Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock
APLD
$27.79
+10.37%
Applied Digital Corporation designs, develops, and operates next-generation digital infrastructure across North America, providing data center hosting and high-performance computing (HPC) solutions primarily for cryptocurrency mining and, increasingly, artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. The company operates as a niche player in the digital infrastructure space, historically focused on crypto mining hosting but actively pivoting its narrative towards capitalizing on the AI boom. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on this strategic pivot to AI infrastructure, validated by a recent $2.15 billion financing deal, but this is tempered by significant skepticism regarding its high financial leverage, persistent unprofitability, and the intense execution risk associated with transitioning its business model.…
APLD
Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock
$27.79
Related headlines
APLD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $36.13 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$36.13
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$22 - $36
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited, with only two analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a stock with less institutional scrutiny which can lead to higher volatility. The consensus sentiment among the few covering firms is uniformly bullish, with all recent institutional actions being Buys or Outperforms, and the average revenue estimate for the coming year is $4.73 billion, implying massive growth from current levels. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the wide dispersion between the low and high revenue estimates ($3.67 billion to $5.47 billion) signals very high uncertainty about the company's future financial performance; the high estimate assumes successful execution of the AI pivot and new contracts, while the low estimate may factor in significant execution risks and potential financing challenges. The minimal analyst coverage, combined with the company's high-risk profile, suggests that price discovery is less efficient and investor conviction is largely based on the speculative AI infrastructure narrative rather than established fundamentals.
APLD Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its recent highs, having declined 12.63% over the last three months and 6.08% over the last month, which contrasts sharply with its staggering 293.59% gain over the past year. As of the latest close of $24.56, the price is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, approximately 58% above its 52-week low of $3.31 but 42% below its 52-week high of $42.27, indicating a significant retreat from peak optimism and positioning the stock in a zone that could represent either a value opportunity or a continuation of its decline. Recent momentum is decisively negative, with the 1-month loss of 6.08% and 3-month loss of 12.63% both underperforming the broader market (SPY down 4.28% and 4.0% respectively), signaling a strong bearish divergence from the explosive longer-term trend and suggesting a potential trend reversal or a deep correction as speculative fervor cools. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $3.31, though more immediate support lies near recent lows around $20.55, while resistance is firmly established at the 52-week high of $42.27; a breakdown below recent support could trigger a sharp sell-off, while the stock's extreme beta of 7.27 indicates it is over seven times more volatile than the market, making it a high-risk, high-reward proposition that demands careful risk management.
Beta
7.27
7.27x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-57.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$3-$42
Price range past year
Annual Return
+447.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | APLD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.8% | -0.3% |
| 3m | -13.0% | -2.0% |
| 6m | -18.2% | +3.5% |
| 1y | +447.0% | +36.2% |
| ytd | -1.1% | -0.9% |
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APLD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is explosive but shows signs of deceleration on a sequential basis; the most recent quarterly revenue of $126.59 million represents a 98.2% year-over-year surge, yet this follows an even more dramatic quarter-over-quarter increase from $64.22 million, indicating robust top-line expansion driven by the company's infrastructure build-out. The company remains deeply unprofitable, with a net loss of $17.51 million last quarter and a gross margin of 20.57%, which, while an improvement from the prior quarter's 13.41%, is still thin and highlights the capital-intensive, low-margin nature of its data center hosting business; the operating margin was -24.45%, and the net margin was -13.83%, showing losses are substantial relative to sales. The balance sheet and cash flow situation is precarious, characterized by heavy investment and significant leverage; free cash flow over the trailing twelve months is deeply negative at -$1.34 billion, the debt-to-equity ratio is elevated at 1.11, and the current ratio is a weak 0.77, indicating potential liquidity strain as the company aggressively funds capital expenditures ($552.07 million last quarter alone) to build out its AI infrastructure, relying heavily on external financing rather than internal cash generation.
Quarterly Revenue
$126589000.0B
2025-11
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.98%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.20%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-1.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is APLD Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 6.38x, while the forward-looking Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) is significantly higher at 31.00x; this substantial gap suggests the market is pricing in aggressive future revenue growth, aligning with analyst estimates for annual revenue to reach approximately $4.73 billion. Compared to industry averages, data is not available for a precise sector PS ratio comparison, but the company's valuation is entirely driven by growth expectations rather than current profitability, as evidenced by negative margins and a negative P/CF ratio of -11.91. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly, from a low near 8.96x in mid-2024 to a high of 63.68x in late 2025; the current PS of 6.38x sits near the lower end of this recent historical range, which could indicate the market has significantly de-risked the growth story or is pricing in a higher probability of fundamental deterioration following the recent price decline.
PE
-5.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -379x~-2x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-21.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple

