CF Industries Holding, Inc.
CF
$126.16
-5.70%
CF Industries Holding, Inc. is a leading global producer and distributor of nitrogen-based fertilizers, operating primarily in the Agricultural Inputs industry within the Basic Materials sector. The company's competitive identity is defined by its position as one of the world's lowest-cost nitrogen producers, leveraging low-cost U.S. natural gas as its primary feedstock and operating a significant manufacturing footprint across North America, the United Kingdom, and Trinidad and Tobago. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the company's status as a direct beneficiary of the severe global supply chain disruption caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has stranded a significant portion of global fertilizer supply, creating a massive margin opportunity for North American producers with local inputs, while the company is also garnering attention for its strategic investments in carbon-free blue and green ammonia as a future energy and hydrogen transport vector.…
CF
CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$126.16
CF 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on CF Industries Holding, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $164.01 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$164.01
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$101 - $164
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a stock with more specialized or concentrated institutional interest. The consensus appears mixed, as recent institutional ratings show a split between 'Outperform' (BMO Capital, Wells Fargo, Barclays), 'Neutral' (CIBC, UBS, Scotiabank, RBC Capital), and 'Underperform' (Mizuho, B of A Securities), with Mizuho notably downgrading from Neutral to Underperform in mid-March 2026. The wide range in EPS estimates for the forward period, from a low of $6.31 to a high of $9.32, signals high uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's future earnings trajectory, reflecting the unpredictable nature of the geopolitical and commodity price drivers currently influencing the business.
CF Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +62.81% and a 3-month surge of +62.20%. As of the latest close of $129.97, the stock is trading at approximately 88% of its 52-week range ($67.34 to $141.96), indicating it is near its cycle highs and reflecting strong bullish momentum, though also suggesting potential for overextension. Recent momentum is exceptionally strong and accelerating, with a 1-month gain of +22.27% dramatically outpacing the broader market's -4.28% decline, as shown by a relative strength of +26.55; this short-term surge aligns with and amplifies the longer-term uptrend, driven by recent geopolitical catalysts affecting fertilizer supply. Key technical levels are clear, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $67.34 and formidable resistance at the 52-week high of $141.96; a decisive breakout above $141.96 would signal a continuation of the powerful bull trend, while the stock's beta of 0.516 indicates it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market, a notable characteristic given its recent explosive moves, which may suggest the rally has been driven by fundamental repricing rather than speculative frenzy.
Beta
0.52
0.52x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$67-$142
Price range past year
Annual Return
+84.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.6% | -0.3% |
| 3m | +55.1% | -2.0% |
| 6m | +44.4% | +3.5% |
| 1y | +84.3% | +36.2% |
| ytd | +57.4% | -0.9% |
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CF Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is robust and accelerating, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.87 billion representing a 22.83% year-over-year increase, building on strong sequential performance from prior quarters; segment data shows Ammonia sales of $708 million were the primary driver, indicating the core business line is capitalizing on favorable market conditions. Profitability is strong with expanding margins, as evidenced by Q4 2025 net income of $404 million and a gross margin of 41.08%, which improved from 34.32% in the year-ago quarter; the trailing twelve-month net margin of 20.54% and operating margin of 33.39% demonstrate the company's ability to convert top-line strength into substantial bottom-line results. The balance sheet is healthy and cash-generative, with a strong current ratio of 3.37, a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.82, and robust free cash flow of $1.80 billion over the trailing twelve months, providing ample liquidity to fund operations, shareholder returns, and strategic investments without reliance on excessive external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.22%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.41%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.8B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CF Overvalued?
Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 8.62x, while the forward P/E is 17.55x; this significant gap implies the market is pricing in a substantial earnings decline in the coming year, likely anticipating a normalization of the current super-cycle margins driven by geopolitical events. Compared to sector averages, the stock's trailing P/E of 8.62x and Price/Sales of 1.77x are not directly comparable without a provided industry benchmark, but the low absolute multiples suggest the market may not be fully pricing in the sustainability of recent profitability or the strategic value of its low-cost position and energy transition projects. Historically, the current trailing P/E of 8.62x is below the multi-year range observed in the historical ratios data, which has seen peaks above 25x during downturns; trading near the lower end of its own historical valuation band suggests the stock is not priced for perfection and may offer value if the current earnings power proves more durable than expected.
PE
8.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -16x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple