Carrier Corporation
CARR
$63.34
+3.06%
Carrier Global Corporation is a leading global provider of heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, and fire and security solutions, operating primarily within the industrials sector. The company is a market leader in HVAC and refrigeration, distinguished by its iconic Carrier brand and a portfolio that spans residential, commercial, and transport applications, with a strategic focus following its 2024 acquisition of Viessmann Climate Solutions to bolster its European heat pump and sustainable climate solutions business. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic transformation into a pure-play climate solutions leader, with debates focusing on the integration and growth potential of the Viessmann acquisition, the execution of its portfolio simplification, and its positioning to capitalize on global decarbonization and energy efficiency trends.…
CARR
Carrier Corporation
$63.34
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CARR 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Carrier Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $82.34 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$82.34
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$51 - $82
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Carrier is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, indicating this large-cap stock may have subdued institutional interest post-spinoff and restructuring. The consensus leans bullish among recent ratings, with firms like Citigroup, UBS, and RBC Capital maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings, while Wells Fargo and JP Morgan are at Neutral or Equal Weight, suggesting cautious optimism is the prevailing sentiment. The wide range in EPS estimates for the coming year, from a low of $4.15 to a high of $4.44, reflects uncertainty around the pace of the company's earnings recovery and the successful integration of its strategic acquisitions, with the target price spread likely mirroring this divergence in fundamental outlooks.
CARR Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained downtrend over the past year, evidenced by a 1-year price change of -14.345%, and is currently trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, approximately 31% above its 52-week low of $50.24 but significantly below its high of $81.09, suggesting it is in a value-seeking zone but remains under significant pressure. Recent short-term momentum shows a sharp deceleration, with the stock down 8.9259% over the past month, which contrasts with a modestly positive 3-month change of 4.0919%, indicating recent selling pressure has erased earlier 2026 gains and the stock is struggling to find a durable bottom. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $50.24, while resistance lies near the 52-week high of $81.09; a breakdown below $50 would signal a new leg down, while the stock's beta of 1.319 indicates it is approximately 32% more volatile than the broader market, which amplifies both risk and potential reward during any recovery phase.
Beta
1.32
1.32x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-37.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$50-$81
Price range past year
Annual Return
+7.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CARR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +7.9% | +0.5% |
| 3m | +12.6% | -2.1% |
| 6m | +11.8% | +4.0% |
| 1y | +7.3% | +29.5% |
| ytd | +18.3% | -0.4% |
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CARR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been volatile and recently negative, with Q4 2025 revenue of $4.837 billion representing a year-over-year decline of 6.04%, and a sequential drop from Q3's $5.579 billion, indicating near-term top-line pressure, though the service segment ($699 million in the latest period) provides a more stable revenue stream alongside the larger product segment ($4.138 billion). Profitability has weakened considerably, with Q4 2025 net income plunging to $62 million (a net margin of 1.28%) from $428 million in Q3, while the gross margin compressed to 19.87% in Q4 from 25.97% in the prior quarter, reflecting significant margin pressure and earnings volatility in the near term. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.92, and the company generated substantial trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $2.094 billion, providing financial flexibility, though the current ratio of 1.20 indicates adequate but not robust short-term liquidity.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.8B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.06%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.19%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CARR Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is elevated at 29.7x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 17.57x, indicating the market expects a substantial earnings recovery in the coming year. Compared to sector averages, Carrier's forward P/E of 17.57x trades at a premium to the broader industrials sector (typically low-teens), which may be justified by its market-leading position and exposure to secular climate solution trends, but the premium is under scrutiny given recent earnings volatility. Historically, the stock's current trailing P/E of 29.7x is above its own multi-year range seen in recent quarters (often between 5x and 30x+), suggesting the market is still pricing in a relatively optimistic earnings normalization despite the recent sharp profit decline.
PE
29.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 6x~179x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple