Neurocrine Biosciences
NBIX
$128.41
-2.31%
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing treatments for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders, operating within the specialty drug manufacturing industry. The company has established itself as a leader in movement disorders with its flagship product, Ingrezza, and has built a diversified portfolio addressing conditions like tardive dyskinesia, Huntington's disease chorea, and congenital adrenal hyperplasia. The current investor narrative is dominated by a strategic pivot towards high-growth rare diseases, highlighted by the recent acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics, juxtaposed against near-term stock pressure following what the market perceived as disappointing 2026 revenue guidance for its core product.…
NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences
$128.41
Related headlines
NBIX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Neurocrine Biosciences's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $166.93 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$166.93
6 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
6
covering this stock
Price Range
$103 - $167
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Neurocrine appears active, with 6 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, and recent institutional ratings showing a series of reiterated bullish calls from major firms like JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and RBC Capital in February and March 2026. The consensus sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with recent actions including 'Overweight', 'Buy', and 'Outperform' ratings, though one 'Market Perform' rating from BMO Capital indicates some caution. Specific consensus price target data is not provided in the dataset, preventing calculation of implied upside or downside.
The analyst target range and specific price targets are not available in the provided data. However, the pattern of recent ratings—where multiple firms reaffirmed bullish stances immediately following a significant stock drop on February 12, 2026—suggests the low end of any target range likely incorporates the guidance disappointment, while the high end would assume successful pipeline execution, including contributions from the recent Soleno acquisition and sustained core product growth. The fact that analysts maintained their ratings during a sell-off signals a belief that the long-term thesis remains intact and that the current price may represent a buying opportunity, though the absence of specific targets limits the precision of this signal.
Bulls vs Bears: NBIX Investment Factors
The evidence currently tilts slightly bearish in the near term due to the negative technical momentum and the guidance-induced sell-off, which has not been fully recovered. However, the bullish fundamental case—anchored by strong growth, profitability, a healthy balance sheet, and a discounted forward valuation—remains compelling for long-term investors. The single most important tension in the investment debate is the resolution of the 2026 growth trajectory for Ingrezza versus the market's expectation for rapid earnings expansion priced into the forward P/E of 15x. If execution meets or exceeds the lowered guidance, the stock could re-rate significantly higher; a further miss would validate bearish concerns and pressure the valuation multiple.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth & Profitability: Q4 2025 revenue grew 28.33% YoY to $805.5M, with a robust net margin of 19.08%. The company generates substantial free cash flow ($748.7M TTM), funding growth without dilutive financing.
- Compelling Forward Valuation: The forward P/E of 15.07x implies a 96% earnings growth expectation from the trailing P/E of 29.49x. A PEG ratio of 0.71 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate.
- Rock-Solid Balance Sheet: The company has minimal leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 and ample liquidity with a current ratio of 3.39. This financial strength supports the recent Soleno acquisition and pipeline investments.
- Analyst Conviction Post-Selloff: Multiple major firms (JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, RBC) reiterated bullish ratings after the February 2026 guidance-driven drop, viewing the ~10% sell-off as a long-term buying opportunity.
Bearish
- Disappointing 2026 Guidance: The stock fell sharply from ~$137 to ~$123 on February 12, 2026, due to market-perceived disappointing revenue guidance for its flagship product, Ingrezza, raising near-term growth concerns.
- Technical Downtrend & Weak Momentum: The stock is down 5.66% over six months and 5.08% over three months, trading near 56% of its 52-week range ($88.35-$160.18). Recent price action shows a breakdown from the $137 support level.
- Elevated Short Interest: A short ratio of 3.61 indicates significant bearish sentiment and adds potential near-term selling pressure, though it also creates fuel for a short squeeze on positive news.
- Revenue Concentration Risk: The Product segment generated $798.3M of Q4's $805.5M revenue, indicating high dependence on a few commercialized drugs, primarily Ingrezza, making growth vulnerable to any slowdown.
NBIX Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its recent highs, trading at a current price of $128.89, which represents a 5.66% decline over the past six months and a 5.08% drop over the last three months. This price places it at approximately 56% of its 52-week range ($88.35 to $160.18), indicating it is much closer to its yearly low than its high, which suggests the stock is in a value-seeking zone but also reflects significant negative momentum and potential fundamental concerns. Despite a strong 1-year gain of 42.07%, the recent momentum has sharply reversed, with the stock down 0.50% over the past month, diverging significantly from the longer-term uptrend and signaling a potential trend reversal or deep correction following a negative catalyst.
Recent short-term momentum is weak and negative, with the stock declining 0.50% over the past month and 5.08% over the past three months, which starkly contrasts with the SPY's performance of +0.46% and -2.1% over the same periods, respectively. This divergence indicates significant stock-specific weakness, likely driven by the disappointing guidance issued in mid-February 2026, which caused a sharp sell-off from the $137 range to near $123. The stock's beta of 0.35 suggests it is far less volatile than the broader market, but the recent price action shows it has experienced idiosyncratic, high-impact downside volatility.
Key technical support is firmly established at the 52-week low of $88.35, while immediate resistance lies at the recent pre-guidance trading levels around $137-141 and the 52-week high of $160.18. A breakdown below the recent low of $123.10 from February 2026 would signal a continuation of the downtrend and could test lower support levels. The stock's low beta of 0.35 implies it typically exhibits 65% less volatility than the SPY, which, combined with a short ratio of 3.61, indicates a elevated level of short interest that could fuel a sharp rebound on any positive news but also adds to near-term selling pressure.
Beta
0.35
0.35x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-24.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$99-$160
Price range past year
Annual Return
+28.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NBIX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.8% | +4.6% |
| 3m | -3.0% | +1.4% |
| 6m | -8.3% | +5.6% |
| 1y | +28.3% | +33.5% |
| ytd | -8.7% | +2.9% |
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NBIX Fundamental Analysis
Neurocrine's revenue trajectory remains robustly positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $805.5 million representing a 28.33% year-over-year growth. This growth is primarily driven by its Product segment, which contributed $798.3 million in the quarter, showcasing the strong commercial execution of its core therapies. However, the multi-quarter trend shows some sequential deceleration from Q3's $794.9 million, and recent conservative guidance for 2026 has raised questions about the sustainability of the near-term growth rate, placing greater emphasis on pipeline catalysts and the recent Soleno acquisition for future expansion.
The company is solidly profitable, reporting net income of $153.7 million for Q4 2025, which translates to a net margin of 19.08%. Gross margins are exceptionally high at 97.82%, characteristic of a biopharma company with marketed products. Profitability has shown quarterly volatility, with net income declining from $209.5 million in Q3 2025, reflecting increased operating expenses or other income fluctuations; the operating margin for Q4 was 21.64%. The trajectory indicates a profitable enterprise, but margins are subject to quarter-to-quarter variability based on R&D investments and commercial spending.
The balance sheet is healthy, with a strong current ratio of 3.39 and a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.128, indicating minimal financial leverage and ample liquidity. The company generated substantial free cash flow of $748.7 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, providing significant internal funding for its growth initiatives and the recent acquisition. Return on equity of 14.71% demonstrates efficient use of shareholder capital, and the robust cash position supports both ongoing operations and strategic business development without reliance on dilutive external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$805500000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.28%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.97%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$748700000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NBIX Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. Neurocrine trades at a trailing PE of 29.49x and a forward PE of 15.07x based on estimated earnings. The significant gap between the trailing and forward multiples implies the market expects substantial earnings growth in the coming year, effectively pricing in a forward earnings increase of roughly 96% if the current price holds.
Compared to industry averages (data not available in the provided set), a direct sector comparison cannot be quantified. However, a trailing PE of 29.5x for a profitable commercial-stage biopharma with 28% revenue growth could be considered reasonable, especially when contextualized by the much lower forward multiple which suggests growth is already being discounted. The premium or discount relative to peers would depend heavily on growth rates, pipeline maturity, and margin profiles of comparable companies.
Historically, the stock's own valuation provides critical context: its current trailing PE of 29.49x is above its recent historical average seen in the provided data, which has fluctuated significantly from negative values during unprofitable periods to a high of 348.95x in Q1 2025 during a low-earnings quarter. The current multiple sits well below extreme highs but above the more normalized range of the low-20s seen in late 2023 and 2024, suggesting the market is pricing in a recovery and growth phase but not at peak optimism, especially after the recent guidance-driven sell-off.
PE
29.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -277x~349x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
20.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Neurocrine's primary financial risk is revenue concentration, with the Product segment contributing over 99% of Q4 2025 sales, creating vulnerability if Ingrezza growth stalls. While profitability is strong (19.1% net margin), quarterly earnings are volatile, as seen in the 27% sequential decline in Q4 net income. The company's valuation relies on sustained high growth, with a forward P/E of 15.07x pricing in a near-doubling of earnings; any deceleration could trigger multiple compression.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 29.5x, which is above its more normalized historical range in the low-20s, indicating it carries a growth premium that is susceptible to compression if sentiment sours. Its low beta of 0.35 suggests it is less correlated to broad market swings, but the recent 10.6% single-day drop shows it faces high-impact, stock-specific event risk, such as guidance misses. The strategic pivot into rare diseases via acquisition introduces integration and pipeline execution risks that could pressure the stock if milestones are delayed.
Worst-Case Scenario: The most damaging scenario would involve a further downgrade to Ingrezza's growth outlook, coupled with pipeline setbacks for the Soleno acquisition or other clinical assets. This could lead to a derating of the forward multiple and a test of major technical support. A realistic downside could see the stock retreat to its 52-week low of $88.35, representing a potential loss of approximately 31% from the current price of $128.89. The recent max drawdown of -24.65% provides a benchmark for the stock's recent vulnerability to negative news.