National Fuel Gas Co.
NFG
$93.96
-1.08%
National Fuel Gas Co. is a diversified energy company involved in natural gas production, gathering, transportation, distribution, and marketing. It operates as an integrated player in the Appalachian region, leveraging its upstream, midstream, and utility segments to provide a stable energy supply.…
NFG
National Fuel Gas Co.
$93.96
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NFG Today?
Based on a synthesis of the provided data, the objective assessment for NFG is a Hold. The stock's strong fundamental recovery, attractive forward P/E of 11.3, and market-beating performance are significant positives. However, these are balanced by the stock trading near its 52-week high, mixed analyst sentiment, and sector-specific volatility. The current price level suggests most of the near-term positive news may be priced in, warranting a cautious stance for new capital allocation.
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NFG 12-Month Price Forecast
The data paints a picture of a company in strong operational form with compelling valuation, but the technical setup and lack of clear catalyst at current prices suggest a neutral near-term outlook. The base case of consolidation is most probable.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on National Fuel Gas Co.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $122.15 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$122.15
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$75 - $122
Analyst target range
No sufficient analyst coverage available. The provided data includes only two analyst estimates for future EPS and revenue, but does not contain consensus target prices or a ratings distribution summary. Recent institutional rating actions show mixed sentiment, with Scotiabank downgrading to 'Sector Perform' in October 2025 and B of A Securities upgrading to 'Buy' in July 2025.
Bulls vs Bears: NFG Investment Factors
NFG presents a compelling case with a strong fundamental recovery, attractive valuation, and significant market outperformance. However, the stock trades at elevated technical levels with limited analyst consensus, introducing near-term uncertainty. The integrated business model provides stability, but the stock's proximity to its 52-week high suggests potential for consolidation.
Bullish
- Strong Earnings Recovery: Q1 2026 net income margin surged to 27.9% from 8.2% YoY.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Forward P/E of 11.3 and PEG of 0.03 suggest undervaluation.
- Robust Relative Strength: Outperformed SPY by 22% over 3 months, showing market resilience.
- Solid Financial Health: Manageable D/E of 0.92 and strong ROE of 16.8%.
Bearish
- Trading Near 52-Week High: Price of $93.96 is close to resistance at the 52-week high of $97.06.
- Limited Analyst Coverage: Only 2 analysts provide estimates, indicating lower institutional interest.
- Mixed Analyst Sentiment: Recent rating actions include both a downgrade and an upgrade.
- Sector Volatility Risk: Energy sector is sensitive to commodity price swings and regulation.
NFG Technical Analysis
The stock has demonstrated a strong uptrend over the observed six-month period, rising from a low near $78 in late October 2025 to a recent high above $96 in March 2026. This represents a significant recovery and a positive long-term trajectory. In the short term, the stock has gained 3.22% over the past month and 17.36% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the broader market (SPY) which declined -5.25% and -4.63% over the same periods, respectively. The current price of $93.96 is near the top of its 52-week range of $69.93 to $97.06, indicating the stock is trading at elevated levels and may be testing resistance.
Beta
0.56
0.56x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-16.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$70-$97
Price range past year
Annual Return
+18.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NFG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +3.2% | -5.3% |
| 3m | +17.4% | -4.6% |
| 6m | +2.5% | -2.8% |
| 1y | +18.7% | +15.9% |
| ytd | +14.5% | -4.6% |
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NFG Fundamental Analysis
Revenue for the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) was $651.5 million, showing strong year-over-year growth of 18.57% compared to the same quarter last year. Profitability has improved markedly, with the net income margin for the quarter at 27.88%, a substantial increase from the 8.19% margin in Q1 2025. The company's financial health shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.92, which is manageable, and it generated positive operating cash flow of $274.9 million in the latest quarter. Operational efficiency is solid, with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 16.76% and a Return on Assets (ROA) of 7.39%, indicating effective use of shareholder capital and company assets.
Quarterly Revenue
$651507000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.18%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.46%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$204835001.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NFG Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is 16.12, while the forward P/E is 11.29, suggesting the market expects earnings growth. The PEG ratio is exceptionally low at 0.028, indicating the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth prospects, though this figure should be interpreted with caution. Peer comparison data (industry averages) is not available in the provided inputs for a direct valuation context.
PE
16.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -23x~31x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
NFG's primary risks stem from its sector exposure and financial metrics. As an integrated energy company, its performance is inherently tied to volatile natural gas prices and broader energy market cycles, which can impact revenue and margins despite recent strong growth. The company's low current ratio of 0.44 raises questions about short-term liquidity and its ability to cover immediate obligations, though this is partially mitigated by positive operating cash flow. Furthermore, the stock's technical position near its 52-week high, combined with a high short ratio of 5.61, indicates the potential for increased selling pressure or a price correction if the bullish momentum falters. The lack of broad analyst coverage (only 2 analysts) adds an element of informational risk, making it harder to gauge consensus expectations and increasing reliance on company-specific disclosures.
FAQ
Key risks include sector volatility tied to natural gas prices, the stock's technical position near its 52-week high which could lead to a pullback, and a relatively weak current ratio of 0.44 indicating potential liquidity constraints. Additionally, the high short ratio of 5.61 signals significant bearish sentiment among some traders, which could amplify selling pressure.
The 12-month outlook is mixed. The base case (50% probability) sees consolidation within a range of $85 to $97, aligning with current valuation support and resistance. The bull case (30%) targets $97 to $105 on continued strong execution, while the bear case (20%) could see a retreat to $70 to $85 if sector headwinds or a growth slowdown materialize.
Based on provided metrics, NFG appears reasonably valued to slightly undervalued. The forward P/E ratio of 11.29 is low, and the exceptionally low PEG ratio of 0.028 suggests the market is not fully pricing in growth expectations. However, the price-to-sales ratio of 3.67 and the stock trading near its 52-week high provide a counterbalance, indicating the market has recognized recent improvements.
NFG shows strong fundamentals, including a 27.9% net income margin and a forward P/E of 11.3, suggesting it is not overvalued. However, with the stock price near its 52-week high of $97.06, the immediate upside may be limited. A 'Hold' rating is more appropriate until a more attractive entry point emerges or a new bullish catalyst is confirmed.
NFG is more suitable for a long-term investment horizon. Its integrated business model, dividend (2.25% yield), and solid ROE of 16.8% support a buy-and-hold strategy. The current technical overbought conditions and sector cyclicality make it less ideal for short-term trading, as it may experience volatility without a clear near-term catalyst for further breakout.