Why Rigetti Computing Stock Could Plummet Further by 2026

An analyst has issued a stark prediction that Rigetti Computing stock is poised for significant further losses by the end of 2026. The quantum computing company, while pioneering in its field, is facing a severe valuation crisis. Despite its stock price already falling 62% from its peak, it trades at a staggering price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 779.

The company's financials reveal the core of the problem. In 2025, Rigetti generated only $7.1 million in revenue, a 34% decline from the prior year. This minimal income is dwarfed by its operating expenses of $86.7 million, leading to a massive operating loss of $84.6 million. Even on an adjusted basis, the company lost $50.5 million.

Technologically, Rigetti has made progress, achieving a gate fidelity of 99.5% in its Cepheus-1-36Q system and 99.9% in testing. However, the path to commercialization remains long. The company estimates it will take roughly three years to replicate its best test results in a commercial product, with a system offering 99.7% fidelity planned for late this year.

The core argument is that the company's sky-high valuation is completely disconnected from its current financial reality and distant commercial prospects. With such minimal revenue and substantial ongoing losses, the current market capitalization of nearly $6 billion appears unsustainable.

This analysis matters because it highlights the extreme risks of investing in pre-commercial technology companies based on future promise rather than present fundamentals. Rigetti's P/S ratio of 779 is an extreme outlier, even in the tech sector. For context, Palantir Technologies, considered expensive, trades at a P/S of 89, while industry leader Nvidia trades at a P/S of just 20.

The massive disconnect suggests the stock is priced for perfection and rapid, flawless execution of a long-term plan. Any delays in technology development, increased competition, or difficulty securing future funding could trigger a severe re-rating of the stock. The company's cash balance of $443.5 million provides a runway, but it also underscores how long the path to profitability will be.

For the quantum computing sector, a steep decline in a prominent player like Rigetti could dampen investor sentiment across the board, making it harder for all companies in the space to raise capital. It serves as a cautionary tale about the volatility and risk inherent in cutting-edge, capital-intensive tech ventures.