Natera
NTRA
$203.00
-3.71%
Natera, Inc. is a diagnostic and research company operating in the healthcare sector, specifically within medical diagnostics and research, leveraging proprietary molecular and bioinformatics technology. The company has established itself as a leader in cell-free DNA testing, with a distinct competitive identity built on its key product offerings including the Panorama non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT), Horizon carrier screening, and the Signatera molecular residual disease (MRD) test for oncology monitoring. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the company's transition to profitability, as evidenced by its first quarterly net income reported in Q4 2025, and the accelerating adoption of its high-growth oncology and transplant rejection tests, which is driving a significant revenue growth story amidst a broader market debate on the sustainability of its margin expansion and path to sustained GAAP profitability.…
NTRA
Natera
$203.00
Related headlines
NTRA 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Natera's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $263.90 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$263.90
6 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
6
covering this stock
Price Range
$162 - $264
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Natera is limited, with only 6 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is still a stock with specialized institutional interest rather than broad coverage. The consensus leans bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings from firms like Morgan Stanley (Overweight), Baird (Outperform), and JP Morgan (Overweight), though Wells Fargo maintains an Equal Weight rating. The average revenue estimate for the next period is approximately $5.01 billion, with a tight EPS estimate range between $4.18 and $4.42, suggesting analysts have high conviction in near-term financial performance. The wide target price range, implied by the variance in EPS estimates, signals ongoing debate about the company's ultimate growth runway and margin potential, with the high end of estimates likely embedding expectations for continued market share gains in oncology, while the low end may reflect concerns about competition or reimbursement pressures.
NTRA Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced recovery phase from a sharp correction, having posted a strong 1-year price change of 45.24%, yet it is currently trading 9.12% lower over the past 3 months. Based on the 52-week high of $256.36 and low of $125.38, the recent close of $207.98 positions the stock at approximately 64% of its 52-week range, indicating it has retreated significantly from its highs and is now in a middle-ground area that may reflect a balance between growth optimism and recent profit-taking. Recent momentum shows a modest 1-month gain of 0.45%, which diverges from the strong 1-year uptrend and the negative 3-month performance, suggesting the stock is attempting to stabilize and find a base after the significant pullback from its January 2026 peak near $254. The stock exhibits high volatility with a beta of 1.68, meaning it is 68% more volatile than the broader market, which is critical for risk assessment given its 28.2% maximum drawdown. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate resistance at the recent high near $256 and support at the 52-week low of $125.38; a decisive breakout above the $256 resistance would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a breakdown below the $200 level could open a path toward testing deeper support.
Beta
1.68
1.68x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-28.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$130-$256
Price range past year
Annual Return
+33.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NTRA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.0% | +0.4% |
| 3m | -13.4% | -2.0% |
| 6m | +19.9% | +4.1% |
| 1y | +33.6% | +23.9% |
| ytd | -11.3% | -0.3% |
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NTRA Fundamental Analysis
Natera's revenue trajectory is exceptionally strong, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $665.5 million, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 39.8%. This growth has accelerated from prior quarters, as evidenced by sequential quarterly revenue increases from $501.8M in Q1 to $665.5M in Q4, driven primarily by its core Product segment, which accounted for $661.2 million of the total. The company achieved a landmark shift to profitability in Q4 2025, reporting net income of $47.3 million and a net margin of 7.1%, a dramatic improvement from a net loss of $87.5 million in Q3. Gross margins remain robust at 67.1% for the quarter, consistent with the full-year gross margin of 64.8%, indicating strong pricing power and cost management in its test offerings. The balance sheet and cash flow position is healthy, with a strong current ratio of 3.39, a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.125, and positive free cash flow of $96.6 million on a trailing twelve-month basis; this substantial liquidity, with over $1 billion in cash, provides ample runway to fund growth initiatives without reliance on dilutive external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$665500000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.39%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.67%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$96613000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NTRA Overvalued?
Given the company's recent quarterly net income of $47.3 million but a trailing twelve-month EPS that remains slightly negative at -$0.0066, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio, as the company is at an inflection point towards sustained profitability. Natera trades at a trailing PS ratio of 13.58x and an EV/Sales of 12.41x. Compared to industry averages, which for high-growth diagnostic companies often range in the mid-to-high single digits for PS, Natera's multiple represents a significant premium, justified by its superior revenue growth rate nearing 40% and its expanding margin profile. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated widely, from a low near 18x in late 2021 to a high over 70x during peak growth phases in 2021; the current PS of 13.58x is at the lower end of its own multi-year historical range, suggesting the market may be pricing in a more mature growth profile or reflecting the recent price correction, potentially offering a relative value opportunity if growth sustains.
PE
-150.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -124x~166x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-115.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple