Coeur Mining
CDE
$17.63
-1.12%
Coeur Mining Inc. is a metals producer focused on the discovery and mining of precious minerals, primarily gold and silver, with operations across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company operates as a mid-tier producer in the gold mining industry, distinguished by its portfolio of assets in the Americas, including the Palmarejo, Rochester, Wharf, and Kensington mines. The current investor narrative is dominated by the stock's extreme sensitivity to precious metal price volatility and a debate over its valuation, as recent news highlights both significant perceived undervaluation based on reserve calculations and sharp price declines tied directly to falling gold and silver prices, reflecting the classic high-beta nature of mining equities.…
CDE
Coeur Mining
$17.63
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CDE Today?
Rating & Thesis: Hold. CDE presents a compelling but high-risk value proposition where exceptional fundamental improvement conflicts with extreme technical weakness and commodity dependency. The lack of analyst consensus (only one covering) prevents anchoring to a clear price target, requiring investors to rely on their own metal price views.
Supporting Evidence: The investment case rests on four specific data points: 1) Explosive Q4 revenue growth of 120.94% YoY, 2) Robust profitability with net margin of 31.85% and ROE of 17.68%, 3) Strong financial position evidenced by $665.72M TTM FCF and D/E of 0.11, and 4) Deep forward valuation discount at 7.85x P/E versus 19.33x trailing. However, these positives are counterbalanced by the stock's -21.45% 3-month decline and high beta of 1.242.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are gold price reversal eroding margins and technical breakdown below $16 support triggering further selling. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if: 1) The stock establishes a base above $16 and shows relative strength versus gold prices, or 2) Forward P/E compresses further below 6x while growth estimates hold. It would downgrade to Sell if: 1) Revenue growth decelerates below 50% YoY, or 2) The stock breaks below $15 toward its 200-day moving average. Currently, the stock appears fairly valued given its cyclical nature but undervalued on forward earnings if estimates prove accurate.
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CDE 12-Month Price Forecast
CDE sits at an inflection point where spectacular fundamental progress meets severe technical deterioration. The forward valuation suggests tremendous earnings growth is already priced in, yet the trailing multiples remain elevated for a miner. The stock's fate is inextricably linked to gold prices, but superior operational execution could eventually decouple it from pure commodity tracking. The stance would upgrade to bullish if the stock holds above $16 while gold stabilizes, confirming the correction as healthy. It would turn bearish if Q3 earnings show margin compression despite stable revenues, signaling peak profitability has passed.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coeur Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $22.92 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$22.92
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$14 - $23
Analyst target range
Insufficient analyst coverage available. The provided data indicates only one analyst providing estimates, with no consensus recommendation or target price data presented. This limited coverage is typical for mid-cap mining companies and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as the stock's moves are more driven by commodity prices and broad market sentiment than by a deep bench of institutional research. The single analyst's revenue estimate for the next period averages $7.96 billion, but without a price target or rating distribution, meaningful consensus sentiment cannot be determined. The implications of minimal coverage are significant: it often results in a wider bid-ask spread, lower trading liquidity, and a greater potential for mispricing, both to the upside and downside. Investors must rely more heavily on their own fundamental and technical analysis. The recent institutional rating actions show a mix, with Canaccord Genuity downgrading from Buy to Hold in February 2026, while RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating, indicating some divergence in near-term views among the few covering firms.
Bulls vs Bears: CDE Investment Factors
The bull case, anchored in explosive fundamental improvement and deep forward valuation discount, currently holds stronger evidence. The bear case is primarily technical and sentiment-driven, reflecting the stock's high-beta nature. The single most important tension is between the company's dramatically improved financial profile (120% revenue growth, 31.85% net margins, strong FCF) and the market's persistent treatment of it as a purely cyclical, commodity-price pawn. Resolution depends on whether sustained operational excellence can decouple the stock from daily metal price movements and command a re-rating toward its fundamental value.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue & Profit Growth: Q4 2025 revenue surged 120.94% YoY to $674.85M, while net income reached $214.97M with a robust net margin of 31.85%. This demonstrates powerful operational leverage as the company scales, with gross margin expanding from 38.56% to 53.70% over the year.
- Strong Balance Sheet & Cash Flow: The company has a fortress balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of only 0.11 and a current ratio of 2.00. It generated $665.72M in trailing free cash flow, providing ample liquidity for growth and capital returns without financial stress.
- Extremely Low Forward Valuation: With a forward P/E of just 7.85x based on estimated EPS of $1.495, the stock trades at a significant discount to its own trailing P/E of 19.33x. This implies the market is pricing in minimal future growth despite recent explosive performance.
- Reserve Undervaluation Signal: Recent news highlighted that Coeur's proven gold reserves are worth 49% more than its entire market capitalization. This fundamental asset-based valuation suggests the equity is deeply undervalued relative to its underlying mineral resources.
Bearish
- Extreme Sensitivity to Gold Prices: The stock's price action is directly tied to precious metal volatility, with recent declines of -10.47% (1-month) and -21.45% (3-month) mirroring gold/silver price drops. Its beta of 1.242 confirms it is 24% more volatile than the broader market.
- Sharp Technical Correction Underway: The current price of $17.61 represents a 35%+ drawdown from the February 2026 peak of $27.15 and sits at just 40% of its 52-week range ($7.15-$27.77). This breakdown suggests broken momentum and potential further downside to test support.
- Vulnerable High Valuation Multiples: Despite the low forward P/E, trailing multiples remain elevated with a P/S of 5.47x and P/B of 3.42x. These levels make the stock susceptible to multiple compression if growth decelerates or metal prices retreat from recent highs.
- Limited Analyst Coverage & Liquidity: With only one analyst providing estimates and no consensus price target, the stock suffers from poor visibility and inefficient price discovery. This contributes to higher volatility and wider spreads, increasing trading costs for investors.
CDE Technical Analysis
The stock is in a volatile, corrective phase within a powerful longer-term uptrend. The 1-year price change of +137.65% indicates a sustained, strong bullish trend, but the current price of $17.61 sits at approximately 40% of its 52-week range ($7.15 to $27.77), suggesting a significant pullback from recent highs and positioning the stock in a lower-mid range, which may indicate a value opportunity or a pause in momentum. Recent momentum has turned sharply negative, diverging from the longer-term trend, with a 1-month decline of -10.47% and a more pronounced 3-month drop of -21.45%, signaling a significant near-term correction and potential profit-taking after the prior rally. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $27.77 as major resistance and the 52-week low of $7.15 as critical support. A breakout above the $27.77 resistance would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a breakdown below the $7.15 support would indicate a complete trend reversal. The stock's beta of 1.242 confirms it is approximately 24% more volatile than the broader market (SPY), which is typical for gold miners and necessitates larger position-sizing buffers to account for amplified price swings, as evidenced by its -29.87 relative strength versus the SPY over the past three months. The price action from the provided data shows a dramatic peak at $27.15 in late February 2026, followed by a steep decline to the current $17.61, representing a drawdown of over 35% from that high. This high volatility is characteristic of the sector and is reflected in the stock's beta. The recent trading below the 20-day and likely 50-day moving averages, inferred from the price trajectory, suggests bearish near-term momentum, with the stock searching for a support level to establish a base.
Beta
1.24
1.24x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-40.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$8-$28
Price range past year
Annual Return
+128.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CDE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.8% | +4.8% |
| 3m | -28.4% | +8.2% |
| 6m | +26.0% | +13.1% |
| 1y | +128.4% | +27.9% |
| ytd | +0.5% | +9.3% |
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CDE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown explosive growth on a year-over-year basis, with Q4 2025 revenue of $674.85 million representing a 120.94% increase compared to the prior year's quarter. The multi-quarter trend indicates accelerating growth, as revenue surged from $360.06 million in Q1 2025 to $674.85 million in Q4 2025, driven by higher production and robust precious metal prices. Segment data shows Gold revenue of $424.80 million and Silver revenue of $250.04 million for the latest period, confirming the company's dual commodity focus and indicating both segments are contributing significantly to the top-line expansion. Profitability has improved dramatically, with the company reporting net income of $214.97 million and a net margin of 31.85% for Q4 2025. Gross margin for the quarter was a healthy 53.70%, indicating strong operational efficiency in converting mined resources into revenue. The margin trajectory is positive, with gross margin expanding from 38.56% in Q1 2025 to 53.70% in Q4 2025, showcasing significant operating leverage and cost control as revenue scaled, a crucial development for the investment thesis. The balance sheet is solid, with a strong current ratio of 2.00 and a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, indicating minimal financial leverage and ample liquidity. The company is generating substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $665.72 million, providing internal funding for growth and capital returns. Return on Equity (ROE) of 17.68% is respectable and reflects efficient use of shareholder capital, especially when combined with the robust free cash flow generation, which significantly de-risks the financial profile.
Quarterly Revenue
$674847000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.20%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.53%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$665717000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CDE Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 19.33x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 7.85x, based on estimated EPS of $1.495. This substantial gap implies the market is pricing in a significant acceleration in earnings growth over the next twelve months, reflecting expectations of sustained high metal prices and operational execution. Comparing to industry averages is challenging as specific sector multiples are not provided in the data. However, the stock's valuation can be contextualized by its own profitability; a trailing PE of 19.33x for a gold miner with a 31.85% net margin and 17.68% ROE does not appear excessive if these elevated margins are sustainable. The forward PE of 7.85x seems particularly low, potentially indicating a discount if the earnings estimates are achieved. Historically, the stock's own valuation has fluctuated wildly. The current trailing PE of 19.33x is below the recent high of 22.83x seen in Q1 2025 but above the low of 4.87x from late 2022. This places it in the mid-to-upper range of its own recent historical band, suggesting the market is pricing in improved fundamentals but not at peak optimism. The sharp decline in the forward PE relative to history signals expectations of normalized, strong earnings rather than peak-cycle earnings.
PE
19.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -30x~373x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: While the balance sheet is strong with minimal debt (D/E 0.11), the primary financial risk is earnings volatility tied directly to gold and silver prices. The company's impressive 31.85% net margin and 53.70% gross margin in Q4 2025 are likely peak-cycle figures that could compress rapidly if metal prices decline. Revenue concentration in two commodities (gold $424.80M and silver $250.04M in Q4) creates binary exposure without diversification. The valuation relies on continued high profitability to justify its trailing P/E of 19.33x, creating vulnerability if margins normalize.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock trades at premium multiples (P/S 5.47x, EV/Sales 7.79x) for a mining company, making it susceptible to valuation compression if sector sentiment sours. Its beta of 1.242 confirms high correlation to market swings, and its -29.87 relative strength versus SPY over three months shows severe underperformance during market strength. Competitive risks include operational cost inflation and the capital-intensive nature of mining, where sustained high returns require continuous reserve replacement and efficient execution. Recent analyst divergence (Canaccord downgrade to Hold vs. RBC Outperform) highlights uncertainty about near-term prospects.
Worst-Case Scenario: A sustained downturn in precious metal prices combined with operational setbacks could trigger a perfect storm. The stock could retest its 52-week low of $7.15, representing a -59% decline from the current $17.61. This scenario would likely involve multiple compression (forward P/E expanding rather than contracting as earnings fall), forced production cuts, and potential dividend suspension (though none exists currently). The maximum drawdown of -40.44% shows the stock's capacity for severe losses, and in a bear market for commodities, losses could exceed this historical measure.
FAQ
The primary risks are: 1) Commodity price risk - the stock's -21.45% 3-month decline directly correlates with gold/silver price drops, and its beta of 1.242 confirms amplified market swings. 2) Valuation compression risk - elevated trailing multiples (P/S 5.47x) could contract if growth decelerates. 3) Operational risk - maintaining 53.70% gross margins requires perfect execution amid cost inflation. 4) Liquidity risk - with only one analyst covering, price discovery is inefficient, contributing to volatility. These risks rank in severity with commodity exposure being most critical, as it directly drives both revenues and investor sentiment.
The 12-month forecast presents three scenarios with associated probabilities: Bull case (30% probability) targeting $27.77-$32.00 if gold rallies and earnings beat estimates. Base case (50% probability) targeting $19.00-$24.00 if metal prices range-bound and Coeur meets $1.495 EPS estimates. Bear case (20% probability) targeting $7.15-$14.00 if gold enters a sustained bear market. The base case is most likely, centered around the forward P/E of 7.85-10x applied to achievable earnings. The key assumption is that gold prices stabilize between $2,200-$2,400/oz, allowing margins to remain above 30% while growth normalizes from explosive levels.
CDE sends mixed valuation signals. On a trailing basis with a P/E of 19.33x, P/S of 5.47x, and P/B of 3.42x, it trades at premium multiples for a mining company. However, the forward P/E of just 7.85x based on estimated EPS of $1.495 suggests the market expects massive earnings growth and prices the stock at a significant discount to its current profitability. Compared to its own historical range (PE low of 4.87x in 2022 to high of 22.83x in Q1 2025), current levels are in the mid-to-upper range. The valuation implies the market expects peak margins to moderate but still believes in substantial earnings growth.
CDE presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity that is only suitable for certain investors. For those with a strong bullish view on gold prices and tolerance for volatility (beta 1.242), the stock offers compelling value at a forward P/E of 7.85x alongside explosive fundamental improvement (120.94% revenue growth). However, the recent -21.45% 3-month decline and lack of analyst consensus create substantial uncertainty. It's a good buy for aggressive investors seeking leveraged gold exposure, but conservative investors should avoid due to the commodity dependency and technical weakness.
CDE is better suited for medium-to-long-term investment (2+ years) despite its high volatility. The company's transformation story requires time to validate whether improved margins (31.85% net) are sustainable across cycles. Short-term trading is challenging due to the stock's direct correlation with daily gold price movements and limited analyst coverage causing erratic price action. Long-term investors can benefit if operational improvements prove durable, but must withstand significant drawdowns (maximum -40.44% historically). The lack of dividend (0% yield) eliminates income appeal, making it purely a capital appreciation play dependent on gold prices and execution over multiple years.
