Aehr Test Systems
AEHR
$63.16
+25.69%
Aehr Test Systems designs, manufactures, and markets advanced test and burn-in systems for logic, optical, and memory integrated circuits, serving the semiconductor manufacturing industry. The company is a niche player specializing in high-reliability testing solutions, particularly for the demanding Automotive and Mobility markets. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the company's strategic role in the AI infrastructure build-out, as recent major order announcements have validated its technology and sparked debate over its growth trajectory amidst a challenging near-term financial performance.…
AEHR
Aehr Test Systems
$63.16
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AEHR 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Aehr Test Systems's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $82.11 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$82.11
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$51 - $82
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is extremely limited, with data indicating only one analyst providing estimates. This lack of coverage is typical for small-cap stocks like Aehr and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The single analyst estimates revenue of $196.1 million and EPS of $1.14 for the forward period, but a consensus price target or recommendation is not available in the provided dataset. The recent institutional ratings show a mixed but generally cautious picture, with actions like William Blair upgrading to 'Outperform' in early March 2026 contrasting with earlier downgrades to 'Hold' or 'Market Perform' from firms like Craig-Hallum. This pattern suggests analyst sentiment may be bottoming or turning more positive on the back of recent AI-related order news, but the very low number of covering analysts means any single rating change carries disproportionate weight.
Bulls vs Bears: AEHR Investment Factors
The bull case for AEHR is a high-conviction, forward-looking narrative centered on its validated role in the AI infrastructure build-out, supported by extreme technical momentum and analyst projections for explosive growth. The bear case is grounded in severe and worsening near-term fundamentals, including declining revenue, negative profitability, and sustained cash burn. Currently, the bull side has stronger evidence in the price action and narrative shift, but it is almost entirely anticipatory. The single most important tension in the investment debate is the timing and magnitude of the revenue inflection. The stock price assumes a near-perfect and rapid transition from current quarterly revenue of ~$9.9 million to an annualized run-rate approaching $200 million. Any delay or shortfall in this trajectory will likely trigger a violent re-rating.
Bullish
- Massive AI Order Validation: Recent major order announcements have validated Aehr's technology in the AI infrastructure build-out, driving a 21% single-day stock surge. This provides tangible evidence of future demand and a critical role in the semiconductor supply chain, which is the core driver of the stock's recent parabolic move.
- Extreme Technical Momentum: The stock is in a powerful uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +465.31% and a 3-month surge of +100.0%. It trades at 94% of its 52-week high ($46.95), indicating sustained buying pressure and a breakout from its previous trading range, which can attract further momentum investors.
- Strong Analyst Growth Forecast: The single covering analyst projects a dramatic revenue recovery to $196.1 million and EPS of $1.14 for the forward period. This implies a massive revenue ramp from the current quarterly run-rate of ~$9.9 million, providing a fundamental growth narrative to justify the current valuation.
- Robust Balance Sheet: The company has a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 5.68 and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.088. This financial flexibility provides a buffer to weather near-term operational losses and invest in capturing the anticipated AI-driven demand without immediate solvency concerns.
Bearish
- Severe Near-Term Financial Deterioration: Recent quarterly revenue of $9.88 million represents a -26.53% year-over-year decline, and the company is unprofitable with a net income of -$3.23 million. Gross margin has compressed to 25.75% from a trailing figure of 40.6%, indicating significant operational headwinds and cash burn.
- Sustained Cash Burn & Negative ROE: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is deeply negative at -$11.91 million, and ROE is -3.18%. This indicates the company is destroying shareholder value in the near term and is dependent on its cash reserves or external financing to fund operations, a risky proposition if the anticipated recovery is delayed.
- Extreme Volatility & Overextension Risk: With a beta of 2.289, the stock is 129% more volatile than the market. Trading at $44.32, just 5.6% below its 52-week high after a +465% yearly run, the stock is highly vulnerable to a sharp technical pullback or sector-wide de-rating, which could erase gains quickly.
- Limited Analyst Coverage & Visibility: Only one analyst provides estimates, leading to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The mixed institutional rating history (e.g., upgrades to 'Outperform' vs. earlier 'Hold' downgrades) reflects high uncertainty, making the stock's narrative highly sensitive to single data points or news events.
