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JPMorgan Chase

JPM

$300.73

+0.98%

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm operating across three core segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management. It is a dominant market leader, boasting the top global ranking in investment banking fees, a massive $4.9 trillion balance sheet, and a network of over 5,000 U.S. branches. The current investor narrative centers on the bank's ability to navigate a complex macroeconomic environment characterized by persistent inflation and delayed rate cuts, with attention focused on its net interest income trajectory, credit quality, and its ability to maintain its industry-leading profitability and market share amidst these headwinds.…

Should I buy JPM
Bobby Quantitative Model
May 18, 2026

JPM

JPMorgan Chase

$300.73

+0.98%
May 18, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm operating across three core segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management. It is a dominant market leader, boasting the top global ranking in investment banking fees, a massive $4.9 trillion balance sheet, and a network of over 5,000 U.S. branches. The current investor narrative centers on the bank's ability to navigate a complex macroeconomic environment characterized by persistent inflation and delayed rate cuts, with attention focused on its net interest income trajectory, credit quality, and its ability to maintain its industry-leading profitability and market share amidst these headwinds.
Should I buy JPM

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JPM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $300.73
Average Target $300.73
High Target $345.8395
Low Target $255.62050000000002

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on JPMorgan Chase's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $390.95 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$390.95

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$241 - $391

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage for JPMorgan is extensive among major institutions, with recent ratings from firms like Piper Sandler, Barclays, and Wells Fargo maintaining 'Overweight' or 'Outperform' stances, while others like Morgan Stanley and Truist Securities have 'Equal-Weight' or 'Hold' ratings, indicating a generally bullish but cautious consensus. The average analyst revenue estimate for the coming period is approximately $215.04 billion, with a tight range between $214.15 billion and $215.94 billion, reflecting high conviction in near-term revenue stability. The implied upside or downside to consensus price targets cannot be calculated precisely as the average target price is not provided in the data, but the narrow revenue estimate range and sustained institutional 'Overweight' ratings suggest analysts see limited downside risk and potential for recovery based on the bank's dominant market position and strong profitability.

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JPM Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 8.5% year-to-date and 1.9% over the last six months, which starkly contrasts with the S&P 500's gains of 8.4% and 10.01% over the same periods, respectively. Currently trading at $297.81, the price sits just 16% above its 52-week low of $256 and 12% below its 52-week high of $337.25, positioning it in the lower half of its annual range and suggesting it is approaching a potential value zone after a significant correction. Recent momentum remains weak, with the stock down 2.65% over the past month and 1.57% over the past three months, indicating the short-term selling pressure aligns with and reinforces the longer-term bearish trend rather than signaling a divergence or reversal. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $256, while resistance looms near the 52-week high of $337.25; a decisive break below support could trigger further downside, whereas a sustained move above resistance would signal a major trend reversal. With a beta of 1.023, the stock exhibits market-like volatility, but its significant underperformance, evidenced by a -16.9% relative strength YTD, highlights its unique, company-specific or sector-specific headwinds rather than broad market moves.

Beta

1.02

1.02x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-15.5%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$256-$337

Price range past year

Annual Return

+12.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodJPM ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.1%+4.0%
3m-2.1%+8.2%
6m-0.8%+11.5%
1y+12.4%+24.3%
ytd-7.6%+8.3%

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JPM Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has decelerated, with Q4 2025 revenue of $69.61 billion representing a modest 3.88% year-over-year increase, and a sequential decline from Q3 2025's $71.90 billion, indicating potential pressure on top-line expansion. The Consumer & Community Banking segment contributed $19.40 billion in the latest period, closely followed by the Commercial & Investment Bank at $19.38 billion, showing balanced but slowing contributions from its core divisions. The company remains highly profitable, posting Q4 2025 net income of $13.03 billion and a robust net margin of 20.39%, though margins have compressed from peaks seen in 2024, such as the Q2 2024 net margin of 26.75%, reflecting a normalization from exceptionally strong prior periods. Gross margin for Q4 2025 was a healthy 59.91%, and the trailing twelve-month free cash flow is an enormous $100.87 billion, demonstrating the firm's exceptional cash-generating ability. Financial health is strong, with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 15.74% and a Return on Assets (ROA) of 1.27%, though the debt-to-equity ratio of 2.60 indicates a leveraged balance sheet typical for a major bank; the massive free cash flow provides ample internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and growth initiatives, significantly mitigating balance sheet risk.

Quarterly Revenue

$69.6B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.03%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.59%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$100.9B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Segment Reconciling Items
Asset and Wealth Management Segment
Commercial And Investment Bank
Consumer & Community Banking
Segment Reporting, Reconciling Item, Corporate Nonsegment

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Valuation Analysis: Is JPM Overvalued?

Given the consistently positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 15.75x and a forward PE of 12.65x; the discount of the forward multiple implies the market expects earnings growth, likely anticipating a recovery from recent pressures. Compared to sector averages, JPM's valuation presents a mixed picture: its trailing PE of 15.75x is below the typical market premium for a leader, while its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 3.21x and Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 2.48x need to be assessed against industry benchmarks to determine if they represent a discount or premium, though its high profitability metrics often justify a valuation premium. Historically, the current trailing PE of 15.75x is below the stock's own recent historical range, which has seen peaks above 17x in late 2025, suggesting the market has de-rated the stock due to near-term concerns, potentially creating a value opportunity if the company's fundamental strengths remain intact.

PE

15.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 7x~17x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

18.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple

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