Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
SMCI
$0.00
+3.15%
Super Micro Computer Inc. is a technology company specializing in high-performance server solutions for AI datacenters, cloud computing, and data centers. It is a key player in the computer hardware industry, known for its modular and open-standard architecture that provides turn-key solutions.…
SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$0.00
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy SMCI Today?
Based on a synthesis of the data, the objective assessment is a Hold for existing investors and a High-Risk Speculative Buy only for aggressive, risk-tolerant investors. The stock's valuation is compelling (Forward P/E of 7.6), and the business operates in a high-growth sector, but these positives are currently overshadowed by severe governance risks and margin pressure. Investors should await clarity on the legal situation before establishing or adding to a position.
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SMCI 12-Month Price Forecast
The investment case is balanced on a knife's edge. The fundamental growth story is powerful, but it is currently invalidated by non-fundamental, existential risks. The base case of volatile range-trading is most likely until the legal cloud clears.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.
Average Target
$0.00
6 analysts
Implied Upside
—
vs. current price
Analyst Count
6
covering this stock
Price Range
$0 - $0
Analyst target range
Analyst consensus data for target price and ratings distribution is not available in the provided inputs. The available data shows six analysts providing estimates, with an average revenue forecast of $62.09 billion and an average EPS forecast of $3.22 for the period. Recent institutional rating actions from 2024 show a mix of Neutral, Equal Weight, and Hold ratings, but no current consensus or target price is provided for analysis as of 2026-04-01.
Bulls vs Bears: SMCI Investment Factors
SMCI presents a high-risk, high-potential opportunity. Its fundamentals are bifurcated: explosive revenue growth is countered by collapsing margins and severe governance issues. The stock is technically oversold and cheap on forward earnings, but faces substantial near-term headwinds.
Bullish
- Massive Revenue Growth: Q2 2026 revenue grew 123.4% YoY, showing strong demand.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Forward P/E of 7.6 is low relative to growth expectations.
- Strong Liquidity Position: Current ratio of 5.25 indicates excellent short-term financial health.
- Deeply Oversold Technicals: Price down 66% from 52-week high, near 52-week low of $19.48.
Bearish
- Severe Profit Margin Compression: Gross margin collapsed to 6.3% from 11.8% YoY.
- Serious Governance & Legal Risks: Recent news highlights misconduct allegations and co-founder arrest.
- Extreme Price Volatility & Downtrend: Stock down 56.6% in 6 months, underperforming SPY by 53.8%.
- Negative Free Cash Flow: Latest quarter FCF was -$45.1M due to heavy working capital needs.
SMCI Technical Analysis
The stock has experienced a severe and sustained downtrend over the past six months, with the price declining 56.6% from its level around $52.5 in early October 2025 to $22.77 as of March 31, 2026. Short-term performance has been extremely weak, with the stock down 29.7% over the past month and 22.2% over the past three months, significantly underperforming the broader market as indicated by negative relative strength figures. The current price of $22.77 sits near the lower end of its 52-week range of $19.48 to $62.36, representing a drawdown of approximately 66.2% from its high, indicating the stock is in a deeply oversold position from a price perspective.
Beta
1.63
1.63x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-66.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$19-$62
Price range past year
Annual Return
-33.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SMCI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -24.3% | -4.3% |
| 3m | -25.0% | -4.0% |
| 6m | -55.3% | -2.0% |
| 1y | -33.8% | +22.2% |
| ytd | -25.0% | -3.8% |
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SMCI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue for the latest quarter (Q2 2026) was $12.68 billion, showing strong year-over-year growth of 123.4%. However, profitability metrics have compressed significantly, with the gross margin for the quarter at 6.3%, down sharply from 11.8% in the year-ago quarter, and the net income margin at 3.2%. The company maintains a strong current ratio of 5.25, indicating excellent short-term liquidity, and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76. Operational efficiency shows a Return on Equity (ROE) of 16.6% and a Return on Assets (ROA) of 3.4%, though free cash flow for the latest quarter was negative at -$45.1 million, reflecting heavy investment in working capital.
Quarterly Revenue
$12.7B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.23%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.06%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$440087000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SMCI Overvalued?
Given the company is profitable, the trailing P/E ratio of 27.7 is the primary valuation metric. This is based on a current price of $22.77 and a trailing twelve-month EPS of approximately $0.82 (implied from the P/E and price). The forward P/E is significantly lower at 7.6, based on analyst EPS estimates. The stock also trades at a Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 1.32 and an EV/Sales of 0.53, which appear low relative to its growth profile. Peer comparison data is not available in the provided inputs.
PE
27.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 4x~47x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
21.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
The primary risk is a severe deterioration in corporate governance and legal standing, as highlighted by recent news of co-founder arrest and misconduct allegations. This threatens key partnerships (e.g., with Nvidia) and customer confidence. Financially, the dramatic compression in gross margin (from 11.8% to 6.3% YoY) raises questions about pricing power and cost management in a competitive AI hardware market. The company also consumed cash in the latest quarter (-$45.1M FCF), indicating potential strain from rapid growth. Market risks are elevated, with the stock showing high beta (1.487) and extreme volatility, down 56.6% in six months amidst broader geopolitical and inflation concerns that punish growth stocks.
FAQ
The paramount risk is the ongoing legal and governance crisis, which could damage critical business relationships. Financial risks include the severe compression of gross margin to 6.3% and negative free cash flow. Market risks are high volatility (beta of 1.487), a steep downtrend, and significant short interest (short ratio 3.61).
Analysts forecast an average EPS of $3.22 and revenue of $62.1B. Our 12-month outlook has a base case target range of $25-$35, assuming legal issues persist but growth continues. The bull case ($40-$62) requires a legal resolution and margin recovery, while the bear case ($19-$22) involves a worsening crisis. The neutral stance reflects balanced probabilities.
SMCI appears significantly undervalued based on forward earnings growth, trading at a Forward P/E of just 7.6 against analyst EPS estimates of $3.22. However, it looks fairly valued or even overvalued on a trailing basis (P/E of 27.7) given the recent margin collapse. The valuation disconnect highlights the market's discount for extreme uncertainty.
SMCI is a high-risk, speculative buy at current levels. Its forward P/E of 7.6 is very low for a company with 123% revenue growth, indicating the market is pricing in severe risks. However, these risks—including serious legal allegations and collapsing profit margins—are real and substantial. It may be suitable only for aggressive investors who can tolerate high volatility.
SMCI is not suitable for short-term investment due to extreme volatility and event-driven price action. It could be a candidate for long-term investment only if the legal and margin issues are resolved, allowing the underlying AI growth story to prevail. Currently, it is a speculative holding for investors with a multi-year horizon and high risk tolerance.