market, suggesting its price movements are driven more by company-specific factors than systemic risk, which is important for investors sizing their position relative to portfolio risk.
Beta
1.03
1.03x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-27.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$79-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+33.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WYNN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.8% | +8.5% |
| 3m | -7.0% | +2.8% |
| 6m | -15.9% | +4.6% |
| 1y | +33.5% | +32.3% |
| ytd | -13.8% | +3.9% |
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WYNN Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.87 billion representing a year-over-year increase of 1.48%. However, examining the sequential quarterly trend from Q1 to Q4 2025 shows revenue fluctuating between $1.70 billion and $1.87 billion, indicating a period of stabilization rather than robust acceleration. The Casino segment, at $1.14 billion in the latest period, remains the dominant revenue driver, though the lack of segment growth rates limits a detailed analysis of underlying business line momentum. The company is profitable, reporting net income of $100.03 million for Q4 2025, translating to a net margin of 5.36%. Gross margin for the quarter was 31.96%, which has compressed from 42.26% in Q1 2025 and 43.68% in Q4 2024, indicating potential pressure from rising costs or a revenue mix shift. Operating margin for Q4 2025 was 15.51%, showing the company maintains solid operational profitability despite the gross margin compression, supported by an EBITDA of $459.9 million. The balance sheet shows a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 1.63, though the negative debt-to-equity ratio of -44.62 is an accounting anomaly stemming from negative shareholder equity, a common feature for companies with accumulated deficits. Free cash flow generation is robust, with TTM free cash flow of $692.22 million, providing ample internal funding for growth initiatives and capital returns. The Return on Equity (ROE) is deeply negative at -118.82%, a direct result of the negative equity base, which distorts this metric's usefulness for Wynn at present.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.01%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.31%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$692220000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WYNN Overvalued?
Given the positive net income of $100.03 million in the latest quarter, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 38.12x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 18.82x. This substantial gap implies the market is pricing in a strong recovery in earnings over the next twelve months, with forward estimates reflecting nearly a doubling of profitability relative to the trailing period. Compared to sector averages, Wynn's valuation presents a mixed picture. Its trailing PE of 38.12x is likely at a premium to many traditional consumer cyclical peers, though specific industry average data is not provided for a precise calculation. The Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 1.75 and EV-to-Sales of 2.87 are more moderate multiples that may be compared against asset-heavy resort operators. The premium, if it exists, would need to be justified by Wynn's superior brand positioning, high-end asset quality, and recovery potential in Macau. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 38.12x sits well above its own historical range observed in recent quarters, which has seen values as low as 3.49x in Q4 2023 and as high as 255.80x in Q1 2023 during periods of minimal earnings. Being near the higher end of its recent historical band suggests the market is currently pricing in a relatively optimistic earnings normalization scenario, leaving less room for multiple expansion and increasing sensitivity to any earnings disappointments.
PE
38.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -82x~256x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Wynn faces clear profitability risks, most notably the severe compression of gross margin from 43.68% to 31.96% year-over-year. This ~1,172 basis point decline, if sustained, threatens the earnings recovery priced into the forward P/E of 18.82x. Furthermore, the company's negative shareholder equity, while an accounting feature, indicates a history of accumulated losses and complicates leverage analysis. Revenue growth has also stagnated, with Q4 2025 YoY growth of just 1.48%, suggesting the post-pandemic recovery phase may be maturing faster than expected.
Market & Competitive Risks: The primary market risk is valuation compression. The stock's trailing P/E of 38.12x is elevated and leaves it vulnerable to de-rating if growth stalls. Its beta of 1.034 means it moves with the market, exposing it to broader cyclical downturns that could hurt discretionary spending on luxury travel and gaming. Competitive intensity in both Macau and Las Vegas remains high, and any regulatory changes in these key jurisdictions could impact operations. Recent news of cooling inflation may benefit rate-sensitive stocks, but Wynn's recent underperformance (-7.17 RS over 3 months) suggests company-specific concerns are currently outweighing macro benefits.
Worst-Case Scenario: The most damaging scenario involves a failure to arrest gross margin decline combined with a slowdown in Macau's recovery, leading to a significant earnings miss versus the $7.01 average estimate. This could trigger multiple compression from the current forward P/E, analyst downgrades, and a loss of investor confidence in the recovery story. A realistic downside could see the stock re-test its recent March 2026 low of $96.59 and potentially trend toward its 52-week low of $73.80. From the current price of $109.19, this represents a potential loss of -11.5% to the recent low and -32.4% to the 52-week low.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Profitability Risk: Gross margin has collapsed from 43.68% to 31.96% YoY, directly threatening earnings. 2) Execution Risk: The stock's premium forward P/E hinges on hitting EPS of ~$7.01; any shortfall could cause a sharp de-rating. 3) Geopolitical & Regulatory Risk: Operations in Macau are subject to Chinese economic policy and local gaming regulations. 4) Market Risk: As a consumer cyclical stock (beta 1.034), it is vulnerable to economic downturns that reduce discretionary travel and gaming spend.
The 12-month forecast is scenario-dependent. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $115 and $125, driven by meeting the average EPS estimate of $7.01. The bull case (30% probability) could see a run toward the 52-week high of $134.72 or beyond if earnings exceed $8.93. The bear case (20% probability) risks a fall to the $73.80 - $96.59 range if the recovery stalls and margins worsen. The most likely outcome is the base case, assuming a gradual, bumpy recovery rather than a dramatic surge or collapse.
WYNN's valuation sends mixed signals. The trailing P/E of 38.12x appears high, suggesting overvaluation based on current earnings. However, the forward P/E of 18.82x implies the market expects a sharp earnings recovery, which, if achieved, could mean the stock is fairly valued or even undervalued. The Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.75 is moderate. Overall, the stock is not cheap; it is priced for near-perfect execution. It is fairly valued relative to optimistic forward estimates but overvalued if those estimates are missed.
WYNN is a speculative buy for investors who have high conviction in the Macau recovery and the company's ability to improve profitability. The unanimous analyst bullishness and forward P/E of 18.82x suggest significant upside if EPS meets the $7.01 average estimate. However, it carries substantial risk, evidenced by severe gross margin compression and a -7.32% six-month price decline. It is a good buy only for those willing to accept the volatility and execution risk associated with a turnaround story, not for conservative investors.
WYNN is more suitable for a medium-term investment horizon of 1-3 years, aligning with the expected timeline for Macau's full recovery and the development of the UAE project. It is less ideal for short-term trading due to its volatility and sensitivity to quarterly earnings, and not a classic long-term 'buy and hold' due to the cyclical nature of its business. Investors should be prepared to monitor quarterly margins and Macau trends closely. A minimum holding period of 12-18 months is suggested to allow the core investment thesis to play out.
