Contura Energy
AMR
$206.77
+6.02%
Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based coal mining company operating in the Energy sector. It is a key producer of low-ash metallurgical coal, serving domestic and international steel and coke producers.
AMR
Contura Energy
$206.77
Investment Opinion: Should I buy AMR Today?
Based on a synthesis of the available data, AMR warrants a 'Hold' rating for most investors. The company's strong financial health and attractive forward valuation (P/E of 7.91) are positive, but these are counterbalanced by clear near-term operational challenges and significant cyclical risks. The stock may be suitable for speculative investors with a high risk tolerance who believe in a sharp cyclical recovery, but it is not appropriate for conservative portfolios seeking stability or consistent income.
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AMR 12-Month Price Forecast
The investment thesis hinges entirely on a cyclical recovery. The balance sheet provides a margin of safety, but the timing and strength of an earnings rebound are highly uncertain, leading to a neutral stance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Contura Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $268.80 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$268.80
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$165 - $269
Analyst target range
No sufficient analyst coverage available. The provided data includes recent rating actions from a few firms but lacks a consensus target price or detailed ratings distribution.
Bulls vs Bears: AMR Investment Factors
AMR presents a classic turnaround story with excellent balance sheet strength but severe near-term profitability issues. The stock's valuation appears to be pricing in a significant earnings recovery, which creates both opportunity and risk given the company's recent performance.
Bullish
- Strong Financial Health: Very low debt-to-equity (0.015) and high current ratio (4.47) provide stability.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Forward P/E of 7.91 suggests market expects significant earnings recovery.
- Positive Relative Strength: Stock has consistently outperformed S&P 500 across all measured periods.
- High Analyst EPS Growth: Average EPS estimate of $23.42 implies a major turnaround from current losses.
Bearish
- Recent Profitability Challenges: Q4 2025 net loss of $17.3M with negative gross and operating margins.
- Cyclical Industry Exposure: Metallurgical coal demand is tied to volatile steel industry cycles.
- High Short Interest: Short ratio of 6.21 indicates significant bearish sentiment from traders.
- Revenue Decline: Q4 revenue fell 15.7% YoY, reflecting operational headwinds.
AMR Technical Analysis
The stock has exhibited significant volatility over the past six months, with a strong rally from around $170 in October 2025 to a peak near $250 in January 2026, followed by a sharp correction. The 1-month performance shows a substantial gain of 31.72%, significantly outperforming the broader market, while the 3-month performance is up 6.00%. The current price of $214.24 sits near the middle of its 52-week range ($97.41 to $253.82), approximately 15.6% below its yearly high. The stock's relative strength metrics are positive across all measured periods, indicating it has consistently outperformed the S&P 500.
Beta
0.75
0.75x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-34.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$97-$254
Price range past year
Annual Return
+70.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AMR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +6.8% | +8.6% |
| 3m | -12.0% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +32.5% | +4.8% |
| 1y | +70.6% | +37.0% |
| ytd | +1.8% | +3.3% |
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AMR Fundamental Analysis
The company's recent quarterly financials show a challenging period. Revenue for Q4 2025 was $520.5 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 15.7%. The quarter resulted in a net loss of $17.3 million, with negative gross and operating margins. Financial health appears solid with a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.015 and a strong current ratio of 4.47. However, operational efficiency metrics are weak, with negative returns on assets (-0.017) and equity (-0.040) for the period, reflecting the profitability challenges.
Quarterly Revenue
$520472000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.15%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-0.01%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$17773000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is AMR Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income and EBITDA, the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The current PS ratio is 1.22, and the Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) is 1.10. The forward P/E ratio of 7.91 suggests the market is anticipating a significant recovery in earnings. Peer comparison data is not available in the provided inputs.
PE
-42.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -306x~202x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
The primary risk for AMR is its exposure to the highly cyclical metallurgical coal market, where demand and pricing are directly tied to global steel production. Recent quarterly financials show the company is already facing this downturn, with revenue declining 15.7% year-over-year and the company reporting a net loss with negative operating margins. The stock's high short ratio of 6.21 reflects substantial skepticism in the market about the timing and magnitude of any recovery. While the company's balance sheet is exceptionally strong with minimal debt, the operational risks are significant given the negative returns on assets and equity in the most recent quarter. Additionally, limited analyst coverage (only 3 analysts) reduces visibility and consensus on the company's outlook, increasing uncertainty for investors.
