LKQ Corporation
LKQ
$0.00
+1.00%
LKQ Corporation is a global distributor of vehicle replacement parts, components, and systems used in vehicle repair and maintenance, as well as specialty aftermarket products and accessories. It operates as a leading consolidator in the fragmented auto parts aftermarket industry, with a significant presence across North America and Europe, its largest revenue segment. The current investor narrative is dominated by a significant stock price pullback and concerns over long-term industry disruption from autonomous vehicles, yet this has attracted notable institutional buying from funds betting on a recovery and the company's resilient business model amid a challenging environment.…
LKQ
LKQ Corporation
$0.00
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LKQ 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on LKQ Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.
Average Target
$0.00
1 analysts
Implied Upside
—
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$0 - $0
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for LKQ appears limited, with data indicating only one analyst providing estimates, resulting in insufficient data to form a meaningful consensus on price targets or recommendation distribution. The single analyst estimates an average EPS of $3.82 for the coming period on revenue of $14.84 billion. The lack of broad coverage typically indicates this is a mid-cap stock with limited institutional research focus, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The available institutional ratings from firms like JP Morgan and Barrington Research show a pattern of maintained 'Overweight' or 'Outperform' ratings throughout 2025 and early 2026, suggesting that the covering analysts remain bullish on the long-term story despite the stock's poor performance. The recent news of significant hedge fund buying during the pullback aligns with this maintained bullish stance from the few analysts who do cover the name.
LKQ Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced and sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -32.98%, significantly underperforming the broader market. As of the latest close at $27.15, the stock is trading at approximately 10% of its 52-week range ($23.98 to $40.94), positioning it near multi-year lows, which suggests either a deep value opportunity or a continued fundamental deterioration that the market is pricing in. Recent momentum remains deeply negative, with a 1-month decline of -13.51% and a 3-month drop of -20.38%, indicating the bearish trend is accelerating rather than stabilizing. This severe underperformance is highlighted by a relative strength of -60.86 versus the S&P 500 over one year, showing a complete lack of buying interest. Key technical levels are clear, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $23.98 and resistance far above near the 52-week high of $40.94. A breakdown below $23.98 would signal a new leg down, while any recovery would face a steep climb. The stock's beta of 0.872 indicates it has been less volatile than the market during this decline, which is unusual for a stock in a steep downtrend and may suggest it is being treated as a lower-risk, value-oriented holding.
Beta
0.87
0.87x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$24-$41
Price range past year
Annual Return
-33.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | LKQ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -13.5% | +4.4% |
| 3m | -20.4% | +8.5% |
| 6m | -8.2% | +9.7% |
| 1y | -33.0% | +28.8% |
| ytd | -9.6% | +9.3% |
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LKQ Fundamental Analysis
LKQ's revenue trajectory shows signs of deceleration and contraction, with Q4 2025 revenue of $3.31 billion representing a year-over-year decline of -1.34%. The multi-quarter trend reveals a sequential decline from $3.64 billion in Q2 2025, indicating top-line pressure. Segment data, though incomplete, shows Europe as the largest contributor at $1.56 billion for an unspecified period, suggesting geographic concentration is a key growth driver or drag. The company remains profitable but with compressed margins; Q4 2025 net income was $66 million, yielding a net margin of 1.99%, a significant drop from the 5.14% net margin in Q3 2025. The gross margin of 35.08% in Q4 is also down from the trailing twelve-month gross margin of 38.03%, indicating pricing or mix challenges. The balance sheet and cash flow position is a relative strength, with a solid current ratio of 1.67 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.77. Most notably, the company generated robust free cash flow of $847 million over the trailing twelve months, providing ample liquidity to fund operations, pay its 4.01% dividend yield, and potentially buy back shares, as evidenced by the $40 million in repurchases in Q4 2025.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.3B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.01%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.35%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$847000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is LKQ Overvalued?
Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 12.73x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 8.17x, implying the market expects a substantial earnings recovery. Compared to sector averages, LKQ trades at a deep discount; its trailing P/E of 12.73x is well below typical auto parts industry averages often in the mid-teens, and its Price/Sales ratio of 0.56x and EV/Sales of 0.85x suggest the market is assigning a very low multiple to its revenue base. This discount is likely due to the observed growth deceleration and margin compression, raising questions about the sustainability of its cash flows. Historically, LKQ's valuation has compressed dramatically; its current trailing P/E of 12.73x is near the bottom of its own historical range, having traded above 29x as recently as Q4 2025 and above 18x in late 2023. This severe de-rating signals the market is pricing in pessimistic expectations about future growth and profitability, viewing the stock as a classic value trap unless fundamentals stabilize.
PE
12.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 8x~29x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
