Hyatt Hotels Corporation
H
$155.69
+2.64%
Hyatt Hotels Corporation is a global hospitality company operating a portfolio of approximately 35 upscale and luxury hotel brands, including vacation, lifestyle, wellness, and extended-stay properties. The company is a distinct player in the travel lodging industry, primarily functioning as a manager and franchisor, with 98% of its rooms under this asset-light model, which provides a more stable earnings profile compared to owned real estate. The current investor narrative is focused on the company's post-pandemic recovery trajectory, the outperformance of its luxury and vacation segments as highlighted in recent earnings, and its strategic shift towards a fee-based business model through acquisitions like Apple Leisure Group, which is driving debate around growth sustainability and margin expansion.…
H
Hyatt Hotels Corporation
$155.69
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H 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hyatt Hotels Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $202.40 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$202.40
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$125 - $202
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Hyatt is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, which is low for a company of its market cap and suggests it may be under-followed, potentially leading to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The average revenue estimate for the coming period is $9.49 billion, with a range from $8.89 billion to $10.20 billion, and the average EPS estimate is $9.58, ranging from $8.79 to $10.50; the wide range in both revenue and EPS targets indicates significant uncertainty and divergence in views on the company's near-term performance. Recent institutional ratings from ten firms show a predominantly bullish stance, with actions like 'Overweight', 'Buy', and 'Outperform' from major banks including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and JP Morgan, though one firm (Evercore ISI) recently downgraded to 'In Line' from 'Outperform', which may be a cautionary signal amidst the overall positive sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: H Investment Factors
The evidence currently tilts bearish due to acute profitability pressures, high leverage, and severe technical deterioration outweighing the positive long-term strategic shift to an asset-light model. The most critical tension in the investment debate is whether the collapse in Q4 gross margin to 11.2% is a temporary integration issue related to acquisitions like Apple Leisure Group or a sign of deeper, structural margin erosion. The resolution of this margin question will determine if the stock's historically low PS ratio of 2.14 represents a value trap or a compelling entry point.
Bullish
- Asset-Light Model Drives Stability: 98% of Hyatt's rooms are under management or franchise agreements, providing a stable fee-based revenue stream with lower capital intensity. This model contributed $1.206 billion in the latest quarter's Management and Franchising segment, showcasing its core earnings power.
- Strong Analyst Sentiment & Upside: Institutional ratings are predominantly bullish (Overweight/Buy/Outperform) from major banks. The average analyst EPS estimate of $9.58 implies significant forward profitability, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 31.2, which is high but reflects growth expectations.
- Valuation at Historical Low: The current Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 2.14 is near the bottom of its historical range (7.4 to 19.8), suggesting a deep value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize. This compression may have overshot, pricing in excessive pessimism.
- Luxury Segment Outperformance: Recent news highlights luxury hotel segments leading Q4 growth, indicating resilience in high-margin areas. This aligns with the company's strategic focus on upscale and vacation brands, which are key drivers in the post-pandemic recovery.
Bearish
- Severe Profitability Pressure: Q4 2025 showed a net loss of $20 million (-1.1% net margin) and a gross margin collapse to 11.2% from 39.2% in Q3. This stark volatility and negative ROE of -1.6% raise serious questions about earnings sustainability and cost integration.
- High Financial Leverage: A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.44 indicates significant leverage on the balance sheet. With modest TTM free cash flow of $109 million, the company has limited internal cash generation to aggressively pay down debt, increasing financial risk.
- Technical Breakdown & Underperformance: The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, down 12.3% over the past month and 13.3% over three months, severely underperforming the S&P 500. Trading at 79% of its 52-week range suggests a loss of momentum and potential for further decline toward the $102.43 low.
- Premium Valuation vs. Weak Earnings: Despite recent losses, the stock carries premium multiples with an EV/EBITDA of 26.84 and EV/Sales of 5.08. This valuation is difficult to justify given the negative trailing P/E of -294.4 and compressed margins, creating risk of multiple compression.
H Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 12.3% over the past month and 13.3% over the past three months, which contrasts sharply with its positive 15.0% gain over the past year. With a current price of $143.47, the stock is trading at approximately 79% of its 52-week range (between $102.43 and $180.53), indicating it has retreated significantly from its highs and is now in the lower-middle portion of its annual band, suggesting a loss of momentum and potential oversold conditions. Recent momentum is decisively negative, with the 1-month decline of 12.3% and 3-month decline of 13.3% both starkly underperforming the S&P 500, which fell 4.28% and 4.0% over the same periods, respectively; this severe underperformance signals a breakdown in the longer-term uptrend, likely driven by broader market concerns or company-specific disappointments. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $102.43, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $180.53; a sustained break below the recent March low near $139.30 could accelerate selling toward the $102 support, whereas a recovery above the $170 area would be needed to signal trend reversal. The stock's beta of 1.28 indicates it is 28% more volatile than the broader market, which has amplified its recent downside move and is a critical consideration for risk management.
Beta
1.28
1.28x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$102-$181
Price range past year
Annual Return
+30.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | H Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.4% | +0.4% |
| 3m | -7.4% | -2.0% |
| 6m | +9.1% | +4.1% |
| 1y | +30.7% | +23.9% |
| ytd | -6.0% | -0.3% |
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H Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been volatile but showed a significant year-over-year increase of 136.3% in the most recent quarter (Q4 2025), reaching $1.798 billion; however, this surge is partly due to the inclusion of recent acquisitions and a tough comparison, as sequential trends from the prior three quarters ($0.832B, $1.808B, $0.883B) reveal lumpy performance, with the core 'Management and Franchising' segment generating $1.206 billion in the latest period, indicating the asset-light model is the primary growth driver. Profitability is under pressure, with the company reporting a net loss of $20 million in Q4 2025, translating to a net margin of -1.1%, and a gross margin of 11.2%, which is compressed compared to higher levels seen in prior quarters (e.g., 39.2% in Q3 2025); the trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $109 million and an operating margin of 7.8% suggest the underlying business can generate cash, but recent quarterly losses highlight ongoing integration costs or operational challenges. The balance sheet shows a high degree of financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.44, and while the current ratio is an extremely high 58.0, this is likely distorted by short-term items; the return on equity is negative at -1.6%, and the modest free cash flow yield relative to the market cap suggests the company has limited internal cash generation to aggressively pay down debt, indicating a reliance on operational improvement to de-lever.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.8B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.36%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.11%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$109000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is H Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income and EPS of -$0.21 for Q4 2025, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 2.14, while the forward PS, based on analyst revenue estimates of $9.49 billion, implies a lower multiple, indicating the market expects revenue growth to continue. Compared to industry averages, specific sector multiples are not provided in the data, but the stock's EV/Sales of 5.08 and EV/EBITDA of 26.84 suggest a premium valuation relative to many asset-light lodging peers, which may be justified by its high-growth luxury portfolio and asset-light transition but is challenged by recent profitability issues. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated significantly, from a low near 7.4 in mid-2025 to a high over 19.8 in late 2024; the current PS of 2.14 is near the very bottom of this historical range, which could signal a deep value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize, or it may reflect a market pricing in sustained deterioration in growth and margins.
PE
-294.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -1115x~147x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
26.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are elevated. Hyatt's profitability is highly volatile, with Q4 2025 swinging to a net loss of $20 million and gross margin compressing sharply to 11.2% from over 39% the prior quarter. This earnings instability is compounded by a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.44, indicating reliance on operational improvement to de-lever, as its TTM free cash flow of $109 million provides limited debt repayment capacity. Revenue concentration in the cyclical travel lodging sector and lumpy quarterly performance ($0.83B to $1.81B over recent quarters) further amplify earnings risk.
Market & Competitive Risks stem from its premium valuation amidst weak fundamentals. Trading at an EV/EBITDA of 26.84 and a forward P/E of 31.2, the stock is priced for robust growth that recent profitability fails to support, creating significant valuation compression risk. Its beta of 1.28 means it is 28% more volatile than the market, which has amplified its recent 12.3% monthly decline. Competitive pressures in the luxury segment and potential macroeconomic softening in travel demand pose external threats to its recovery narrative and high multiples.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a failure to stabilize margins, leading to sustained quarterly losses, a credit rating downgrade that increases financing costs, and a broader travel downturn. This could trigger a re-rate to distressed valuation levels, driving the stock toward its 52-week low of $102.43. From the current price of $143.47, this scenario implies a realistic downside of approximately -29%. A break below recent technical support near $139 could accelerate selling toward this target.