Nebius Stock Surges 15% on $27 Billion Meta AI Contract

Shares of Nebius Group (NBIS) surged 15% on March 16 after news broke that Meta Platforms (META) awarded the cloud infrastructure provider a colossal new contract. The deal involves Meta purchasing $12 billion worth of AI cloud computing capacity from Nebius over five years, powered by Nvidia's latest Vera Rubin processors, with deployment starting early next year.

In a major boost, Meta also committed to purchasing an additional $15 billion in data center capacity from Nebius over the same period. Nebius plans to sell this capacity to other customers first, with Meta poised to buy any surplus. This significantly expands on a prior $3 billion, five-year deal the two companies signed in December 2025.

This latest contract adds to a lucrative $19.4 billion, five-year agreement Nebius secured with Microsoft in September 2025. Combined, these deals create a revenue backlog approaching $50 billion for the period from 2027 to 2031. This is a staggering figure for a company that reported revenue of just $530 million in 2025.

Critically, Nebius appears to have the capacity to deliver. The company is aggressively expanding, estimating it will have 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of active data center capacity by the end of 2026, up from 170 MW at the end of 2025. Its contracted power capacity could exceed 3 GW this year, providing a clear path to scale.

For investors, this news transforms Nebius from a promising growth story into one with a virtually guaranteed, high-visibility revenue pipeline. The Meta deal de-risks the company's future and provides the capital needed to fund its aggressive capacity expansion, creating a powerful growth flywheel.

The financial impact is potentially enormous. If Nebius delivers on the minimum $15 billion from the new Meta deal over five years, its annual revenue by 2028 could jump to around $18 billion, surpassing current analyst estimates of $15.2 billion. This represents a monumental leap from its 2025 base.

This projected revenue surge suggests massive upside for the stock. Applying the U.S. tech sector's average sales multiple of 7.8 to the $18 billion revenue estimate implies a potential market capitalization of about $140 billion within three years. That's roughly 4.7 times its current market cap, indicating multibagger potential.