Talen Energy
TLN
$312.76
-4.83%
Talen Energy Corporation is an independent power producer and energy infrastructure company that owns and operates a diversified fleet of generation assets, including 2.2 GW of nuclear power and a dispatchable fossil fleet, primarily selling electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale U.S. power markets. The company is a significant player in the PJM Interconnection market, where its largest segment operates, positioning it as a critical, asset-heavy provider in a region undergoing a complex energy transition. The current investor narrative is dominated by the stock's extreme volatility and a fundamental debate over its path to consistent profitability, as recent quarterly results show a dramatic swing from significant profit to a deep net loss, highlighting the inherent earnings sensitivity of merchant power generators to commodity prices and operational factors.…
TLN
Talen Energy
$312.76
TLN 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Talen Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $406.59 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$406.59
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$250 - $407
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for TLN is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is likely a smaller or more specialized name with less institutional research focus. The consensus sentiment among the few covering institutions appears uniformly bullish, as recent ratings from major firms like JP Morgan, Barclays, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley are all 'Overweight' or 'Buy', with no downgrades or sell ratings visible in the recent institutional ratings data. The average revenue estimate for the upcoming period is $5.93 billion, with a wide range from a low of $5.28 billion to a high of $6.72 billion, reflecting significant uncertainty about future performance; the average EPS estimate is $47.28, but the enormous range from $40.60 to $55.52 further underscores the high degree of variability and lack of clear consensus on the company's earnings power. The wide target spread signals high uncertainty, which is typical for a volatile commodity-sensitive business, and the limited coverage itself implies the stock may be prone to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility due to lower institutional ownership and trading liquidity.
TLN Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its recent highs, having declined 25.3% over the past six months and 17.43% over the last three months, significantly underperforming the broader market as indicated by its -13.43 relative strength over 3 months. With a current price of $327.58, the stock is trading approximately 72.6% of the distance from its 52-week low of $162.31 to its high of $451.28, indicating it has retreated substantially from its peak but remains well off its absolute lows, suggesting a state of correction rather than a complete collapse. Recent momentum remains negative, with the stock down 4.05% over the past month, continuing the bearish trajectory established over the medium term; this persistent selling pressure, coupled with a high beta of 1.78, confirms the stock's characteristic as a highly volatile instrument that amplifies market moves. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $162.31, while resistance sits near the recent trading range highs around $390-$420; a sustained breakdown below the $300 psychological level could accelerate a test of the 52-week low, whereas a recovery above $390 would signal a potential trend reversal, though the high beta necessitates careful risk sizing given its 78% greater volatility than the market.
Beta
1.78
1.78x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$177-$451
Price range past year
Annual Return
+53.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TLN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -5.7% | +0.4% |
| 3m | -15.7% | -2.0% |
| 6m | -24.2% | +4.1% |
| 1y | +53.8% | +23.9% |
| ytd | -21.2% | -0.3% |
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TLN Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is highly volatile on a quarterly basis, with Q4 2025 revenue of $670 million representing a 37.3% year-over-year increase from the prior-year quarter's $488 million, but this follows a sequential decline from Q3's $770 million; the revenue segment data shows the top line is heavily influenced by non-operational items like a $300 million unrealized gain/loss on commodity contracts, obscuring the underlying operational trajectory of its core electricity sales. Profitability is erratic and currently deeply negative, with Q4 2025 reporting a net loss of $363 million (EPS of -$7.95) and a net margin of -54.2%, a stark reversal from the profitable Q3 which saw net income of $207 million and a net margin of 26.9%; the gross margin of 92.1% in Q4 is anomalously high due to the aforementioned mark-to-market gains, while the operating margin was -43.9%, indicating severe operational inefficiencies or cost issues during the period. The balance sheet shows significant financial risk with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.23, indicating a highly leveraged capital structure, though trailing twelve-month free cash flow is a positive $519 million, providing some capacity to service debt; however, the negative Return on Equity of -20.0% and negative Return on Assets of -0.4% reflect the company's struggle to generate shareholder value from its asset base given the recent quarterly loss.
Quarterly Revenue
$670000000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.37%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.92%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$519000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TLN Overvalued?
Given the deeply negative net income of -$363 million for the latest quarter, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio, as earnings-based multiples are not meaningful. The trailing PS ratio is 6.78x, while the forward-looking valuation can be inferred from the EV/Sales multiple of 8.04x, suggesting the market expects some top-line stability or growth. Compared to sector averages, data is not available in the provided dataset for a direct industry PS or EV/Sales comparison, preventing a quantified premium/discount assessment; however, the absolute level of the PS ratio must be evaluated in the context of the company's erratic profitability and high leverage. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly, from a low near 2.05x in late 2022 to a high of 29.18x in mid-2025; the current PS of 6.78x sits well below the peak of the last two years, suggesting the market has significantly de-rated the stock from its prior optimistic levels, potentially pricing in a more cautious outlook on growth and margin sustainability.
PE
-78.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -17x~46x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
55.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple

