BURLINGTON STORES, INC.
BURL
$337.97
+2.81%
Burlington Stores, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer in the United States, operating in the Apparel - Retail industry under the Consumer Cyclical sector. The company's core business involves offering a broad selection of in-season, fashion-focused merchandise, including apparel, accessories, home goods, and toys, sourced directly from national manufacturers. As a major player in the off-price retail space, Burlington competes by providing significant value to cost-conscious consumers seeking brand-name goods at discounted prices. The current investor narrative is focused on the company's ability to sustain strong growth in a potentially softening consumer environment, with recent quarterly results showing robust revenue expansion and margin improvement, which has driven significant stock price appreciation and market attention.…
BURL
BURLINGTON STORES, INC.
$337.97
BURL 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on BURLINGTON STORES, INC.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $439.36 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$439.36
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$270 - $439
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Burlington appears limited in the provided dataset, with only 3 analysts cited for EPS and revenue estimates, which is insufficient to derive a robust consensus target price or recommendation distribution. The data shows estimated EPS for the next period averaging $16.42, with a range from $16.02 to $16.83, and estimated revenue averaging $15.54 billion. However, without a published average price target or Buy/Hold/Sell breakdown, a precise calculation of implied upside or consensus sentiment cannot be determined from this data. The implication of limited visible analyst coverage is significant. It may indicate that Burlington, despite its ~$19 billion market cap, is not covered by a broad swath of sell-side firms in the dataset provided, or that coverage data is incomplete. This can sometimes lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as the stock may be more driven by periodic earnings reports and direct institutional flows rather than continuous analyst scrutiny. The recent institutional ratings data shows several firms (e.g., Telsey, Baird, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Barclays) maintaining positive 'Outperform' or 'Overweight' ratings as recently as March 2026, suggesting the analyst community that does cover it remains bullish, but a comprehensive quantitative consensus is not available here.
Bulls vs Bears: BURL Investment Factors
The evidence currently leans bullish, driven by accelerating revenue growth, significant margin expansion, and powerful technical momentum. The bear case is anchored in a premium valuation, high financial leverage, and elevated volatility. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company's accelerating growth and margin expansion can justify and sustain its peak valuation multiples, or if the high leverage and cyclical sensitivity will trigger a multiple compression. The resolution of this tension will determine if the stock continues its ascent or experiences a significant correction.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q4 FY2025 revenue grew 11.47% YoY to $3.65 billion, marking a significant acceleration from prior trends. This demonstrates the company's strong execution and ability to capture market share in the value-oriented retail segment, providing a robust foundation for future earnings.
- Impressive Margin Expansion: Q4 net margin expanded to 8.51%, up from 7.97% a year ago and a substantial improvement from Q3's 3.86%. Operating margin also surged to 11.28% from 5.74% in Q3, indicating effective cost control and operating leverage on higher sales volumes.
- Powerful Technical Momentum: The stock has gained 28.87% over the past year and 27.03% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. Recent momentum is exceptionally strong, with a 9.44% gain over the past month, supported by a relative strength of +13.72% versus the market.
- Strong Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $937.5 million in operating cash flow in the latest quarter and $231.7 million in TTM free cash flow. This robust cash generation provides a cushion to service its high debt load and fund growth initiatives without external financing.
Bearish
- Premium Valuation at Peak Multiples: The trailing PE of 31.09x is near the high end of its historical range and well above typical apparel retail multiples. The forward PE of 24.40x, while lower, still implies high growth expectations, leaving little room for error.
- High Financial Leverage: The debt-to-equity ratio is elevated at 3.32, indicating a capital structure heavily reliant on debt. This amplifies financial risk, making the company more sensitive to rising interest rates or an earnings downturn.
- High Beta and Volatility: With a beta of 1.62, BURL is approximately 62% more volatile than the broader market. This was evidenced by a maximum drawdown of -19.55%, indicating significant downside risk during market corrections.
- Limited Analyst Coverage Visibility: Only 3 analysts are cited for estimates in the provided dataset, suggesting potentially less efficient price discovery and higher reliance on periodic earnings reports. This can contribute to heightened volatility around earnings events.
BURL Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained and powerful uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +28.87% and a 6-month gain of +27.03%. As of the latest close of $328.73, the price is trading near the top of its 52-week range, approximately 98.5% of the way from its low of $212.92 to its high of $333.89, indicating strong momentum but also potential overextension. Recent momentum has been exceptionally strong, with the stock up 9.44% over the past month and 10.17% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which declined -4.28% and -4.0% over the same periods, respectively. This divergence highlights BURL's relative strength and suggests the uptrend is accelerating, though the proximity to the 52-week high warrants caution for a near-term pullback. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $212.92, while immediate resistance sits at the 52-week high of $333.89. A decisive breakout above $333.89 would signal a continuation of the bullish trend and potentially open the door to new highs, whereas a breakdown below the recent consolidation range around $300 could indicate a deeper correction. The stock exhibits high volatility with a beta of 1.62, meaning it is approximately 62% more volatile than the broader market, which is critical for risk management and position sizing, especially given the stock's elevated valuation and strong recent performance. The stock's volatility is further underscored by a maximum drawdown of -19.55% over the observed period, a significant but recoverable decline typical of a high-beta name. The current price action, having rallied sharply from a low near $242 in early December 2025 to recent highs, shows the stock's capacity for rapid moves in both directions. The high beta and strong relative strength metrics, such as a 1-month relative strength of +13.72% versus the S&P 500, confirm BURL is a high-momentum, high-risk/high-reward proposition in the current market environment.
Beta
1.62
1.62x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$213-$339
Price range past year
Annual Return
+46.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BURL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +10.6% | -2.0% |
| 3m | +8.5% | -4.8% |
| 6m | +25.5% | -2.1% |
| 1y | +46.0% | +30.4% |
| ytd | +13.3% | -3.4% |
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BURL Fundamental Analysis
Burlington's revenue trajectory is robust and accelerating, with the most recent Q4 FY2025 revenue reaching $3.65 billion, representing a strong year-over-year growth rate of 11.47%. This marks a significant acceleration from the prior-year Q4 growth trend, indicating the company is successfully capturing market share and benefiting from favorable consumer demand for value-oriented retail. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent top-line strength, with revenue growing from $2.50 billion in Q1 FY2025 to the latest $3.65 billion, demonstrating sequential improvement and effective execution of its off-price model. This sustained growth is the primary driver of the bullish investment case, suggesting operational momentum is intact. The company is solidly profitable, with Q4 FY2025 net income of $310.4 million and a net margin of 8.51%. Profitability metrics have shown impressive expansion; the Q4 net margin of 8.51% is a substantial improvement over the Q3 margin of 3.86% and the year-ago Q4 margin of 7.97%. Gross margin for the quarter was a healthy 40.11%, consistent with the company's historical range and the industry benchmark for off-price retail. The expansion in operating income, which reached $411.3 million with an operating margin of 11.28% in Q4, up from 5.74% in Q3, indicates effective cost control and leverage on higher sales volumes, a key positive for earnings quality. Balance sheet health is a point of consideration, characterized by a high degree of financial leverage. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 3.32, indicating a capital structure heavily reliant on debt financing, which is common in capital-intensive retail but amplifies financial risk. However, the company generates substantial cash flow, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $231.7 million and an operating cash flow of $937.5 million for the latest quarter. The current ratio of 1.23 suggests adequate short-term liquidity. The return on equity is exceptionally high at 33.76%, driven by the significant leverage, but this also means shareholder returns are sensitive to changes in interest rates or earnings. The company's ability to generate strong operating cash flow provides a cushion to service its debt and fund growth initiatives.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.6B
2026-01
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.11%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.40%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$231745000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is BURL Overvalued?
Given Burlington's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing twelve-month PE ratio is 31.09x, while the forward PE is notably lower at 24.40x. This gap of approximately 6.7 points, or a 27% discount for forward earnings, implies the market anticipates significant earnings growth in the coming year, aligning with the strong recent quarterly results and analyst estimates for EPS of $16.42. Compared to sector averages, Burlington trades at a significant premium. Its trailing PE of 31.09x is well above typical market multiples for apparel retailers, which often trade in the mid-teens to low-20s. Similarly, its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 1.64x and EV/EBITDA of 18.74x are elevated. This premium valuation is likely justified by the market rewarding Burlington's superior growth profile, margin expansion potential, and leading position in the resilient off-price segment, especially as it demonstrates an ability to gain market share while more traditional retailers struggle. Historically, Burlington's current trailing PE of 31.09x sits above its own recent historical range observed in the provided data. For instance, its PE ratio at the end of FY2024 (Jan 2025) was 17.64x, and it was 13.44x at the end of FY2023. The current multiple is near the higher end of its multi-year spectrum, suggesting the market is pricing in very optimistic expectations for sustained high growth and profitability. While this reflects strong confidence, it also leaves little room for operational missteps and increases downside risk if growth were to decelerate.
PE
31.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 13x~338x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Burlington's primary financial risk stems from its high degree of leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32. While strong operating cash flow of $937.5 million in the latest quarter provides a service cushion, a sustained downturn in consumer spending or a margin squeeze could strain its ability to meet obligations. The company's profitability, while improving, has shown volatility, with net margin swinging from 3.86% in Q3 to 8.51% in Q4, indicating potential earnings instability. Furthermore, the business is inherently tied to the cyclical consumer discretionary sector, making revenue growth sensitive to macroeconomic conditions.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock trades at a significant premium, with a trailing PE of 31.09x, well above typical apparel retail multiples. This creates valuation compression risk if growth decelerates or if investor sentiment shifts away from high-momentum names. The high beta of 1.62 confirms the stock is highly sensitive to broader market moves, as seen in its 29% outperformance over the S&P 500 in the last six months. Competitive risks are ever-present in off-price retail, though Burlington's recent 11.47% revenue growth suggests it is currently gaining share. Any misstep in inventory management or brand relationships could quickly reverse this trend.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a combination of a sharp consumer recession, leading to a significant deceleration in revenue growth below 5%, coupled with margin contraction back towards Q3 levels. This would trigger multiple compression from the current 31x trailing PE towards its historical low of around 13x, compounded by high leverage amplifying the earnings decline. A realistic downside could see the stock re-testing its 52-week low of $212.92, representing a potential loss of approximately -35% from the current price of $328.73. Such a decline is plausible given the stock's history of a -19.55% maximum drawdown and its high volatility profile.