Church & Dwight
CHD
$96.78
+2.90%
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is a leading consumer packaged goods company operating in the Household & Personal Products industry, best known as the global leader in baking soda production and the steward of the iconic Arm & Hammer brand. The company has strategically expanded its portfolio beyond its legacy product into a diversified suite of household, personal care, and specialty products, including OxiClean, Vitafusion, and TheraBreath, with approximately 70% of sales and profits derived from its core power brands. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate a challenging consumer environment, marked by intense competition and private label pressure, while demonstrating resilience through its value-oriented brand portfolio and recent acquisitions like Touchland, which aim to bolster growth in niche segments.…
CHD
Church & Dwight
$96.78
CHD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Church & Dwight's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $125.81 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$125.81
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$77 - $126
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for CHD is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is not a widely followed large-cap name despite its market position. The available data shows consensus estimates for the next fiscal year, with an average EPS forecast of $4.77 and average revenue estimate of $7.14 billion, but a concrete consensus price target, recommendation, and target range are not provided in the dataset. The lack of a detailed analyst target distribution and price targets suggests institutional research coverage is sparse. The implication of insufficient analyst coverage is that CHD, while a sizable company, may suffer from lower visibility among the institutional investment community, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The recent institutional rating actions show a generally stable view, with firms like TD Cowen and Citigroup maintaining 'Hold' or 'Neutral' stances, and an upgrade from Rothschild & Co from 'Sell' to 'Neutral' in February 2026. The absence of a clear target price range from the data necessitates that investors rely more heavily on fundamental and technical analysis rather than external analyst consensus when evaluating the stock's potential.
Bulls vs Bears: CHD Investment Factors
The evidence currently tilts bearish, primarily due to the stock's severe relative underperformance, premium valuation in a slow-growth sector, and clear technical downtrend. The bull case rests on the company's defensive financial strength, consistent profitability, and cash generation. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the stock's premium valuation (27.62x trailing P/E) is justified by its modest ~4% revenue growth and defensive characteristics, or if it represents an overpriced asset in a market that has rotated away from stable, low-growth consumer staples. The resolution of this valuation-growth disconnect will determine the stock's direction.
Bullish
- Strong Profitability and Cash Flow: The company maintains robust profitability with a trailing net margin of 11.88% and a healthy gross margin of 44.73%. It generates substantial free cash flow of $1.093 billion TTM, providing significant financial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and acquisitions.
- Solid Balance Sheet with Low Debt: Church & Dwight has a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 and a current ratio of 1.07, indicating a strong and liquid financial position. This low leverage provides resilience during economic downturns and capacity for strategic investments.
- Resilient Revenue Growth in Tough Market: Q4 2025 revenue grew 3.93% year-over-year to $1.644 billion, demonstrating resilience in a challenging consumer environment. This growth is driven by the company's diversified portfolio of value-oriented power brands, which account for ~70% of sales.
- Attractive Forward P/E Valuation: The stock trades at a forward P/E of 23.45x, which is lower than its trailing P/E of 27.62x, indicating the market expects earnings growth. The forward multiple is based on analyst consensus EPS of $4.77, implying a reasonable valuation for a stable, defensive name.
Bearish
- Severe Relative Underperformance: The stock has dramatically underperformed the market, down 7.29% over the past three months versus the S&P 500's 8.42% gain, and down 0.54% over the past year versus the market's 25.19% surge. This signals a significant loss of investor favor and momentum.
- Elevated Valuation vs. Sector Peers: With a trailing P/E of 27.62x and forward P/E of 23.45x, CHD trades at a premium to typical consumer defensive sector multiples, which often reside in the high-teens to low-20s. This premium leaves little room for multiple expansion and increases downside risk if growth disappoints.
- Modest Growth in Mature Markets: Revenue growth of 3.93% YoY is modest and indicates the company's core US market, which drives 80% of sales, is mature. This slow growth profile may struggle to justify its premium valuation in a market favoring higher-growth stories.
- Recent Technical Downtrend and Weakness: The stock is in a clear downtrend, trading 11.3% below its 52-week high of $106.04 and having experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.71%. The price action shows a rejection from the $105 level, with momentum decisively negative over the past one and three months.
CHD Technical Analysis
The stock is in a clear downtrend from its recent highs, having declined 7.29% over the past three months and 0.61% over the past month, significantly underperforming the broader market which gained 8.42% and 5.6% over the same periods, respectively. Currently trading at $94.05, the price sits approximately 11.3% below its 52-week high of $106.04 and 15.6% above its 52-week low of $81.33, positioning it in the lower-middle portion of its annual range and suggesting a loss of momentum after a strong run earlier in the year. The 1-year price change of -0.54% further confirms the stock's consolidation and recent weakness, lagging the S&P 500's 25.19% gain by a substantial margin, indicating severe relative underperformance. Recent momentum is decisively negative, with the stock down 0.61% over the past month and 7.29% over the past three months, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's positive returns and signaling a breakdown from its previous uptrend that saw a YTD gain of 13.81% through February. This divergence from the market's strength, coupled with a beta of 0.482 indicating the stock is less than half as volatile as the market, suggests the recent decline is driven by company-specific or sector-specific concerns rather than broad market risk-off sentiment. The price action shows a clear rejection from the $105 level in late February, leading to a sustained sell-off into the low $90s, reflecting deteriorating investor sentiment. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $81.33, while immediate resistance is at the recent high near $106.04; a decisive break below the $93-$94 level, which has provided temporary footing, could open a path toward the $85-$87 zone. The stock's low beta of 0.482 implies it should exhibit lower volatility than the market, yet the recent 22.71% maximum drawdown from its peak highlights that it has not been immune to significant pullbacks, which is a critical consideration for risk-averse investors. A sustained move above the $100 psychological resistance would be necessary to signal a reversal of the current bearish momentum and challenge the downtrend that has been in place since February.
Beta
0.48
0.48x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$81-$106
Price range past year
Annual Return
+1.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CHD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.1% | +4.0% |
| 3m | -3.1% | +8.2% |
| 6m | +17.3% | +11.5% |
| 1y | +1.0% | +24.3% |
| ytd | +17.1% | +8.3% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
CHD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.644 billion representing a 3.93% year-over-year increase; however, this marks a sequential deceleration from the stronger growth rates seen in prior quarters of fiscal 2025. For the full fiscal year implied by the quarterly data, revenue trends show resilience but not acceleration, with the company's core portfolio, led by Arm & Hammer, OxiClean, and Vitafusion, likely driving the majority of sales in its stable but mature US market, which accounts for 80% of revenue. The 3.93% YoY growth, while positive, indicates the company is facing a challenging volume and pricing environment typical of the consumer staples sector, where market share gains are hard-fought. The company remains solidly profitable, posting Q4 2025 net income of $143.5 million and a trailing twelve-month net margin of 11.88%, supported by a robust gross margin of 44.73%. Profitability metrics have shown some quarterly volatility, as evidenced by the Q4 2024 net loss of -$75.1 million due to significant other expenses, but the core operating business is sound with an operating margin of 17.37%. The gross margin of 44.73% is healthy for the industry, though the sequential compression from the 45.85% reported in the most recent quarterly financials suggests potential cost pressures or promotional activity that warrant monitoring for margin sustainability. Balance sheet health is strong, characterized by a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 and a current ratio of 1.07, indicating sufficient short-term liquidity. The company generates substantial cash flow, with free cash flow over the trailing twelve months of $1.093 billion, providing ample internal funding for dividends, share buybacks, and strategic acquisitions. A return on equity of 18.41% demonstrates efficient use of shareholder capital, and the moderate debt level provides financial flexibility without excessive risk, supporting the company's ability to navigate economic cycles while returning capital to shareholders.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.03%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.45%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is CHD Overvalued?
Given the company's consistent profitability with a positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio stands at 27.62x, while the forward P/E is lower at 23.45x, indicating the market anticipates earnings growth and a slight multiple compression as forward estimates are incorporated. The gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests analysts expect earnings to improve, aligning with the forward EPS estimate of $4.77, which would represent a meaningful increase from recent quarterly EPS figures around $0.60. Compared to sector averages, Church & Dwight's valuation appears elevated; its trailing P/E of 27.62x and forward P/E of 23.45x are at a premium to the typical consumer defensive sector multiples, which often trade in the high-teens to low-20s. This premium is likely justified by the company's strong brand portfolio, consistent profitability with an 11.88% net margin, and its defensive characteristics in uncertain economic times, though it also prices in expectations for steady, if unspectacular, growth and reliable cash generation. Historically, the stock's current trailing P/E of 27.62x is above its own median level observed in recent quarters, which has fluctuated between the mid-20s and low-30s. Trading near the higher end of its historical valuation range suggests the market is already pricing in a stable outlook and the company's quality attributes, leaving limited room for multiple expansion. Investors are thus paying for predictability and brand strength, implying that significant upside from current levels would need to be driven by earnings growth exceeding expectations rather than a re-rating.
PE
27.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -85x~40x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: The primary financial risk is not leverage or liquidity, given the strong balance sheet (D/E 0.55), but rather margin pressure and earnings volatility. The gross margin compressed sequentially from 45.85% in the most recent quarter, signaling potential cost inflation or promotional activity that could threaten the healthy 44.73% TTM level. Furthermore, quarterly net income has shown volatility, including a Q4 2024 net loss of -$75.1M due to significant other expenses, indicating that reported earnings can be lumpy despite a sound core business. Revenue concentration is also a risk, with ~80% of sales derived from the mature US market, limiting geographic diversification and growth avenues.
Market & Competitive Risks: The most pressing market risk is valuation compression. Trading at a forward P/E of 23.45x, a premium to sector peers, CHD is vulnerable to de-rating if its growth fails to meet expectations or if investor sentiment continues to favor other sectors. The stock's low beta of 0.482 did not protect it from a 22.71% drawdown, showing it is not immune to company-specific sell-offs. Competitive risks include intense pressure from private label brands and larger CPG rivals in its core household and personal care categories, which could erode market share and pricing power in a challenging consumer environment.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a combination of margin compression, a growth slowdown below 2%, and a full valuation de-rating to sector-average multiples in the high-teens. This could be triggered by a significant earnings miss, a failed integration of recent acquisitions like Touchland, or a deeper consumer recession prompting trade-down behavior. In this adverse scenario, the stock could realistically revisit its 52-week low of $81.33, representing a downside of approximately -13.5% from the current price of $94.05. A break below that level could see further declines toward the $75-$78 range, amplifying losses to -20% or more.
