Capital One
COF
$187.17
0Capital One Financial is a diversified financial services holding company primarily engaged in credit card lending, auto loans, and commercial lending, operating within the Financial - Credit Services industry. The company is a major player in the U.S. credit card market, distinct for its data-driven marketing and direct banking model, which has historically allowed it to target specific customer segments effectively. The current investor narrative is dominated by the integration of its 2025 acquisition of Discover, which promises to expand its payments network, alongside concerns over credit quality, regulatory pressures on card issuers, and its recent underperformance relative to earnings expectations.…
COF
Capital One
$187.17
Related headlines
COF 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Capital One's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $243.32 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$243.32
4 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
4
covering this stock
Price Range
$150 - $243
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Capital One appears limited in the provided dataset, with only 4 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, but no explicit buy/hold/sell ratings or price targets are listed in the analyst data object. The estimated EPS range for the next period is $37.76 to $40.29, with an average of $39.17, while estimated revenue averages $77.02 billion. The absence of a consensus price target and recommendation in the data suggests that while the company is covered, the detailed institutional ratings and targets may not be fully captured; the provided institutional ratings from early 2026 show a series of 'Buy' or 'Overweight' reiterations from major firms like Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Wells Fargo, indicating underlying analyst support. Without a specific average target price, the implied upside cannot be calculated, but the pattern of reiterated bullish ratings amidst the stock's steep decline suggests analysts see a disconnect between price and long-term value, though a wide target spread or recent downgrades would signal high uncertainty—neither of which is evident in the limited data provided.
COF Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 5.23% over the past year, a stark underperformance compared to the S&P 500's 25.19% gain, resulting in a relative strength of -30.42. Currently trading at $187.17, the price sits just 7.0% above its 52-week low of $174.98 and 27.9% below its 52-week high of $259.64, positioning it in the lower quartile of its annual range, which suggests a deep value opportunity but also reflects significant bearish sentiment and fundamental concerns. Recent momentum remains weak, with the stock down 7.79% over the past month and 9.74% over the past three months, both periods showing severe underperformance against the broader market (SPY up 5.6% and 8.42%, respectively). This persistent negative momentum, diverging sharply from the market's strength, signals ongoing selling pressure and a lack of near-term catalysts for recovery. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $174.98, while resistance lies at the recent highs near the 52-week peak of $259.64. A breakdown below $175 would likely trigger further technical selling, while a sustained move above the downtrend line is needed to signal a reversal. With a beta of 1.05, the stock exhibits market-like volatility, but its recent price action, including a maximum drawdown of -31.73%, indicates it has borne significant idiosyncratic risk.
Beta
1.05
1.05x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-31.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$175-$260
Price range past year
Annual Return
-5.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | COF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -9.3% | +4.0% |
| 3m | -9.5% | +8.2% |
| 6m | -7.5% | +11.5% |
| 1y | -5.1% | +24.3% |
| ytd | -24.5% | +8.3% |
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COF Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been volatile but showed a significant spike in Q4 2025, with revenue of $19.719 billion representing a 42.8% year-over-year increase; however, this surge is largely attributable to the inclusion of Discover's results post-acquisition, masking underlying organic trends as earlier quarters in 2025 showed more modest growth. Profitability is inconsistent, with Q4 2025 net income of $2.133 billion and a net margin of 10.82%, but this followed a disastrous Q2 2025 net loss of -$4.277 billion, highlighting earnings volatility tied to credit costs and acquisition-related impacts; the gross margin of 47.33% (trailing) is pressured by high interest expense, which was $18.901 billion in Q4 2025 alone. The balance sheet and cash flow position is mixed: the company generated substantial trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $27.718 billion, providing internal funding capacity, but this is offset by the significant debt taken on for the Discover acquisition, reflected in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45; return on equity is a modest 2.16%, indicating inefficient use of shareholder capital in the current environment.
Quarterly Revenue
$19.7B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.42%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.57%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$27.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is COF Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is elevated at 53.42x, while the forward PE is substantially lower at 7.75x; this wide gap implies the market expects a dramatic recovery in earnings over the next twelve months, likely pricing in the full synergy benefits from the Discover integration and a normalization of credit costs. Compared to sector peers, Capital One trades at a premium on a Price-to-Sales basis (PS ratio of 1.89x), though direct industry average data is not provided; the forward PE of 7.75x appears low for a financial services company, potentially reflecting deep skepticism about the sustainability of its projected earnings rebound. Historically, the stock's own trailing PE has fluctuated wildly, from as low as -6.29x during the loss-making Q2 2025 to over 15x in profitable quarters; the current 53.42x trailing multiple is near the extreme high end of its recent historical range, which is an artifact of depressed trailing earnings rather than a high stock price, signaling the market is valuing the stock on future, not past, profitability.
PE
53.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -6x~22x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
