National Oilwell Varco
NOV
$21.17
+3.93%
NOV Inc. is a global provider of equipment and components for the oil and gas industry, designing, manufacturing, and selling rig equipment, downhole tools, drill pipe, and well casing. The company operates as a major integrated supplier across two segments—energy products and services and energy equipment—serving a diverse customer base from major integrated oil companies to independent drilling contractors. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate energy sector volatility, underscored by a recent 20% dividend increase signaling management's confidence in sustained cash flow generation, while debates persist around the sustainability of its recovery amid fluctuating commodity prices and capital expenditure cycles.…
NOV
National Oilwell Varco
$21.17
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NOV 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on National Oilwell Varco's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $27.52 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$27.52
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $28
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is not a widely followed large-cap name, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The average revenue estimate for the period is $9.57 billion, with a range from $9.10 billion to $9.94 billion, but no consensus price target or Buy/Hold/Sell distribution is provided in the data, making it impossible to calculate implied upside or gauge overall sentiment. The available institutional ratings show a mixed but generally cautious picture, with recent actions including a reiteration of 'Sell' by Goldman Sachs and an upgrade to 'Equal Weight' from 'Underweight' by Barclays, suggesting some analysts see reduced downside risk but not enough conviction for a bullish call, resulting in a wide spread of opinions that reflects the underlying uncertainty in the oilfield services outlook.
NOV Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 57.78% gain over the past year, and is currently trading at $20.37, which places it near the top of its 52-week range of $11.65 to $20.93, specifically at approximately 97% of that range. This positioning near multi-year highs suggests strong momentum but also raises concerns about potential overextension and limited near-term upside before encountering significant resistance. Recent momentum shows a 7.10% gain over the past month, which, while positive, has decelerated from the 6.09% gain over the past three months and notably underperformed the S&P 500's 5.6% monthly return, indicating a relative strength weakness (RSI data not provided) that may signal a consolidation phase or profit-taking after the powerful yearly rally. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $20.93 and support at the 52-week low of $11.65; a decisive breakout above $20.93 could signal a continuation of the bull trend, while a failure here may lead to a pullback toward the $18.00 area, which acted as support in early February. The stock's beta of 0.92 indicates it is slightly less volatile than the broader market, which, combined with a high short ratio of 5.37, suggests a lower systemic risk profile but potential for sharp moves if short covering is triggered.
Beta
0.92
0.92x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-16.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$12-$21
Price range past year
Annual Return
+64.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NOV Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +10.8% | +4.0% |
| 3m | +11.0% | +8.2% |
| 6m | +39.1% | +11.5% |
| 1y | +64.9% | +24.3% |
| ytd | +29.0% | +8.3% |
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NOV Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $2.277 billion representing a 1.34% year-over-year decline, and the sequential trend from Q3 2025's $2.176 billion shows only a 4.6% increase, indicating a business still grappling with top-line stability rather than robust expansion. The company's profitability is highly volatile, as evidenced by a net income swing from a $78 million loss in Q4 2025 (net margin of -3.43%) to a $42 million profit in Q3 2025, with gross margin compressing to 20.29% in the latest quarter from 21.36% a year ago, highlighting ongoing margin pressure within the cyclical oilfield services sector. Balance sheet and cash flow health appear solid, with a strong current ratio of 2.42, a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37, and robust trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $876 million, which provides ample liquidity to fund operations, the increased dividend, and share repurchases without relying on external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.3B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.01%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.20%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$876000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NOV Overvalued?
Given the company's inconsistent profitability, with a trailing net income of $0.0249 per share (positive but negligible), the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio, as earnings are not yet a stable or meaningful driver of value. The stock trades at a PS ratio of 0.66, which represents a significant discount to the industry average for Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, though a precise industry average PS is not provided in the data; this discount likely reflects market skepticism about growth sustainability and margin recovery compared to more favorably positioned peers. Historically, the current PS ratio of 0.66 is near the lower end of its own range observed in recent quarters, which spanned from approximately 2.13 to 4.87 over the past two years, suggesting the stock is being valued conservatively relative to its own history, potentially pricing in a cyclical downturn or offering a value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize.
PE
40.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -55x~49x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