AEHR Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 1-year price change of +465.31%. As of the latest data, the stock closed at $44.32, which places it near the top of its 52-week range of $6.27 to $46.95, trading at approximately 94% of that range. This positioning near multi-year highs reflects extreme momentum but also raises concerns about potential overextension and vulnerability to a sharp pullback. Recent momentum shows significant acceleration, with a 3-month price surge of +100.0% dramatically outpacing the more modest 1-month gain of +6.44%. This divergence suggests the explosive rally may be entering a consolidation or exhaustion phase following the massive move, though the underlying trend remains powerfully bullish. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $6.27, while immediate resistance sits at the 52-week high of $46.95; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the parabolic move. The stock exhibits extreme volatility with a beta of 2.289, meaning it is approximately 129% more volatile than the broader market, which necessitates careful risk management for investors.
Beta
2.29
2.29x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$66
Price range past year
Annual Return
+831.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AEHR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +54.5% | -0.3% |
| 3m | +178.2% | -2.0% |
| 6m | +168.9% | +3.5% |
| 1y | +831.6% | +36.2% |
| ytd | +185.0% | -0.9% |
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AEHR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has decelerated sharply and turned negative, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $9.88 million representing a -26.53% year-over-year decline. This follows a multi-quarter downtrend from peaks above $18 million, indicating significant near-term headwinds in demand; segment data shows Systems revenue of $6.76 million was the primary driver, but overall weakness persists. The company is currently unprofitable, posting a net income of -$3.23 million and a gross margin of 25.75% for the latest quarter. Margins have compressed significantly from the 40.6% trailing gross margin, and operating losses have deepened, moving the company away from profitability despite a profitable quarter in early 2024. The balance sheet shows a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 5.68 and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.088, but cash flow generation is a critical concern with trailing twelve-month free cash flow deeply negative at -$11.91 million and an ROE of -3.18%, indicating the company is burning cash and destroying shareholder value in the near term.
Quarterly Revenue
$9884000.0B
2025-11
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.26%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.25%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-11907000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is AEHR Overvalued?
Given the negative net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 4.79, while the forward PS ratio is not explicitly provided but can be inferred to be lower given analyst revenue estimates; this gap suggests the market is pricing in a significant revenue recovery. Compared to sector averages, specific industry comps are not provided in the data, making a precise premium/discount calculation impossible; however, a PS ratio of 4.8 for a small-cap, high-volatility semiconductor equipment company with negative growth appears to be pricing in future potential rather than current fundamentals. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has been extremely volatile, ranging from recent lows near 20 to highs above 69 in the past year; the current PS of 4.79 is at the very low end of its recent historical band, which could indicate the market has already priced in the recent fundamental deterioration or sees a deep value opportunity if a turnaround materializes.
PE
-72.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -111x~168x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-296.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are severe and immediate. The company is burning cash at a rate of -$11.91 million TTM, with a negative ROE of -3.18% and a recent quarterly net loss of -$3.23 million. Revenue has declined -26.53% YoY, and gross margins have compressed sharply from 40.6% to 25.75%, indicating significant pricing pressure or product mix issues. The business model is currently dependent on a handful of large system orders, creating lumpy revenue and high earnings volatility. The strong balance sheet (current ratio 5.68) provides a runway, but the cash burn rate must reverse soon to avoid financial stress.
Market & Competitive Risks are amplified by the stock's extreme valuation and volatility. Trading at a forward PE of 354.6 and EV/Sales of 25.1, the stock is priced for flawless hyper-growth. A failure to meet these lofty expectations could trigger severe multiple compression. The beta of 2.289 means AEHR is highly sensitive to broader market downturns and sector rotations away from speculative growth stocks. As a niche player in semiconductor test equipment, it faces competition from larger, better-capitalized rivals. The recent AI order news, while positive, also raises execution risk and sets a high bar for future performance.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a combination of delayed order fulfillment, continued margin pressure, and a broader market sell-off triggering a de-rating of speculative tech stocks. In this adverse scenario, the stock could retrace a significant portion of its recent gains. A realistic downside target aligns with the 52-week low of $6.27, representing a potential loss of approximately -86% from the current price of $44.32. A less severe but plausible bear case could see the stock fall to the $20-$25 range, where it consolidated in late 2025, representing a -44% to -55% decline. The high short ratio of 2.6 indicates a sizable contingent of investors betting on such an outcome.