J. B. Hunt
JBHT
$225.22
+0.26%
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc is a leading North American surface transportation and logistics company, operating across intermodal delivery, dedicated trucking services, for-hire truckload, final-mile delivery, and asset-light truck brokerage. The company is a dominant player in the integrated freight and logistics industry, distinguished by its significant intermodal segment which leverages Class I rail carriers for cost-effective long-haul transport. The current investor narrative centers on the company's resilience and strategic positioning amid a challenging freight environment, with recent financial performance and price action reflecting a debate between cyclical recovery prospects and near-term margin pressures from softer demand and competitive pricing.…
JBHT
J. B. Hunt
$225.22
JBHT 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on J. B. Hunt's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $292.79 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$292.79
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$180 - $293
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for JBHT is limited, with only 2 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, indicating insufficient breadth for a robust consensus view on price targets. This limited coverage is typical for a mid-cap industrial firm and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The available data shows estimated revenue for the coming period has a wide range from $15.07 billion to $15.86 billion, and EPS estimates range from $11.11 to $11.87, reflecting significant uncertainty in near-term forecasts. Recent institutional ratings from firms like Evercore ISI (Outperform), B of A Securities (Buy), and UBS (Neutral) show a generally positive but mixed sentiment, with no clear directional changes in the latest actions, suggesting analysts are in a wait-and-see mode regarding the freight cycle's inflection point.
Bulls vs Bears: JBHT Investment Factors
The investment debate for JBHT centers on the tension between its strong technical momentum and premium valuation versus the clear fundamental pressures of stagnant revenue and contracting margins. Currently, the bear case has stronger near-term evidence, as the stock's 40%+ annual gain appears to have priced in a robust recovery that is not yet visible in the quarterly financials, with revenue down 1.58% and gross margins halving. The single most important factor that will resolve the thesis is the timing and magnitude of a freight market inflection; if demand and pricing rebound, the premium multiple could be justified by accelerating earnings, but if the soft environment persists, significant multiple compression is likely.
Bullish
- Strong Technical Uptrend: The stock has gained 40.67% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 22.2% gain. It is trading at 91% of its 52-week high of $236, demonstrating persistent investor optimism and momentum.
- Robust Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $947.6 million in free cash flow on a TTM basis, providing ample liquidity for shareholder returns and investments. This strong cash flow underpins a healthy balance sheet with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53.
- Superior Return on Equity: JBHT's ROE of 16.78% is a strong indicator of efficient capital allocation and profitability. This metric supports the valuation premium and suggests the company can generate solid returns even in a challenging freight environment.
- Analyst Sentiment Leans Positive: Recent institutional ratings from firms like Evercore ISI (Outperform) and B of A Securities (Buy) indicate a constructive view on the company's strategic positioning. The forward P/E of 24.44x, lower than the trailing 31.73x, implies analyst expectations for earnings recovery.
Bearish
- Stagnant Revenue & Margin Pressure: Q4 2025 revenue declined 1.58% YoY to $3.10B, and gross margin compressed sharply to 10.99% from 17.54% in Q2 2025. This reflects a soft freight market, competitive pricing, and significant profitability headwinds.
- Premium Valuation at Cyclical Peak: The trailing P/E of 31.73x is above the stock's own historical average and typical industrial transportation multiples. This premium valuation leaves little room for error and is vulnerable to compression if the earnings recovery narrative falters.
- Limited Analyst Coverage & High Uncertainty: Only 2 analysts provide estimates, leading to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility. Their EPS estimates have a wide range ($11.11 to $11.87), reflecting significant uncertainty about near-term fundamentals.
- Recent Price Pullback & High Volatility: The stock has declined 6.91% over the past month, signaling potential profit-taking or weakening momentum after a strong rally. With a beta of 1.22, it is 22% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside risk.
JBHT Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 40.67% one-year price increase, significantly outperforming the broader market's 22.2% gain. As of the latest close of $214.91, the price is trading at approximately 91% of its 52-week high of $236.0, indicating strong momentum and positioning near the upper bound of its annual range, which suggests investor optimism but also raises concerns about potential overextension. The stock has experienced a recent pullback, with a 1-month decline of 6.91%, which contrasts sharply with its positive 3-month return of 9.21%. This short-term weakness, occurring against a backdrop of a 13.21% relative strength advantage over the S&P 500 in the last three months, signals a potential consolidation or profit-taking phase following the strong multi-month rally rather than a fundamental trend reversal. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $122.79, while immediate resistance is at the recent high of $236.0; a decisive breakout above this level would confirm the bullish trend's resumption, whereas a breakdown below the recent March low near $200 would signal deeper correction. With a beta of 1.22, the stock is approximately 22% more volatile than the market, a factor that investors must account for in risk management, especially given the stock's maximum drawdown of -23.69% over the observed period.
Beta
1.22
1.22x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$123-$236
Price range past year
Annual Return
+59.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | JBHT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.3% | +0.4% |
| 3m | +8.9% | -2.0% |
| 6m | +64.3% | +4.1% |
| 1y | +59.0% | +23.9% |
| ytd | +14.5% | -0.3% |
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JBHT Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been stagnant to slightly negative in the near term, with Q4 2025 revenue of $3.10 billion representing a 1.58% year-over-year decline. The quarterly trend shows revenue has hovered between $2.92 billion and $3.10 billion over the last four quarters, indicating a plateau as the company navigates a softer freight market. Profitability remains intact but under pressure, with Q4 2025 net income of $181.1 million and a net margin of 5.85%, which is down from the 6.64% net margin implied by the trailing twelve-month key metrics. Gross margin for the quarter was 10.99%, a compression from the 17.54% reported in Q2 2025, reflecting the challenging pricing environment and mix shifts. The balance sheet and cash flow generation are strengths, with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53 and robust free cash flow of $947.6 million on a TTM basis. The company's return on equity of 16.78% is healthy, and the current ratio of 0.83, while below 1.0, is typical for asset-intensive logistics firms; the strong free cash flow provides ample liquidity for capital expenditures, shareholder returns, and debt servicing without reliance on external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.01%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.10%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$947585000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is JBHT Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 31.73x, while the forward P/E is lower at 24.44x, indicating the market expects earnings growth to resume, which aligns with analyst EPS estimates averaging $11.46 for the coming period. Compared to sector averages, the stock trades at a premium; for instance, its forward P/E of 24.4x is above typical industrial transportation multiples, a premium that may be justified by JBHT's market leadership, diversified model, and superior return metrics like its 16.78% ROE. Historically, the stock's own valuation has fluctuated; its current trailing P/E of 31.73x is above its recent historical average seen in the ratios data (e.g., 25.63x at the end of Q4 2025), suggesting the market is currently pricing in a recovery narrative and may be at the higher end of its recent valuation band, leaving less room for multiple expansion.
PE
31.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 15x~40x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: The primary financial risk is margin compression, with gross margin falling from 17.54% in Q2 2025 to 10.99% in Q4 2025, a severe contraction that pressures the bottom line despite a manageable debt-to-equity of 0.53. Revenue has plateaued between $2.92B and $3.10B over the last four quarters, indicating dependence on a cyclical recovery to reignite growth. While free cash flow of $947.6M (TTM) is robust, the current ratio of 0.83 indicates potential liquidity strain in covering short-term obligations, typical but still a risk for asset-intensive firms.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock trades at a significant valuation premium, with a forward P/E of 24.4x above typical industrial transportation multiples, creating risk of compression if growth disappoints. The stock's beta of 1.22 indicates it is 22% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside during sector-wide selloffs. Competitive and macro risks are high, as the company's intermodal and trucking segments are highly sensitive to industrial production and consumer spending, with recent results already showing the impact of softer demand.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a prolonged freight recession coupled with failed pricing power, leading to further margin erosion and an earnings miss. This could trigger a derating from the current premium P/E towards the sector average, compounded by the stock's high beta. A realistic downside could see the stock re-test its 52-week low of $122.79, representing a potential loss of approximately -43% from the current price of ~$215. The observed maximum drawdown of -23.69% provides a recent benchmark for volatility, but a full cyclical downturn could exceed this.